本文將探討預期平均壽命與老年人口依賴率對經濟成長的影響。過去的研究發現：在不考慮老年社會福利占所得比下，老年人口依賴率對經濟成長具有顯著影響；在不考慮老年人口依賴率下，老年社會福利占所得比對經濟成長也具有顯著影響。本文透過生命循環模型，分析預期平均壽命對消費和儲蓄的影響，進而影響經濟成長。同時，當只納入老年人口依賴率和老年社會福利占所得比時，分析其對儲蓄、人力資本累積以及經濟成長的影響。本研究將使用世界銀行、經濟合作暨發展組織和美國普查局的資料庫，進行追蹤資料的實證分析。為了解決動態模型參數估計的偏誤問題，我們將使用系統性動差估計法進行迴歸式估計。實證結果發現預期平均壽命和老年社會福利支出占所得比增長將對經濟成長造成顯著正向的影響，老年人口依賴率比的上升將對經濟成長造成顯著的負面影響。

This paper examines the influence of increasing life expectancy and old-age dependency rate on growth. Earlier empirical studies demonstrated that social security had a significant impact on growth without considering old-age dependency rate. Recent studies have found that the old-age dependency rate significantly affects growth without considering social security. The first part of this paper constructs a growth model where agents with uncertain survival and investigates how life expectancy interacts with growth and growth determinants (saving and consumption). Then, we will elaborate how old-age dependency rate and social security interact with growth and growth determinants (saving and human capital investment) under the consideration of both old-age dependency rate and social security in growth model. In panel data analysis, utilizing data from World Bank, Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, and U.S Census Bureau datasets, we develop a biased-corrected estimation in a dynamic framework and estimate this framework with system GMM estimators. The empirical evidence shows that life expectancy and social security have significant positive effects on growth while old-age dependency rate has a significant negative effect on growth.

一.中文部分.

1. 陳虹如、林富玲：<預期壽命延長與社會安全制度對長期所得水準的影響>，經濟
論文叢刊，第 35 輯第 1 期，1-31 (2007)。
2. 黃台心：《計量經濟學》，(台北市：雙業書廊有限公司，初版，2007年二月)

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