| 研究生: |
蕭宇軒 Hsiao, Yu-Hsuan |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
影響大眾運輸使用因素之研究 A Study of Factors Affecting Public Transportation Patronage |
| 指導教授: |
石豐宇
Shyr, Oliver F. |
| 學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
| 系所名稱: |
規劃與設計學院 - 都市計劃學系 Department of Urban Planning |
| 論文出版年: | 2010 |
| 畢業學年度: | 98 |
| 語文別: | 中文 |
| 論文頁數: | 100 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | 大眾運輸系統 、運量 、迴歸分析 、全球城市比較 |
| 外文關鍵詞: | public transportation system, ridership, regression analysis, a comparative analysis of global cities |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:217 下載:38 |
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近年來世界各國以汽車為主的運具發展型態,因對環境所帶來的負面衝擊,而使得逐漸轉變為朝向「大眾運輸導向發展(transit-oriented development, TOD)」型態。大眾運輸包含高速鐵路、捷運、公車、電車等公共運輸系統,而大眾運輸導向發展一般是沿捷運路線設計大眾運輸場站。我國於1996 年台北捷運系統木柵線通車起,正式邁入擁有捷運系統國家,直至今日台北捷運已有8 條運輸路線,捷運路網儼然成形;而高雄捷運系統也於2008 年通車,成為台灣第二個擁有大眾捷運系統的城市。然就近年來之觀察,高雄民眾仍多以私人運具為主要通勤之方式,此一運具選擇之習慣並未依捷運開通而有所改變,導致高雄捷運面臨運量低迷且嚴重虧損的窘境。準此,了解影響大眾運輸使用之因素便成為重要課題。
為了解影響大眾運輸使用之客觀因素,本研究透過二手資料蒐集全球城市大眾運輸系統(捷運、輕軌系統)基本資料、都市結構、其他運輸系統與社經特性和實際運量,並利用統計方法進行比較分析,企圖找出影響運量之客觀因素及其於不同城市分群中之差異。
研究結果顯示,模式配適度以線性模式最佳,對數模式次之。對於大眾捷運系統運量而言,營運站數、城市人口與生活費用指數的影響為正面顯著影響;而票價、城市人口密度與汽油價格則為負面顯著影響。又,於分群樣本中,對各分群樣本之主要影響變數皆有營運站數之多寡;而於各分群之次要影響變數中,美洲、大洋洲城市為城市人口;亞、非城市為城市人口、停車價格與汽油價格;歐洲城市則為汽油價格,此結果說明影響全球城市之大眾運輸工具使用之因素不盡相同。另外,透過判別分析方法則可發現多倫多、芝加哥、華盛頓、蒙特婁、布拉格與大阪是實際日運量較預期為佳之城市,顯示這些城市之大眾捷運系統的旅運量達一定的數量,值得進行個別案例研究,了解其成功的原因。
Due to the call of global warming effects, city planners aim at actions for reducing carbon emission. One of the approaches is to promote the usage of public transportation system toward the transit-oriented-development. Since 1996, the operation of Muzha line declared that Taiwan became a country which provided the Mass Rapid Transit (MRT) service. Up to now, Taipei developed 8 MRT lines. Since 2008 the developed and operation of Kaohsiung MRT system, Taiwan has two MRT systems. However, citizen in Kaohsiung City still rely on the personal vehicles as their daily transportation tools. This situation caused Kaohsiung MRT deficit seriously in this recent years. Hence, the studies of the factors which affect the use of public station become an important issue.
To study the issue mentioned above, this research based on the secondary data, which included the basic information of public transport system (MRT, light railway transit) around the world, structure of cities, social and economic factors and others transportation system. The data will analysis by statistical analysis which this research attempted to explore the factors of ridership of different cities.
The result shown that, the best solution is linear regression follow by log linear regression. The positive impact factors are number of station, population of cities and cost of living index, while the negative impact is the ticket price, population density and the gasoline price. Based on different analysis group, the amount of number of station is the main factor of each group. Beside the factor of number of station, each continent has different impact factors. Such as American and Oceania cities affected by the population; where Asia and Africa cities affected by the population, parking price, and gasoline prices; European cities affected by gasoline prices. These results shown the impact factors are various countries. In addition, we used discriminate analysis to found successful cities, such as Toronto, Chicago, Washington, Montreal, Prague and Osaka, in regard of the public transport usage.
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三、網站部分
2010 Price water house Coopers:http://www.ukmediacentre.pwc.com/
Benzinpreis:http://www.benzinpreis.de/statistik.phtml
City population:http://www.citypopulation.de
Colliers:http://www.colliers.com/
EUROPA - The official website of the European Union:http://europa.eu/index_en.htm
Geo Hive:http://www.geohive.com/
mercer:http://www.mercer.com/home.htm
Nation master:http://www.nationmaster.com/index.php
Pay Scale:http://www.payscale.com/rccountries.aspx
The World Bank:http://www.worldbank.org/
UBS:http://www.ubs.com/
World Gazetteer:http://www.world-gazetteer.com/wg.php
World metro bits:http://mic-ro.com/metro/index.html
XE.com:http://www.xe.com/tw/
中华人民共和国国家统计局:http://www.stats.gov.cn/
中華人民共和國香港特別行政區政府:http://www.td.gov.hk/
中華民國交通部:http://www.motc.gov.tw/
日本地下鉄協会:http://www.jametro.or.jp/index.html
台北大眾捷運股份有限公司:http://www.tbkc.gov.tw/index.asp
台北旅遊網:http://taipeitravel.net/user/Article.aspx?Lang=1&SNo=04000693
東京メトロ ホームページ:http://www.tokyometro.jp/index.html
高雄市政府交通局:http://www.tbkc.gov.tw/index.asp
高雄捷運:http://www.krtco.com.tw/