連鎖故障是歷次大停電事故的主要誘因之一，而脆弱線路對連鎖故障演化路徑的發展又起著極其關鍵的作用。為了在連鎖故障中識別電力網路潛在脆弱線路，基於複雜網絡理論和電力系統實際特性，以線路視在功率值為線路流量，並考量發電機實虛功上下限及匯流排電壓上下限，提出一種穩態交流電潮流連鎖故障模型。在此基礎上，從網絡全域和潮流功能特性兩個方面提出網路傳輸效能加權電抗係數及有效發電量作為電力網路脆弱性指標來辨識脆弱線路。最後通過3個IEEE標準測試系統對電力網路脆弱性進行評估，並與連鎖故障分析結果進行比較。結果表明基於電力網路脆弱性指標的脆弱性分析與連鎖故障所呈現的脆弱性有一定程度的關聯性。

Cascading failures are one of the main causes of major blackout incidents. Vulnerable transmission lines play a crucial role in the evolution path of cascading failures. A steady-state AC power flow cascading failure model is proposed to identify potential vulnerable lines in an electrical grid during cascading failures, based on complex network theory and the actual characteristics of power systems. In this model, line power flow is treated as the line flow, and generator reactive power limits and bus voltage limits are considered. On this basis, from the perspectives of a global network and power flow functional characteristics, a network transmission performance-weighted reactance coefficient and effective generation capacity are proposed as indicators of grid vulnerability to identify vulnerable lines. Finally, the vulnerability of three IEEE standard test systems is evaluated using these indicators, and the results are compared with cascading failure analysis. The results show that the vulnerability analysis based on the proposed grid vulnerability indicators has a certain degree of correlation with the vulnerability manifested in cascading failures.

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