氣候暖化透過多種方式影響全球的生態系統、群聚結構及生物個體。在氣候暖化的情況下，生物被預期往高海拔或兩極移動。臺灣為島嶼地形，土地面積有限，沿海拔移動可能為生物適應氣候變遷的主要方式。本研究探討(一)臺灣過去五十年之氣候改變。(二)臺灣囓齒目動物分布是否如氣候暖化之預期往高海拔移動?(三)臺灣囓齒目動物海拔分布變化與生物特性之關係；(四)在溫室氣體排放減緩的RCP 2.6，以及溫室氣體排放更加嚴重的RCP 8.5情境下，利用MaxEnt預測臺灣囓齒目動物的海拔分布及物種豐富度之變化。本研究比較Kano (1940)以及特生中心(1992-2009)之生物普查資料發現，僅5種(56%, 共9種可供比較)囓齒目動物海拔分布上限上升、 7種(64%,共11種可供比較)海拔分布下限上升，未充分反映氣候暖化之預期，尤其海拔下限上升無法排除棲地改變之影響。但整體而言，物種豐富度之峰值仍有往高海拔移動之趨勢。本研究分析吻肛長、Kano (1940)物種海拔分布重心、棲地及活動時間等生物特性，僅物種活動時間與其海拔上限變化有關，晝行性物種上限上升幅度大於夜行性物種。藉由MaxEnt進行物種分布預測發現，現今至2070年，在RCP 2.6情境下，8種(67%)物種平均海拔上升，而RCP 8.5情境下，9種(75%)物種平均海拔上升，2種情境皆顯示中海拔地區之物種豐富度下降。在空間尺度方面，發現RCP 2.6情境下，臺灣中央山脈西側地區物種豐富度將減少，而在RCP 8.5情境下，臺灣中央山脈北部及西南側的地區物種豐富度減少，東南部將會略微增加。

Species have been observed to move upward and polewards due to climate warming. However, such evidence is scarce for endotherm or from tropical areas. We investigated whether Taiwan’s Rodentia have moved to higher elevation as expected from climate warming. Mountain temperature in Taiwan has increased for 0.30°C for the past 50 years (1960-2009). For the study period (1925-1933 to 1992-2009), 5 species (56%, out of 9 species in consideration) shifted their upper elevational boundary upward; 7 species (64%, out of 11 species in consideration) contracted their lower boundary upward. The peak of species richness shifted to higher elevation. Biological traits, e.x. snout vent length, activity time, diet types, and habitat types, showed little correlation with species boundary changes, except that diurnal species shifted their upper boundaries more than nocturnal species. We applied MaxEnt to model species distribution changes under RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Most species (67% and 75% in RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 respectively) will move to higher ground in 2070; however, species richness will decline in the west part of Central Mountain Range under RCP 2.6 scenario and decline in the north part of Central Mountain Range under RCP 8.5 scenario from current to 2070.

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