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研究生: 鄭伊竣
CHENG, YI-CHUN
論文名稱: 融合多源遙測資料與樣區特徵空間對位之堆疊集成學習推估框架:以高屏地區森林地上部碳儲存密度為例
Using Multi-Source Remote Sensing Data and Plot-Based Feature-Space Alignment with a Stacking Ensemble Learning Framework for Estimating Forest Aboveground Carbon Density in the Kaohsiung–Pingtung Region
指導教授: 吳治達
WU, Chih-Da
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 工學院 - 測量及空間資訊學系
Department of Geomatics
論文出版年: 2026
畢業學年度: 114
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 111
中文關鍵詞: 森林碳儲量估算 、多源遙測資料整合 、堆疊泛化集成學習 、空間對位 、SHAP 可解釋性
外文關鍵詞: Forest carbon stock estimation, Multi-source remote sensing data integration, Stacking ensemble learning, Spatial alignment, SHAP interpretability
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  • 森林碳儲量之空間化估算為碳收支核算與氣候變遷減緩的重要基礎。本研究以臺灣高屏地區森林為對象,整合地面調查、空載光達、Landsat 8、Sentinel-1 與地形資料,建構結合樣區空間對位、多源遙測及堆疊泛化集成學習之地上部碳儲存密度(Aboveground Carbon Density, AGCD)估算架構。
    為降低森林環境下 GNSS 定位不確定性造成之樣區與遙測資料錯位,本研究建立以林分結構相似性為核心之移動窗口空間對位方法。搜尋半徑敏感性分析顯示 20 公尺後結果趨穩,因此以 30 公尺為主要搜尋範圍、20 公尺作跨半徑收斂檢核;223 個樣區經對位與品質篩選後保留 177 個。主要以未參與對位之光學、SAR 與地形特徵評估對位效果,平均驗證 R2 由 0.27 提升至 0.30,測試 R2 由 0.15 提升至 0.18,且七種演算法測試結果皆改善;光達特徵之補充比較亦由 0.58 提升至 0.64。
    於相同空間對位位置整合光學、SAR 與地形特徵後,七種演算法平均驗證 R2 由 0.64 提升至 0.71。以七種基學習器之折外預測建構堆疊集成模型,CatBoost 元學習器之十折平均測試 R2達 0.78,進一步選定之主模型於驗證集與外部測試集之 R2 分別為 0.89 與 0.79,顯示其具良好之預測表現與泛化能力。兩階段 SHAP 近似溯源顯示光達貢獻 75.5%,P90 為最重要單一變數。QRF75 雖降低高值樣本之 MAE 與 RMSE,但加深低估 Bias 並降低其他樣本精度,故未納入最終主模型。
    主模型產製之 2018 與 2023 年 30 公尺 AGCD 圖估算全區碳儲量分別為 52.97 與 55.65 百萬 Mg C,十折相對不確定性平均低於 6%。2023 年 AGCD 與屏東縣國土功能分區整合後,國土保育地區第一類與第二類之平均 AGCD 分別為 119.14 與 109.88 Mg C ha⁻¹,顯示空間連續碳密度資訊可支援高碳儲存區保全、土地利用碳風險辨識與增匯潛力初步篩選。此外,本研究採用 BEF = 1.4,可能使 AGCD 絕對值偏高,因此在解讀碳儲存量結果時需將此因素納入考量。

    This study developed an aboveground carbon density (AGCD) estimation framework for the Kaohsiung–Pingtung region of Taiwan by integrating ground inventory, airborne LiDAR, Landsat 8, Sentinel-1 SAR, terrain data, plot spatial alignment, and stacking ensemble learning. A moving-window alignment based on stand-structure similarity used 30 m as the main search extent and 20 m for cross-radius convergence after sensitivity analysis showed stabilization beyond 20 m. After quality filtering, 177 of 223 plots were retained. Alignment was primarily evaluated with optical, SAR, and terrain features not used in matching: average validation R² increased from 0.27 to 0.30 and external-test R² from 0.15 to 0.18, with all seven algorithms improving on the test set. A supplementary LiDAR-only comparison increased validation R² from 0.58 to 0.64. Multi-source integration further raised validation R² to 0.71. The CatBoost stacking model achieved a ten-fold average test R² of 0.78, and the selected main model achieved validation and external-test R² values of 0.89 and 0.79. LiDAR contributed 75.5% in two-stage approximate SHAP attribution, with P90 as the most influential variable. The 2018 and 2023 maps estimated 52.97 and 55.65 million Mg C, respectively, with mean relative uncertainty below 6%. The 2023 map also revealed clear AGCD differences among Pingtung County national land functional zones, demonstrating the planning value of spatially explicit carbon information.

    摘要 I ABSTRACT II 誌謝 V 目錄 VII 表目錄 X 圖目錄 XI 第一章、前言 1 1.1 動機 1 1.2 研究目的 2 第二章、文獻回顧 3 2.1 森林碳儲量之重要性與估算基礎 3 2.1.1 森林碳儲量與氣候變遷 3 2.1.2 傳統地面調查 4 2.1.3 遙測技術導入 6 2.2 多源遙測於森林碳儲量估算之應用 8 2.2.1 光學遙測 8 2.2.2 合成孔徑雷達 9 2.2.3 空載光達 11 2.2.4 整合多源遙測資料 13 2.3 森林碳儲量估算方法 15 2.3.1 傳統統計迴歸方法 15 2.3.2 機器學習演算法 17 2.3.3 堆疊泛化集成學習 (Stacking Ensemble) 19 2.4 文獻小結與研究缺口 20 第三章、研究材料與方法 22 3.1 研究試區 22 3.2 研究架構 23 3.3 研究資料庫建置 24 3.3.1 樹木地面調查資料 25 3.3.2 光學衛星影像:Landsat 8 26 3.3.3 雷達衛星影像:Sentinel-1 30 3.3.4 空載光達點雲 34 3.3.5 地形變數 38 3.4 樣區移動窗口林分結構空間對位 40 3.5 重要特徵篩選 43 3.6 機器學習演算法 44 3.7 堆疊泛化集成學習 46 3.8 模型驗證與評估 48 3.9 模型可解釋性分析 49 3.10 推估圖產製與不確定性分析 51 3.11 國土功能分區森林碳儲存空間統計分析 52 第四章、結果 53 4.1 樣區空間對位結果 53 4.2 樣區碳儲存量敘述統計 55 4.3 樣區空間對位對模型預測表現之影響 57 4.4 多源遙測特徵對模型預測表現之影響 61 4.5 堆疊集成學習模型表現與主模型選定 63 4.6 分位數隨機森林對高值預測偏差之評估 65 4.7 SHAP 變數重要性分析 67 4.8 空間碳儲量推估結果與不確定性分析 72 4.9 屏東縣國土功能分區之森林碳儲存概況 76 第五章、討論 78 5.1 樣區空間對位成果 78 5.2 森林碳儲存模型成果 79 5.3 重要變數分析 81 5.4 森林碳儲存空間資訊於國土功能分區之應用 82 5.5 研究優勢與限制 83 5.6 未來展望 85 第六章、結論 87 參考文獻 88

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