本研究在探討新北市房價的合理性，我們觀察1998年到2012年新北市的平均房價，認為2011年的房價可能是不合理的，我們不願意作直覺判斷，希望朝建構數學模型來對房價的合理性作實證研究，經採用複迴歸分析，篩選攸關房價的重要變數，如房租、營建成本指數、家庭可支配所得、股價指數、經濟成長率及國民所得等，來作為模型的自變數，並以2001年至2007年當作為衡量合理房價模型的基礎。實證研究結果，發現新北市2011年的房價為每坪19.86萬元較市價每坪27.48萬元超出約38.39%， 我們又以95%的信賴區間，計算合理房價的範圍，應該在每坪18.79萬元到每坪20.92萬元之間， 顯示2011年市價每坪27.48萬元已超出合理房價範圍，我們也發現2009年可能是不合理房價的第1年。

This research aims to find the rationality of housing prices of New Taipei City. By observing housing price data of New Taipei City from 1998 to 2012, we believe that 2011 is most likely not the first year with unreasonable housing prices. As such, we aim to construct a model to test and verify the rationality of the 2008-2011 housing prices by means of multiple regression analysis. We include rent, the construction cost index, family disposable income, the stock price index, economic growth rate and GNP as independent variables and find 2001-2007 is a benchmark by which reasonable housing prices can be measured. We further find that the reasonable housing price of New Taipei City in 2011 is NT$198,600 per pin (=3.31m2), which is 38.39% lower than the trade housing price of NT$274,800 per pin and we recognized that this trade housing price is unreasonable for its out of the lower NT$187,900 and upper limits NT$209,200 of prediction interval under 95% confidence interval. This study reveals that 2009 is the first year the housing prices become unreasonable.

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