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研究生: 陳業統
Chen, Yeh-Tung
論文名稱: 多變量製程能力指標在評估環境風險上之研究
Evaluating Environmental Risk Using Multivariate Process Capability Indices
指導教授: 潘浙楠
Pan, Jeh-Nan
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 統計學系
Department of Statistics
論文出版年: 2003
畢業學年度: 91
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 77
中文關鍵詞: 環境風險評估指標多變量製程能力指標
外文關鍵詞: Multivariate environmental risk assessment indic, Multivariate process capability indices
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  • 科技文明進步,固然提高了人類生活水準,但卻造成環境品質的日益惡化,近年來隨著環保意識的高漲,世界各國均開始專注環境污染問題對生態及生命所造成的影響及損害,並訂定相關的罰則以防止環境污染更進一步惡化。因此如何建立客觀的環境風險評估指標以提供作為環境品質的有效監控與事前防範的參考,便成為重要的研究課題。
    近幾年來,各種單變量製程能力指標及多變量製程能力指標,已被廣泛地應用在評估生產製程表現之良窳上,但甚少學者將其應用於評估環保表現上,特別是具有多個污染變數之環境風險評估。
    本研究參考現行環保標準之準則,並利用田口方法之信噪比及前置管制圖觀念,模擬建構出一環境風險警戒線,作為監控空氣及其他環境污染的標準。另外,本研究以生產製程上望小特性之製程能力指標為基礎,探討並比較其他學者所提出之多變量製程能力指標,再配合環境風險警戒線,建構出一套評估環境風險的指標。 最後,本研究以松山地區空氣品質的監測為例,說明如何利用環境風險警戒線及評估指標之對照表,可及早偵測出不同污染源對空氣品質可能的影響,以達到有效監控環境品質與事前的防範之目標。研究結果可供未來政府決策單位及業界在監控環境污染資料及評估環保表現等實務工作上時之參考。

    In recent years, the recognition of environmental issues has become a global concern. With the advent of high-technology era, consumers are increasingly concerned about the environmental impact of the products they use, and major organizations and corporations around the world are starting to systematically review the environmental performance of their supplies based on the regulations stipulated by Environmental Protection Agency of each country. In order to prevent further deterioration of environmental contamination, the establishment of environmental risk assessment indices serving as a key reference for monitoring environmental performance becomes an important research topic.

    Although the application of statistical process control tools to environmental process control and management has been noted before, and a few authors offer a deeper discussion of how a broad range of quality control charts can be applied to environmental management. However, both the univariate and multivariate process capability indices(to our knowledge) have not been discussed in this context before, especially the environment risk indices for assessing potential danger when several pollutants coexist.

    Several multivariate process capability indices proposed by Kocherlakota and Kocherlakota(1991), Niverthi and Dey(1995), have been thoroughly discussed and compared and a table showing the frequencies of occurrence vs. five ranks of environmental risks has also been constructed.

    Finally, a compute program using R language is developed to calculate the multivariate indices and a numeric example has been illustrated to show the application of these indices in early detection of air pollution in Taiwan area. Hopefully, it can provide a useful reference for the decision makers in government and industries.

    摘要 第一章 緒論 1 1.1 研究背景與動機 1 1.2 研究目標 2 1.3 論文架構 2 第二章 相關文獻探討與回顧 5 2.1 多變量常態分配及其檢定 5 2.1.1 多變量常態分配 5 2.1.2 多變量常態分配之檢定 6 2.2 製程能力指標 8 2.2.1 單變量(單一品質特性)製程能力指標 8 2.2.2 Krishnamoorthi的單一變量製程能力指標 9 2.2.3 多變量(多重品質特性)製程能力指標 10 2.2.4 Kocherlakota et al.的二變量製程能力指標(KK) 11 2.2.5 Niverthi 與Dey的二變量製程能力指標(ND) 11 2.3 前置管制圖(Pre-Control Chart) 13 2.4 多變量統計管制圖-Hotelling’s T2管制圖 15 2.5 常態轉換法 16 2.5.1 Box-Cox常態轉換法之介紹 16 2.2.2 多變量資料常態轉換法之介紹 17 2.6 簡單線性迴歸分析 18 2.7 信號與噪音比(Signal-to-Noise Ratio: S/N Ratio) 20 2.8 空氣品質之概況 21 2.8.1 風險評估之意義 21 2.8.2 良好環境指標之特性 21 2.8.3 現行空氣污染指標—PSI(Pollutant Standards Index) 22 2.8.4 空氣污染物的產生與危害 23 第三章 環境風險警戒線之設定 26 3.1 空氣品質監測資料的基本敘述與數學符號定義及說明 27 3.1.1 空氣品質監測資料的基本敘述 27 3.1.2 空氣品質監測資料格式 27 3.1.3 本章數學符號定義與說明 28 3.2 空氣品質監測資料之確認及審核 32 3.3 信號與噪音比(S/N Ratip)之導入與應用 33 3.4 前置管制圖觀念之導入與應用 35 3.5 以模擬方式建構環境風險警戒線 36 3.6 環境風險警戒線設定之數學模式探討 37 3.6.1 環境風險警戒線之設定 37 3.6.2 環境風險警戒線之探討 43 3.7 小結與探討 45 第四章 環境風險評估指標之建立與實例探討 46 4.1 環境風險評估指標之模擬設定 46 4.2 環境風險評估指標之模擬探討與分析 54 4.3 建構環境風險評估指標與落入新黃色警示區天數之對照表 55 4.3.1 環境風險評估指標之簡單迴歸式的建立 55 4.3.2 建構環境風險指標對照表 59 4.3.3 判斷環境風險評估指標之表現準則 64 4.4 利用R電腦軟體建立環境風險評估指標 64 4.4.1 R軟體簡介 64 4.4.2 環境風險指標之計算流程 65 4.4.3 實例說明 67 第五章 結論與未來研究方向 69 5.1 結論 69 5.2 未來研究方向 70 參考文獻 71 附錄 74

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