確保總體物價的穩定是貨幣政策的核心目標，然而此目標能否達成，高度仰賴央行定錨通膨預期的能力。因此，本文旨在探討通膨預期是否具有穩定性，為了衡量通膨預期的定錨程度，本文以 SVAR 模型（Structural VAR）識別出外生的通膨衝擊，進而以通膨預期對通膨衝擊的敏感度作為衡量通膨預期定錨程度的指標。本文考慮了 17 個國家的資料，研究發現近年來美國、韓國的通膨預期並不穩固，此外，法國、加拿大與日本亦於觀察期間出現通膨預期定錨程度短暫弱化的現象。然而，其餘國家的通膨預期皆相當穩定，尤其是歐元區國家。再來，我們使用動態追蹤資料模型探討影響通膨預期穩定性的關鍵變數，結果顯示通膨會顯著影響通膨預期的定錨程度。本文進一步分析不同的通膨環境下，定錨通膨預期的能力是否具有不對稱性，實證結果揭示不對稱性的存在，在通膨下通膨預期的定錨程度增強；相反地，在通縮下通膨預期的定錨程度弱化。

Ensuring price stability is the core objective of monetary policy. However, the achievement of this objective highly depends on the central bank's ability to anchor inflation expectations. Therefore, this article aims to empirically study whether inflation expectations remain stable over time. To measure the degree of anchoring of inflation expectations, we employ a Structural VAR model to identify exogenous inflation shocks, and use the sensitivity of inflation expectations to inflation shocks as an indicator of the anchoring degree of inflation expectations.
Using data from 17 countries, the results show that inflation expectations in the United States and South Korea have become less firmly anchored in recent years. In addition, France, Canada, and Japan also experienced temporary weakenings in the anchoring degree of inflation expectations during the sample period. Nevertheless, inflation expectations in the remaining countries remain relatively stable, particularly among Eurozone countries.
Furthermore, we employ a dynamic panel data model to examine the key determinants affecting the stability of inflation expectations. The results indicate that inflation significantly influences the anchoring degree of inflation expectations. This study further analyzes whether the ability to anchor inflation expectations exhibits asymmetry under different inflation environments. The findings reveal asymmetric effects: anchoring strengthens during inflationary periods, whereas it weakens during deflationary periods.

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