| 研究生: |
林偉仁 Lin, Wei-Jen |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
資本預算之營運槓桿選擇權評價 The Valuation of Operating Leverage Option in Strategic Asset Allocation |
| 指導教授: |
王明隆
Wang, Ming-Long Andrew |
| 學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
| 系所名稱: |
管理學院 - 財務金融研究所 Graduate Institute of Finance |
| 論文出版年: | 2008 |
| 畢業學年度: | 96 |
| 語文別: | 英文 |
| 論文頁數: | 74 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | 實質選擇權 、不可逆成本 、營運槓桿 |
| 外文關鍵詞: | Operating leverage, Real option, Irreversible cost |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:156 下載:5 |
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本研究發展兩期離散式資本預算之評價模型,企業可藉由內含之營運槓桿選擇權調整其生產要素-勞動及資本,以達投資計畫價值及營運槓桿之最佳化,其營運槓桿選擇權包含遞延選擇權、擴充選擇權、放棄選擇權及保留選擇權。在市場風險因子呈幾何布朗運動下,可運用其機率密度函數與期望值方法,由數值微積分求得營運槓桿選擇權價值及企業之最適營運槓桿。本論文亦研究營運槓桿選擇權如何影響企業最適營運風險之決策,且與忽略營運槓桿選擇權之投資計畫比較營運風險分散效果。
研究結果發現,營運槓桿選擇權不但能提高投資計畫價值,亦可降低期初資本投入及投資計畫之營運風險。再者,當市場波動率高時,期初投入較低的資本能有效的提高計畫價值,反之則反。投資過多資本相較於投資過少資本之計畫價值來的大,但營運風險亦大;投資過少資本之計畫價值顯著地被營運槓桿選擇權所影響。另外,當市場波動率低時,企業應著重評估期初資本投入量之精準度;當市場波動率高時,企業除了評估期初資本投入量之精準度外,亦須著重評估計畫期間之擴充、保留及放棄選擇權對投資計畫所帶來之價值。
In this article we consider a two-period investment project in which we include the option to wait, option to expand, option mothball, and option to abandon. In addition we also specify the optimal inherent operating risk measured by the degree of operating leverage in an investment project for a more precise evaluation of the feasibility. We assume that the market uncertainty follows the geometric browning motion, and the managerial flexibility, or the operating leverage option, is the flexibility to optimally control the production inputs, capital and labor, for maximizing project NPV. We adopt the Numerical Calculus to solve the project value with and without the managerial flexibility to specify the value of the operating leverage option and the optimal degree of operating leverage of the firm.
We show that the operating leverage option can enhance the project value and diversify the inherent operating risk. Our numerical example also shows that lower initial capital investment would be suitable when the volatility is high, and the converse is also true. Moreover, overinvestment is more valuable than underinvestment in an investment project, but the overinvestment brings higher operating risk, while the underinvestment creates the potential enhancement on project NPV in the future. In addition, when a firm overinvests or underinvests an investment project, it should focus mainly on the accuracy of the initial capital investment when the volatility is low, while it also needs to focus on the expanding, mothballing, and abandoning strategies when the volatility is high.
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