供應鏈之中存在著許多不確定性，其中最主要的因素歸因於客戶的需求的隨機性，由於顧客需求之變異對於供應鏈成本之影響甚巨，故在模式中考慮顧客需求預測極為重要。本研究探討在需求不確定下供應鏈需求預測與存貨配置問題，期藉由需求預測與兩階段隨機規劃，使供應鏈之整體期望成本最低，與過去供應鏈設計研究不同的是，本研究在求解此隨機規劃之前，先由歷史資料預測顧客需求，之後再進行最佳配送策略之求解，藉此改善傳統假設顧客需求機率分佈已知之假設。本研究採用蒙地卡羅限界法(Monte Carlo Bounding Techniques)求解，測試此兩階段隨機規劃問題，並透過實證研究驗證整體概念之實用性。

In this research, we consider the supply chain inventory configuration and demand forecast recognizing customer stochasticity. We first forecast customer demand from historical data and formulate the problem as a two-stage stochastic linear program model. The resulting two-stage stochastic linear program model is solved by the Monte Carlo Bounding Techniques with both Common Random Number (CRN) and Independent Random Number (IRN) methods to determine the optimal distribution strategy. To gain insight into the problem and to intuitively understand the behavior of the proposed solution scheme, we empirically apply this framework on a three-tier supply chain to evaluate the practicability of the proposed framework. Numerical results together with the salient conclusions are presented and discussed.

一、 中文部分
1.許英傑(2004) ，零售創新-7-ELEVEN成功之秘，台北：中國生產力公司。
2.許祖棟(2006)，「蓄冷式低溫物流系統之特性與成本分析」，國立交通大學交通運輸研究所碩士論文。
3.陳建華(2008)，「支援向量機於超商存貨管理之應用。」，嶺東科技大學行銷與流通管理研究所碩士輪文。
4.陳惠國(2009)，網路與物流分析，台北：五南書局。
5.劉蔚虹、劉立(2008)，「指數平滑法在銷售預算中的應用」，中國管理信息化，第十一卷第二期，頁84-86。
6.傅和彥 (2008)，生產與作業管理：建立產品與服務標竿，修訂五版，台北：前程文化。
7.黃惠民、楊伯中(2008)，供應鏈存貨系統設計與管理，台中：滄海書局。
8.黎漢林(2004)，供應鏈管理與決策-最佳化方法之運用,台北：儒林圖書有限公司。
9.賴士葆(1994)，生產/作業管理-理論與實務，台北：華泰書局。

二、 英文部分
1.Aviv, Y. (2001), “The Effect of Collaborative Forecasting on Supply Management Chain Performance, “ Management Science, 47(10), pp. 1326~1343.
2.Birge, J. (1997), “Stochastic Programming Computation and Applications,” INFORMS Journal on Coomputing, 9(2), pp.111~133.
3.Chambers, J., Mullick, S., Smith, D. (1971), “How to Choose the Right Forecasting Technique,” Harvard Business Review Article, 49(July–August), pp.45~74.
4.Charnes, A. (1959), “chance-constrained programming,” Management Science, 6(1), pp.73~79.
5.Guillen, G., Mele, F. D., Bagajewicz, M. J., Espuna, A., Puigjaner, L. (2005), “Multiobjective supply chain design under uncertainty,” Chemical Engineering Science, 60(6), pp. 1535 ~1553.
6.Gullu, R. (1996), “On the value of information in dynamic production inventory problems under forecast evolution,” Naval Research Logistics, 43(2), pp.289~303.
7.Gupta, A., Maranas, C. (2003), “Managing demand uncertainty in supply chain planning,” Computers & Chemical Engineering, 27(8-9), pp. 1219~1227.
8.Holloway, C. (1979), Decision Making Under Uncertainty: Models and Choices, Stanford: Prentic Hall.
9.Jha, J.K. and Shanker, K. (2009), “Two-echelon supply chain inventory model with controllable lead time and service level constraint,” Computers & Industrial Engineering, 57(3), pp.1096~1104.
10.Karoonsoontawog, A. and Waller, S. T. (2005), “Comparison of system- and user-optimal stochastic dynamic network design models using Monte Carlo Bounding Techniques,” Transportation Research Record, 1923 , pp.91-102.
11.Kalvelagen, E. (2003), Two Stage Stochastic Linear Programming With Gams, Amsterdam Optimization Modeling Group LLC.
12.Korpela, J., and Tuominen, M. (1996), “Inventory forecasting with a multiple criteria decision tool,” International Journal of Production Economics, 45(1-3), pp.159~168.
13.Kouvelis, P. And Milner, J. (2002), “Supply chain capacity and outsourcing decisions: the dynamic interplay of demand and supply uncertainty,”IIE Transactions, 34, pp.717~728.
14.Liang, W. Y, Huang, C.C. (2006), “Agent-based demand forecast in multi-echelon supply chain,” Decision Support Systems, 42(1), pp.390~407.
15.Lida, T., and Zipkin, P. H. (2006), “Approximate solutions of a dynamic forecast-inventory model,” Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, 8(4), pp.407~425.
16.Lodree, E., Jangz, W. and Kleinz, C. (2004), “Minimizing response time in a two-stage supply chain system with variable lead time and stochastic demand,” International Journal of Production Research, 42(11), pp. 2263~2278.
17.Mak, K., Morton, D.P., Wood, R.K. (1999), “Monte Carlo Bounding Techniques for Determining Solution Quality in Stochastic Programs,” Operations Research Letters, 24, pp.47~56.
18.Matsuo, H. (1996), “Forecasting and Inventory Management of Short Life-Cycle Products,” Operations Research, 44(1), pp. 131~150.
19.Panne, V., Popp, W. (1963), “Minimum cost cattle feed under probabilistic protein constraints,” Management Science, 9(3), pp.405~430.
20.Petkov, B. and Maranas, C. (1998), “Design of Single-Product Campaign Batch Plants under Demand Uncertainty,” AIChE Journal, 44(4), pp.896~911.
21.Pflug, G. (1996), Optimization Of Stochastic Models: The Interface Between Simulation and Optimization, Norwell: Kluwer Academic Publishers.
22.Simchi-Levi, D., Kaminsky, P., Simchi-Levi, E. (2004), Managing the supply chain: the definitive guide for the business professional, United States of America: McGraw-Hill.
23.Simchi-Levi, D., Kaminsky, P., Simchi-Levi.E (2007), Designing and managing the supply chain, York: McGraw-Hill New.
24.Stancu-Minasian, I.M. (1984), Stochastic programming with multiple objective functions, Bucharest: Editura Academiei.
25.Sodhi, M.S. and Tang, C.S. (2009), “Modeling supply-chain planning under demand uncertainty using stochastic programming: Asurvey motivated by asset–liability management,” Int. J. Production Economics, 121(2), pp.728~738.
26.Stevenson, W. J. (2007), Operations Management, New York: McGraw-Hill.
27.Tapiero, C. (1988), Applied Stochastic Models and Control In Management, New York: North-Holland.
28.Toktay, L. B. and Wein, L. M. (2001), “Analysis of a forecasting-production-inventory system with stationary demand,” Management Science, 47(9), pp.1268~1281.
29.Tsiakis, P. ,Shah, N. and Pantelides, C. C. (2001), “Design of Multi-echelon Supply Chain Networks under Demand Uncertainty,” Industrial & Engineering Chemistry Research, 40(16), pp 3585~3604.
30.Van slyke, R. M., and Wets, R. (1969), “L-shaped Linear Programs With Applications to Optimal Control and Stochastic Programming,” Siam Journal on Applied Mathematics, 17(4), pp.638~663.
31.Waters, C. D .J. (1992), Inventory Control and Management, New York: John Wiley & Sons.
32.Waters, D. (2003), Inventory Control and management, United Kingdom: John Wiley & Sons.
33.Wild, T. (2003), Best Practice in Inventory Management, New York: John Wiley & Sons.