摘要
2008年金融海嘯後，國際秩序因地緣政治因素而改變，故美國政府於2012年1月首次宣布重返亞太政策。隨後國際緊張局勢於2012年9月中日釣島主權爭議中達到高點。如同雷根政府在1980年代宣布星戰計劃後，導致美蘇軍備競賽; 歐巴馬政府的重返亞太政策，也開啟了新一輪的軍備競賽。本研究學生於2012年12月即已將研究方向寫於入學申請時之研究計畫中，今以賽局理論及52週高價動能來檢視樣本期間賽局理論之預測能力及報酬與動能關係。

研究期間包含雷根政府星戰計畫，自1981年1月20日至1984年1月20日止及歐巴馬重返亞太，自2012年9月7日至2015年9月4日止。研究發現不需傳統財報分析及計量方法，僅以賽局分析即能於預先精準預測。另洛克希德馬丁股價亦持續表現優於S&P500指數且也隨著大國間軍事角力日趨加劇，洛克希德馬丁動能一直仍然維持穩定不減。

關鍵字: 全球宏觀策略、 賽局理論、 52週高價動能策略

Abstract
In the wake of the global financial crisis of 2008, the international order has begun to change geopolitically. In January 2012 the Pivot to Asia policy was first introduced by the United States, and then intensive international relations culminated in the Sino-Japanese Diaoyutai Islands sovereignty dispute of September, 2012. Like Reagan’s announcement of Star Wars Program to trigger an arms race between U.S.A and Russian in 1980s, Obama’s Pivot to Asia Policy in 2012 has been sparked a new one between U.S.A, China and their allies respectively in 21st century. Welcome to the golden age of the Global Macro ---a superpowers’ policies-driven era. This research on Lockheed Martin was included in my study plan proposed for entry to Graduate Institute of Finance, National Cheng Kung University on 20 DEC, 2012. Now, Game Theory and the 52-Weekly High Momentum Strategy stand out as important methods for examining the forecasting ability of game theory, time-varying interrelationship between the return and duration of momentum of Lockheed Martin in the sample periods. The dissertation aims to help institutional investors deliver alpha and sovereignty wealth funds meet their strategical targets.

The study covers the periods from 20 January, 1981, to 20 January, 1984, for Reagan’s Star Wars Program; and 7 September, 2012, to 4 September, 2015, for Obama’s Pivot to Asia policy. During the sample periods, the study is characterized by the features below. First of all, without recourse to conventional financial report analysis and quantitative methods, but rather only through the strategic analysis of game theory it was able to precisely engender predictable outcomes in advance. Another is the return has continually outperformed the S & P 500 Index. Finally, because current major actors’ military competitions are intensifying, the duration of momentum is stable and unabated.

Key words: Global Macro Strategy; Game Theory; 52-Weekly High Momentum Strategy

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