本研究探討票券市場中，在一級售票市場供給有限且二手轉售市場存在的情境下，售票方、投機者與消費者之間的策略互動關係。近年熱門演唱會與大型展演活動常出現門票快速售罄與高價轉售現象，顯示官方票價、票券供給與消費者需求之間存在落差。當官方票價低於消費者估值時，投機者可能透過一級市場購票並於二手市場轉售以獲取價差，進而影響消費者購票機會與市場價格結構，以及整體票券市場之資源配置效率。

為分析此現象，本研究以售票方為市場領導者，投機者為跟隨者，建立雙期 Stackelberg 賽局模型，並將消費者區分為一般型消費者與策略型消費者；前者僅依據第一期效用決定是否購票，後者則會比較第一期官方市場與第二期二手市場之效用，選擇效用較高的時間點購買。研究透過逆向歸納法推導投機者最適購票數量、二手市場均衡價格，以及售票方在不同策略下的利潤表現，並比較不採取額外行動、提高官方票價以嚇阻投機者，以及限制單一買家購票上限等三種策略之效果。

研究結果顯示，市場供不應求雖是投機者進入市場的重要背景，但不代表投機者必然能透過轉售獲利；其進場誘因會受到官方第一期票價、票券供給量、策略型消費者延遲購買意願與二手市場需求強度影響。進一步而言，售票方可透過提高官方票價或設計限購機制，降低投機者進場與套利之可能性；然而，不同策略在售票方利潤、消費者福利與市場管理成效之間仍存在權衡關係。因此，售票方在制定票價與銷售限制時，應同時考量投機行為抑制結果、消費者購票公平性，以及整體市場效率之平衡。

This study investigates the strategic interactions among ticket sellers, speculators, and heterogeneous consumers in a ticket market characterized by limited primary-market ticket supply and the existence of a secondary market. When official ticket prices are set below consumers' valuations, speculators may purchase tickets in the primary market and resell them at higher prices, thereby affecting consumers' purchasing opportunities, market price formation, and the allocation of market resources. To examine these interactions, this study develops a two-period Stackelberg game in which the ticket seller acts as the market leader and the speculator acts as the follower. Consumers are classified into non-strategic consumers, who base their purchasing decisions solely on first-period utility, and strategic consumers, who compare the utilities of purchasing in the primary and secondary markets before deciding when to buy.

Using backward induction, this study derives the speculator's optimal ticket purchase quantity, the equilibrium resale price, and the ticket seller's profit under different strategies. Three strategies are examined: maintaining the current pricing policy, increasing official ticket prices to deter speculative entry, and imposing purchase limits on individual buyers.

The results show that excess demand alone does not guarantee profitable resale opportunities. Speculators' incentives to enter the market depend on the official ticket price, ticket supply, strategic consumers' willingness to delay purchases, and demand in the secondary market. Although raising ticket prices and implementing purchase limits can reduce speculative entry and arbitrage opportunities, these strategies involve trade-offs among the ticket seller's profitability, consumer welfare, and market governance effectiveness. Therefore, ticket sellers should consider these trade-offs when designing pricing and sales policies to deter speculation, improve consumer access to tickets, and enhance overall market efficiency.

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