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研究生: 林沛雯
Lin, Pei-Wen
論文名稱: 考量二維Wiener退化過程 預燒實驗之分類方法
Classification Methods for Burn-in Testing Considering Two-Dimensional Wiener Degradation Processes
指導教授: 胡政宏
Hu, Cheng-Hung
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 工業與資訊管理學系
Department of Industrial and Information Management
論文出版年: 2025
畢業學年度: 113
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 65
中文關鍵詞: 預燒實驗二維Wiener過程判別分析衰退路徑衰退分析
外文關鍵詞: Burn-in test, Two-Dimensional Wiener Process, Degradation analysis, Discriminant analysis
相關次數: 點閱:21下載:5
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  • 隨著科技與製造技術的持續進步,消費者對於產品可靠性與品質的要求日益提高,如何提升產品品質又同時控制成本,成為製造商面臨的重要課題。在產品的生產過程中,製造商可透過各種不同方法以提高產品良率。其中,在產品出貨前,製造商可利用預燒測試(Burn-in test)模擬嚴苛環境條件加速產品老化,藉此篩選早期失效的不良品,進而提升出貨品質與市場信任度,同時降低後續維修與召回成本。
    然而,傳統的預燒分類方法多以單一品質特徵作為判斷依據,未能充分考慮多品質特徵間的退化相關性,導致誤判風險與成本增加。過往研究指出,若能為產品配置合適的退化模型,可更真實地模擬產品的退化行為,獲得更準確的可靠度資訊。若進一步結合最適分類法則,並同時考量先驗機率與誤判成本,則可發展出使總分類成本最小化的預燒策略,兼顧品質與經濟效益。
    因此,本研究提出一套基於二維 Wiener 退化過程的預燒分類方法,利用二維退化模型描述兩個品質特徵的聯合退化行為,以更完整地捕捉特徵間的相關性。再透過線性投影技術,將多維退化資訊轉換為一維指標,簡化後續分類分析,並結合成本敏感判別分析,建立一套兼具數學解析性與實務應用性的分類決策架構。本研究在不同共變異數假設下推導最佳分類閾值與預燒時間,以最小化總期望成本為目標,同時考量誤判成本與測試成本,最終提出最適化決策方案,作為製造商預燒測試與品質決策的重要參考。

    With the continuous advancement of technology and manufacturing techniques, consumers increasingly demand higher product reliability and quality. How to improve quality while controlling costs has become a critical challenge for manufacturers. Among various approaches, burn-in testing accelerates product aging under harsh conditions to screen out early failures, thereby enhancing quality and market trust while reducing recall costs.
    However, traditional burn-in classification methods typically rely on a single quality characteristic, failing to consider the degradation dependencies among multiple attributes, which increases misclassification risks and costs. Prior studies indicate that adopting appropriate degradation models can better simulate actual product behavior and provide more accurate reliability information. Furthermore, integrating optimal classification rules with prior probabilities and misclassification costs can develop strategies that minimize total classification costs, balancing quality and economic efficiency. Therefore, this study proposes a burn-in classification method based on a two-dimensional Wiener degradation process to describe the joint degradation behavior of two quality characteristics, better capturing their interdependencies.
    Using linear projection, multi-dimensional degradation information is transformed into a one-dimensional indicator to simplify subsequent analysis. Combined with cost-sensitive discriminant analysis, this approach establishes a mathematically tractable and practical decision framework. Optimal classification thresholds and burn-in times are derived to minimize total expected costs, providing manufacturers with important guidance for burn-in testing and quality decision-making.

    摘要 i 英文延伸摘要 ii 誌謝 xiii 目錄 xiv 表目錄 xvi 圖目錄 xvii 第一章 緒論 1 1.1 研究背景 1 1.2 研究動機 2 1.3 研究目的 3 1.4 研究架構 4 第二章 文獻探討 5 2.1 預燒程序 5 2.1.1 最佳化預燒試驗發展 5 2.2 衰退試驗 6 2.2.1 Wiener過程之衰退模型 6 2.2.2 Gamma 過程之衰退模型 7 2.2.3 Inverse Gaussian 過程之衰退模型 8 2.3 判別分析 8 2.3.1 分類方法 9 2.3.2 最適分類法 10 2.3.3 混淆矩陣 11 2.4 一維Wiener 衰退過程 12 2.4.1 一維判別分析方法 14 2.4.2 變異數相等下最佳分類點 15 2.4.3 變異數不等下最佳分類點 16 2.5 小結 18 第三章 基於Wiener過程之分類模型 19 3.1 參數符號與研究假設 19 3.2 二維Wiener衰退過程 21 3.2.1 二維判別分析方法 23 3.3 最佳預燒時間t_i 27 第四章 模擬與分析 29 4.1 情境說明 29 4.2 情境模擬 31 4.2.1 最佳投影向量下之最佳分類點 36 4.3 小結 40 第五章 結論與未來展望 41 5.1 研究結論 41 5.2 未來方向 41 參考文獻 43

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