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研究生: 柯以諾
Ko, Yi-No
論文名稱: 災害下運輸路網恢復力最佳化模式建立與分析
A Resilience Optimization Model for Transportation Networks under Disasters
指導教授: 胡大瀛
Hu, Ta-Yin
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 交通管理科學系
Department of Transportation and Communication Management Science
論文出版年: 2014
畢業學年度: 102
語文別: 英文
論文頁數: 81
中文關鍵詞: 恢復力氣候變遷運輸路網
外文關鍵詞: Resilience, Climate change, Transportation network
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  • 交通運輸設施在日常生活中扮演著重要的角色,因其提供各種經濟活動不可或缺之服務。然而其在面臨極端氣候或災害事件時,卻又往往是脆弱的且損失慘重。我們雖然不能阻止每件災害的發生,但有效的防災準備工作能降低災害影響,並使災後工作更有效率地進行。近年來隨著氣候變遷的加劇,天候災害頻傳,社會大眾對於災害下恢復力之議題已愈來愈重視。
    恢復力是指在外力衝擊下,其可調整自我,維持一定程度之運作與服務,並盡可能地回復到原始狀態之能力,其可透過災前整備與災後重建工作之進行以獲得改善。本研究提出一最佳化數學規劃模式,以評估災害下運輸路網之恢復力表現,並使用兩種方法進行災害底下路網恢復力之評估與分析。模式中是以最大化災害下之路網恢復力為目標式,並納入災前災後工作預算、路網容量與旅行時間等條件與限制考量,以及透過災前與災後工作增強恢復力的概念。在數值實驗中,本研究以高雄市三民區路網為實驗對象,設計不同的實驗情境進行探討與分析,並透過交通指派模擬軟體DynaTAIWAN評估路網系統表現。研究結果可供有關當局參考,使交通運輸設施之發展規劃考量恢復力課題,以適應氣候變遷下之極端環境。

    Natural disasters have become a serious problem in recent years because they are often unpredictable and destructive. We cannot stop most disasters, but we can be prepared for them to minimize their impact and recover to normalcy within the shortest possible time after the interruption.
    Transportation infrastructures support a wide range of human activities, but they are vulnerable when facing extreme conditions. Since extreme weather events are becoming more intense and frequent, the issue of enhancing transportation resilience under disasters is bringing more attention to the society in recent years. Resilience refers to the ability of bouncing back to the original functionality level after external shocks, it also indicates system performance under unusual conditions and the amount of outside assistance required to restore the system back to normal conditions. In order to ensure the stability of travel and prevent serious delays due to the unexpected and extreme events, resilience assessment for transportation systems are required to be evaluated as well as the development of resilience improvement strategies.
    Since the discussions on transportation resilience are still limited, and there is no universal agreement on how to quantify the transportation resilience, this paper aims to measure network resilience under disasters. A mathematical model for resilience assessment with the constraints of budget and traversal time, and the determination of the resource allocation of pre- and post-disaster actions is proposed. The concept of improving resilience through preparedness and recovery activities is considered in the model. Two measure methods are developed for resilience assessment. Resilience under disaster scenarios are evaluated by a simulation-assignment model, DynaTAIWAN. Numerical experiments are conducted based on a realistic network of Sanmin district in Kaohsiung City to illustrate the application. Results of the application offer insights into the importance of resilience assessment and resource allocation of system performance improvement strategies under disasters.

    ABSTRACT I 摘要 IV 誌謝 V TABLE OF CONTENTS VI LIST OF TABLE IX LIST OF FIGURE XI CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 Research Motivation and Background 1 1.2 Research Objectives 2 1.3 Research Flow Chart 3 CHAPTER 2 LITERATURE REVIEW 5 2.1 Concepts of Resilience 5 2.1.1 Definitions of Resilience 5 2.1.2 Performance Evolution under External Shocks 8 2.2 Transportation Resilience 10 2.3 Quantitative Measures of Resilience 14 2.4 Summary 18 CHAPTER 3 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 19 3.1 Problem Statement and Research Assumption 19 3.2 Research Framework 20 3.3 Resilience Index 22 3.4 Model Formulation 25 3.4.1 Single Index 26 3.4.2 Multiple Indexes 30 3.5 Program Development 32 3.5.1 Procedure of Single Index Optimization 35 3.5.2 Procedure of Multiple Indexes Optimization 40 3.6 Summary 41 CHAPTER 4 NUMERICAL EXPERIMENTS 42 4.1 Basic Experiment 42 4.1.1 Testing Network and the Basic Experiment Scenario 42 4.1.2 The Results of Basic Experiment 46 4.2 Sensitivity Analysis 48 4.2.1 Scenario – Effect of Weight 48 4.2.2 Scenario – Effect of Budget 50 4.2.3 Scenario – Effect of Max Allowed Travel Time 52 4.3 Summary 53 CHAPTER 5 EMPIRICAL EXPERIMENTS 54 5.1 Sanmin District of Kaohsiung City 54 5.2 Experiment Settings 57 5.3 Scenario 1 60 5.4 Scenario 2 65 5.5 Scenario 3 70 5.6 Summary 73 CHAPTER 6 CONCLUSIONS AND SUGGESTIONS 75 6.1 Conclusions 75 6.2 Suggestions 77 REFERENCES 79

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