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研究生: 鄭淇懋
Cheng, Chi-Mao
論文名稱: 反策略性訴訟對抗公眾參與法對分析師預測準確度之影響
The Impact of Anti-SLAPP Laws on Analysts’ Forecast Accuracy
指導教授: 周庭楷
Chou, Ting-Kai
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 會計學系
Department of Accountancy
論文出版年: 2026
畢業學年度: 114
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 54
中文關鍵詞: 反SLAPP法分析師盈餘預測準確度資訊環境言論自由預測分歧
外文關鍵詞: Anti-SLAPP Laws, Analysts' Earnings Forecast Accuracy, Information Environment, Free Speech, Forecast Dispersion
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  • 本研究探討反SLAPP法對分析師盈餘預測準確度之影響。反SLAPP法透過降低利害關係人揭露公司負面資訊之法律風險,可能改變企業外部資訊環境,進而影響分析師之資訊處理與預測表現。本文以美國各州反SLAPP法之施行作為外生制度衝擊進行實證分析。結果顯示,反SLAPP法施行後,分析師盈餘預測準確度呈下降趨勢。此結果可能反映法案施行後負面資訊增加,使分析師面臨更多需判斷與詮釋之資訊,進而提高資訊處理難度。進一步分析顯示,此負向關聯在分析師跟隨人數較多及產業內公司家數較多之組別中較為明顯。整體而言,本研究顯示,外部資訊環境之改善未必必然提升分析師預測品質,並補充言論自由保護制度與資本市場資訊中介者之相關文獻。

    This study examines the impact of anti-SLAPP laws on analysts' earnings forecast accuracy. By reducing the legal risk faced by stakeholders in disclosing negative information about firms, anti-SLAPP laws may alter firms' external information environment, thereby affecting analysts' information processing and forecasting performance. This study employs the staggered enactment of anti-SLAPP laws across U.S. states as an exogenous institutional shock for empirical analysis. The results show that analysts' earnings forecast accuracy declines following the enactment of anti-SLAPP laws. This finding may reflect an increase in negative information after the laws take effect, which requires analysts to process and interpret more information, thereby raising the difficulty of information processing. Further analysis reveals that this negative association is more pronounced among firms with higher analyst following and in industries with a greater number of firms. Overall, this study suggests that an improvement in the external information environment does not necessarily enhance the quality of analysts' forecasts, and contributes to the literature on free speech protection and capital market information intermediaries.

    摘 要 I 誌 謝 VI 表 目 錄 VIII 第一章 緒論 1 第二章 文獻探討與假說發展 5 第一節 分析師資訊中介功能與預測準確度之影響因素 5 第二節 假說建立 9 第三章 研究設計與變數衡量 12 第一節 資料來源 12 第二節 實證模型與變數衡量 12 第四章 實證研究結果 14 第一節 敘述性統計 14 第二節 相關係數 16 第三節 反SLAPP法對分析師盈餘預測準確度之影響 18 第四節 橫斷面測試 22 第五節 穩健性測試 28 第五章 結論與研究限制 34 附錄一:變數定義 36 附錄二:相關立法資料 38 參考文獻 40

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