本研究應用Budyko架構探討台灣南部集水區水文循環變化，研究區域為曾文水庫、南化水庫、牡丹水庫及甲仙攔河堰集水區。本研究使用臺灣氣候變遷推估資訊與調適知識平台TCCIP計畫的歷史網格資料及氣候變遷統計降尺度資料，得到歷年與未來各情境之溫度及降雨量；歷年逕流量來自水庫與堰之進水量資料；歷年潛勢蒸發散與實際蒸發散則來自GLEAM模式提供之估計值。為了計算各研究區域之水文因子，本研究以Budyko模式為架構，使用歷年降雨、潛勢蒸發散及實際蒸發散資料，建立代表各集水區的Budyko方程式，得到各集水區年降雨量、年逕流量及年蒸發散的水文循環關係。針對未來氣候變遷情境下的水文循環變化，本研究計算未來情境下的乾燥係數（年潛勢蒸發散量除以年雨量），再代入各集水區的Budyko方程式，得到蒸發散指數（年蒸發散量除以年雨量），即可進一步推求氣候變遷情境下的實際蒸發散與逕流量。本研究分析歷史與未來情境下各水文因子（溫度、降雨、逕流、潛勢蒸發散、實際蒸發散）的差異。在氣候變遷的假設情境下，使用本研究方法與歷史觀測平均值比較後，得到以下結果：曾文水庫集水區降雨稍微增加4.6%、蒸發散增加21.8%、逕流稍微增加3.9%；南化水庫集水區降雨稍微增加1.3%、蒸發散增加12.5%、逕流稍微增加4.1%；牡丹水庫集水區降雨減少15.1%、蒸發散稍微增加0.7%、逕流減少26.2%；甲仙攔河堰集水區降雨減少6.7%、蒸發散減少7.7%、逕流稍微增加1.6%。研究結果顯示在未來情境下，曾文及南化集水區降雨增加，牡丹及甲仙集水區降雨減少；曾文、南化及甲仙集水區之蒸發散與逕流增加，而牡丹集水區之蒸發散與逕流減少。

This study used the Budyko framework to explore the hydrological cycle changes in southern Taiwan, and analyzed the changes in hydrological factors under climate change. Based on the Budyko model, this study used the historical rainfall data and potential and actual evapotranspiration estimates to establish the Budyko equation that represents the annual rainfall, runoff and evapotranspiration relationship with respect to each catchment. The study areas are catchments of Zengwen Reservoir, Nanhua Reservoir, Mudan Reservoir, and Jiaxian River Dam in southern Taiwan. The conclusions drawn from this study are listed as follows. Under future climate change scenarios, the hydrological cycle of each catchment is projected to undergo the following changes. Rainfall in Zengwen catchment is projected to increase by around 4.6%, evapotranspiration increased by around 21.8%, and runoff increased by around 3.9%. In Nanhua catchment, rainfall is projected to increase by around 1.3%, evapotranspiration increased by around 12.5%, and runoff increased by around 4.1%. Rainfall in Mudan catchment is projected to decrease by around 15.1%, evapotranspiration increased slightly by around 0.7%, and runoff decreased by around 26.2%. In Jiaxian catchment, rainfall is projected to decrease by around 6.7%, evapotranspiration decreased by around 7.7%, and runoff increased slightly by around 1.6%. The research results showed that in the future scenarios, the rainfall in Zengwen and Nanhua catchments is projected to increase, while the rainfall in Mudan and Jiaxian catchments is projected to decrease. Evapotranspiration and runoff are projected to increase in Zengwen, Nanhua, and Jiaxian catchments, while evapotranspiration and runoff are projected to decrease in Mudan catchment.

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科技部、中央研究院環境變遷研究中心、交通部中央氣象局、臺灣師範大學地球科學系、國家災害防救科技中心（2021）IPCC氣候變遷第六次評估報告之科學重點摘錄與臺灣氣候變遷評析更新報告。