臺灣地區因地形陡峭造成河流湍急，且乾濕季節分明，尤以南部地區最為明顯，使得大部分的水資源未被有效使用，故需興建水庫蓄豐濟枯以提供穩定供水。近年來用水需求逐漸增加，水庫有效庫容卻因泥沙淤積而減少，使得乾旱時期的缺水問題更加嚴重，因此提高現有水庫系統的水資源使用效益，降低缺水損失為水資源管理的重要議題之一。臺灣地區的水庫營運單位常訂定營運規線(rule curve)以表示不同時期水庫蓄水量的豐枯情形，並對應不同的供水係數，然而水庫實際可供水量尚包含入流量，若將其納入供水評估，則可有更大的調配空間。且基於防洪運轉的目的，於豐水期之規線較枯水期為低，然若豐水期流量不如預期，即使水庫蓄水量高於上限，亦不代表水庫有充足的蓄水量可供枯水期之用水需求。此外，營運規線對水庫蓄水量的劃分屬於明確的(crisp)界線，會造成階梯式跳躍變化的供水係數。因此本研究以位於臺灣南部的南化水庫與甲仙攔河堰系統為研究對象，利用計畫需水量制定水庫營運規線，考慮水庫可供水量(water availability)中四種不同入流量處理方式以及蓄水區間模糊化之有無，依此建立八種優選模式，並透過五項缺水指標評估各模式與現況營運之缺水情形，以探討各模式對水庫營運操作之影響。經遺傳演算法求解八種優選模式並分析結果後可知，八種模式皆能大幅改善現況營運之缺水情形，且將入流量納入供水考量後可提升供水效益，而模糊化方案缺水情形皆較無模糊化方案和緩。

The temporal and spatial distribution of rainfall in southern Taiwan is particularly uneven, which usually leads to severe water-deficits problems. Therefore, reservoir operation plays an important role for stable water supply. In Taiwan, reservoir releasing policies depend on the relationship between the storage and the predefined rule curves. The rule curves are lowered in flooding seasons due to flood prevention. Reservoir storage above rule curves during flooding seasons cannot guarantee sufficient water supply for the coming dry seasons. Besides, the rule curves crisply divide the storage into finite zones, which leads to step-wise hedging. To overcome the above problems, this study constructs the demand-based rule curves and uses fuzzy theory to smooth hedging factors. This study employs water availability to trigger hedging. The optimal hedging rules are searched using a multi-criteria optimization in terms of five shortage indices. This study chooses the Nanhua reservoir, located in southern Taiwan, as the case study to demonstrate the proposed approach. The results show that the derived reservoir operation strategies could mitigate the shortage effects more effectively than the current operation during droughts.

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