| 研究生: |
胡瑞城 Hu, Reui-Cheng |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
臺灣股市本益比之財務影響因素及投資策略之研究 A Study on the Driving Factors of the P/E Ratio and Investment Strategy in the Taiwan Equity Market |
| 指導教授: |
顏盟峯
Yen, Meng-Feng |
| 學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
| 系所名稱: |
管理學院 - 財務金融研究所碩士在職專班 Graduate Institute of Finance (on the job class) |
| 論文出版年: | 2017 |
| 畢業學年度: | 105 |
| 語文別: | 中文 |
| 論文頁數: | 35 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | 本益比 、財務因子 、多項式分配遞延模型 、異常報酬 |
| 外文關鍵詞: | P/E ratio, financial factors, PDL, abnormal return |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:156 下載:19 |
| 分享至: |
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本研究旨在探討代表上市櫃公司營運本質的財務因子,是否影響其未來本益比之評價水準。為了增加實務投資的可應用性,運用前一年度財務報表之公開資訊擷取財務因子,對下一年度平均本益比進行多項式分配遞延模型(PDL)迴歸分析。實證結果每股營收與本益比呈正向關係,代表公司單位資本創造收益的能力提升可以提高本益比水準;毛利率與本益比呈正向關係,代表公司產品的利基點或競爭力提升可以提高本益比水準;股東權益報酬率與本益比呈正向關係,代表公司以自有資金創造盈利的能力提升可以提高本益比水準;現金股利發放率與本益比呈負向關係,代表公司可再投資比率提高以創造未來收益,亦可提高本益比水準;然而稅後淨利成長率影響不顯著。本研究亦嘗試應用迴歸分析的結果做為篩選條件,以建構投資組合並分析其結果。
The purpose of this study is to explore the financial factors that represent the operating quality of the listed companies, whether these factors affect the future P/E ratio. In order to increase the investment practice, we apply the public information of the previous year to capture the financial factors, and use them to do the polynomial distribution lag model regression (PDL) analysis for the next annual average P/E ratio. The empirical results show that the revenue per share is positively related to the P/E ratio, on behalf of the ability of an unit capital to generate revenue can improve the P/E ratio. The gross margin is positively related to the P/E ratio, on behalf of the promotion of the product niche and competitiveness can improve the P/E ratio. The ROE is positively related to the P/E ratio, on behalf of enhancing the profits created from the equity capital can improve the P/E ratio. The cash dividend payout ratio is negatively related to the P/E ratio, on behalf of raising the company's reinvestment rate will help future earnings, can improve the P/E ratio. However, the effect of the net profit growth rate on the P/E ratio is not significant. The study also attempted to apply the results of the regression analysis as screening conditions to construct the portfolio and analyze the results.
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