本篇研究以 2012 至 2024 年全球半導體貿易資料為基礎，建構有向加權之國際貿易網絡，並結合網絡分析與衝擊及恢復模擬，系統性探討全球半導體供應鏈的結構特徵，以及其在不同衝擊情境下之脆弱性與韌性表現。
在理論與文獻基礎上，本研究首先梳理韌性與脆弱性之理論演進，接著回顧半導體供應鏈之上、中、下游架構相關文獻，指出半導體產業已非線性價值鏈，而是高度跨國分工之生產網絡，延伸至供應鏈韌性中抵抗、恢復與結構重組之動態框架，並引入網絡效率概念，作為衡量網絡整體連通性之核心指標。方法設計上，本研究參考針對國際油品貿易網絡之衝擊—恢復模擬架構，以及相關戰略資源貿易網絡之攻擊模擬研究，將其應用於半導體貿易網絡，據以建構本研究之分析方法。
在網絡結構分析方面，本研究運用出口市場佔比及市場集中度、度中心性、中介中心性與接近中心性等多項網絡分析指標，分析各國於全球半導體貿易網絡中的地位與影響力，並比較不同年度之結構變化。研究發現，全球半導體貿易網絡呈現高度集中且右偏分布特徵，少數關鍵國家掌握主要貿易流量與網絡控制能力，顯示供應鏈存在明顯核心的結構。
本研究將韌性定義為網絡在遭受外部衝擊時，能夠吸收擾動、維持基本功能，並於衝擊後恢復運作之能力，由抵抗能力與恢復能力共同構成。基於上述定義，在韌性分析及模擬方面，本研究設計排序攻擊與隨機攻擊兩種衝擊情境，並以網絡效率作為衡量指標，透過逐步移除與恢復節點的方式，建構衝擊模擬曲線，進一步評估網絡之抵抗能力與恢復能力。
實證結果顯示，相較於隨機移除，基於中心性指標之排序攻擊對網絡效率造成顯著且快速之衝擊，尤其在移除高中心性國家時，整體網絡功能將出現劇烈下降，顯示全球半導體供應鏈對關鍵節點具有高度依賴性。此外，不同攻擊指標所導致之衝擊幅度存在差異，其中以中介中心性與出口市場佔比為基礎的攻擊策略對網絡破壞最為顯著，反映關鍵中介節點在維持網絡連通性中的重要角色。
本研究的發現不僅補充了全球供應鏈韌性實證研究，也為政策制定者與企業在供應鏈配置與風險管理上提供具體參考依據。

This study is based on global semiconductor trade data from 2012 to 2024. It constructs a directed and weighted international trade network and integrates network analysis with shock--recovery simulation to systematically examine the structural characteristics of the global semiconductor supply chain, as well as its vulnerability and resilience under different disruption scenarios.
In terms of network structure analysis, this study employs multiple analytical indicators, including export share, HHI, degree centrality, betweenness centrality, and out-closeness centrality, to evaluate the position and influence of countries within the global semiconductor trade network. The results indicate that the network exhibits a highly concentrated and right-skewed distribution, where a small number of key countries dominate major trade flows and control network connectivity, revealing a pronounced core structure within the supply chain.

Regarding resilience analysis, this study compares targeted attacks and random attacks using network efficiency as the main indicator. By sequentially removing and restoring nodes, shock--recovery curves are constructed to evaluate network resistance and recoverability. The results show that targeted attacks cause a much sharper decline in network efficiency than random attacks, indicating that the global semiconductor supply chain is highly dependent on critical nodes. Among the attack strategies, those based on betweenness centrality and market share generate the most severe disruption.
Overall, although the network shows a certain capacity for recovery, its increasing structural concentration also makes it more vulnerable to targeted shocks. These findings provide empirical evidence for supply chain resilience research and offer practical implications for supply chain management.

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