儘管過去在國內外都有大量研究指出選舉贏家和輸家在民主滿意度上具有顯著的差異。在民主支持上也有研究指出，選舉贏家和輸家會在部分民主國家中具有顯著的差異。然而在國內，卻鮮少有研究利用多筆跨年份資料分析比較選舉贏家輸家對民主態度的影響。另外，也鮮少有研究檢視政治疏離感對民主態度的影響。本研究認為政治疏離感較高的民眾，會因為覺得普羅大眾難以影響政府決策和對政府機構不信任的關係，從而導致他們有更低的民主滿意度和民主支持。此外，本研究進一步提出選舉贏家輸家與民主態度之間的關係會受到政治疏離感的調節作用而產生異質性的影響。本研究利用「台灣選舉與民主化調查」2008至2024年的總統與立法委員選舉面訪案的資料，透過多層次統計模型和馬可夫鏈蒙地卡羅（MCMC）算法的分析一致發現，選舉贏家和輸家在民主滿意度和民主支持上具有顯著性的差異，亦即選舉輸家的民主滿意度度和民主支持低於選舉贏家，然而隨著政治疏離感的逐漸增強，選舉贏家和輸家的民主滿意度都有所下降，但選舉贏家的民主支持則會比選舉輸家下降得更快。整體而言，本研究的發現將有助於增進我們對於台灣民眾民主態度的瞭解，並且為探索政治疏離感作為自變數和調解變數的相關文獻做出貢獻。

Even though a large body of research has pointed out significant differences in satisfaction with democracy between electoral winners/losers in the past, and some studies have also indicated that there are significant differences in support for democracy between electoral winners/losers in some democratic countries. However, so far in Taiwan, few studies use multiple cross-year data to analyze the impact of electoral winners/losers on democratic attitudes. In the meantime, few studies have examined the influence of political alienation on democratic attitudes. This study argues that citizens with higher levels of political alienation tend to have lower satisfaction with democracy and support for democracy due to their belief that the public has little influence on government decision-making and their distrust of governmental institutions. Furthermore, this study posits that the relationship between electoral winners/losers and democratic attitudes is moderated by political alienation, which results in heterogeneous effects. By using data from the Taiwan’s Election and Democratization Study (TEDS) for presidential and legislative elections between 2008 and 2024, this study applies multilevel statistical models and the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm. The results consistently show significant differences in satisfaction with democracy and support for democracy between electoral winners/losers. Specifically, electoral losers exhibit lower satisfaction with democracy and support for democracy compared to electoral winners. However, as political alienation increased, the satisfaction with democracy of both electoral winners/losers have declined, but the decline in support for democracy is steeper for electoral winners than for electoral losers. Overall, the findings of this study enhance our understanding of Taiwanese citizens’ attitudes of democracy and contribute to the literature by examining political alienation as both an independent variable and a moderator variable.

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