第26屆聯合國氣候變遷大會(The 26th Conference of the Parties, COP26)中呼籲全球以 2030 年作為檢討淨零轉型政策的重要節點，並在2050年達到淨零碳排放(Net Zero)，因應此呼聲，各國開始重新制定與檢討相關減碳政策，我國亦於2022年公布「臺灣2050淨零碳排路徑及策略總說明」，以此減緩全球因應氣候變遷之嚴重衝擊。本研究以電力供給規劃模型(SMAGE-II)模擬臺灣未來於2030年之電力供應情形，並引入多種情境與儲能系統探究未來發電成本的變化，最終提出建議以供政府規劃短程電源開發規劃之參考。
根據研究結果顯示，依目前之發電機組與再生能源發展規劃，至2030年間備用容量率大多高於法定規範(15%)，較無供電不穩之風險。而二氧化碳排放量部分，會逐漸由2020年之126.3(百萬公噸)漸漸降至2030年之104.5(百萬公噸)，表示積極的減碳政策將有助益，單位發電成本也會由2.21(元/度)開始以每年約3%~6%的成長率漸漸上漲至3.57(元/度)。引進儲能系統的情境中，2025年儲能建置量每使用鋰離子電池儲存10%電將造成發電單位成本上升約0.79~0.81(元/度)。比較各種情境結果可發現核能延役情境不僅能協助穩定我國之電力供應，亦能有效降低發電成本，對電價穩定性有不錯成效。
再生能源成為電力供應之主力已成為全球趨勢，因應再生能源占比提高，電力供應穩定性與發電成本上升問題愈發受到關注。建議我國在2030年前盡快建立完善的儲能系統並強化電網之調度韌性；建立電力負載預測平台並持續蒐集各機組資料，將季節性、日夜因素等納入模擬系統中，以期更貼近實際供氣及電源開發受限現況，未來方能真正落實淨零碳排。

The 26th Conference of the Parties (COP26) called on the world to reach the goal of net zero carbon emissions by 2050, with 2030 as an important point to review the net zero transition strategy. In response to this call, many countries have started to reformulate and review their carbon reduction policies. Taiwan has also officially published “Taiwan’s Pathway to Net-Zero Emissions in 2050” in 2022 to mitigate the severe impact of global climate change. In this study, the future power supply planning of Taiwan in 2030 is simulated by using “Simulation Model for Aggregate Generation Expansion Planning (SMAGE-II)”. Various scenarios and energy storage systems are used to investigate the changes in the future cost of power generation, and finally, recommendations are made for the government's short-range power development planning.
The baseline scenario shows that according to the current generation and renewable energy development plan, the reserve margins are mostly higher than the statutory standard(i.e. 15%) until 2030. There is no risk of unstable power supply. The total amount of CO2 emission will gradually decrease from 126.3 (million metric tons) in 2020 to 104.5 (million metric tons) in 2030, indicating that an aggressive carbon reduction policy will be beneficial. The unit cost of electricity generation will also increase from 2.21 (NTD/kWh) to 3.57 (NTD/kWh) at an annual growth rate of 3%~6%. In the scenario with energy storage system, every 10 % of storage capacity using lithium-ion batteries in 2025 will cause the unit cost of electricity generation to rise by about 0.79~0.81 (NTD/kWh).
Analyzing the results of various scenarios, it can be found that the scenario of nuclear deferral can not only help stabilize the power supply in Taiwan, but also effectively reduce the cost of power generation, which has a good effect on the stability of electricity prices.
It has become a global trend for renewable energy to become the mainstay of power supply. As the proportion of renewable energy increases, the stability of power supply and the rising cost of power generation are of increasing concern. It is recommended that Taiwan establish a comprehensive energy storage system and strengthen the resilience of the power grid before 2030. A load forecasting platform should be established and data from various units should be collected continuously, and seasonality and day/night factors should be incorporated into the simulation system, so as to more closely match the actual situation of gas supply and power development constraints, in order to achieve net-zero carbon emissions in the future.

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