在競爭日趨激烈的市場環境中，企業組織經常藉由發展新產品推出市場來奠定其市場地位並強化其競爭力，故新產品在發展期間的管理與控制受到越來越多的關注。新產品專案在發展期間會遭遇到各種類型的風險情況，管理者必須設立一些檢核點並發展評估機制以衡量專案的可行性。本研究擬針對新產品專案在正式進入發展階段前，對專案之「持續或終止決策」(Go / Kill decision) 問題進行架構與分析，並利用貝氏決策分析方法，針對專案是否應繼續推動、重新調整計畫內容或放棄專案選擇其他投資計畫進行決策模式的建構與討論。本研究將透過貝氏決策分析程序，在考量新產品未來市場佔有率水準，以及市場上其他競爭者採取反擊措施對未來收益所產生的衝擊效果此二項不確定事件，進行決策方案的事前與事後分析，並導引出決策準則，再利用假設之實例數據代入模式內進行分析，以驗證模式之可行性。本研究之目的，是為協助決策者在進行某新產品計畫的持續或終止決策分析時，能以一系統性的分析程序支援其最終決策行動，期能減少不適合的新產品專案繼續消耗組織資源，並降低新產品推出市場後無法達到預期目標的可能性。

none

一、中文部份

周文賢，林嘉力，民90，新產品開發與管理，華泰，台北市

Thomas, R. J.著，鄭三俠譯，民84，新產品研發，智勝，台北市

謝龍發，民89，台灣高科技公司依產品開發策略選用專案主導者與專案管理機制之研究，中原學報，第28卷，第四期，13-24頁

二、英文部份

Adler, P. S., Mandelbaum A., Nguyen, V., and Schwerer E. (1995), “From project to process management: an empirically-based framework for analyzing product development time,” Management Science, vol. 41, no. 3, pp. 458-484.

Brown, M. G., and Stevenson, R. A. (1988), “Measuring R&D Productivity,” Research Technology Management, vol. 31, no. 4, pp. 11-15.

Blattberg, R. C., and Hoch, S. J. (1990), “Database Models And Managerial Intuition 50% Model + 50% Manager,” Management Science, vol. 36, no. 8, pp. 887-899.

Cooper, R. G., Edgett, S. J., and Kleinschmidt, E. J. (2002a), “Optimizing The Stage-Gate Process: What Best-Practice Companies Do—I,” Research Technology Management, vol. 45, no. 5, pp. 21-27.

Cooper, R. G., Edgett, S. J., and Kleinschmidt, E. J. (2002b), “Optimizing The Stage-Gate Process: What Best-Practice Companies Do—II,” Research Technology Management, vol. 45, no. 6, pp. 43-49.

Cooper, R. G., Edgett, S. J., and Kleinschmidt, E. J. (2000), “New Problems, New Solutions: Making Portfolio Management More Effective,” Research Technology Management, vol. 43, no. 2, pp. 18-33.

Cooper, R. G., and Kleinschmidt, E. J. (1996), “Winning Business in Product Development: The Critical Success Factors,” Research Technology Management, vol. 39, no. 4, pp. 18-29.

Chang, Z. Y., and Yong, K. C. (1991), “Dimensions and indices for performance evaluation of a product development project,” International Journal of Technology Management, vol. 6, no. 1/2, pp.155-167.

Cooper, R. G. and Edgett, S. J. (2003), “Overcoming The Crunch In Resources For New Product Development,” Research-Technology Management, vol. 46, no. 3, pp. 48-58.

Cohen, M. A., Eliashberg, J., and Ho, T-K (1996), “New Product Development：The Performance and Time-to-Market Tradeoff,” Management Science, vol. 42, no. 2, pp. 173-186.

Crawford, C. M. (1994), New Products Management, 4th ed., Burr Ridge, Ill.: Irwin.

Davis, C. R. (2002), “Calculated Risk：A Framework for Evaluating Product Development,” MIT Sloan Management Review, pp. 71-77.

Driva, H., Pawar, K. S., and Menon, U. (2000), “Measuring product development performance in manufacturing organizations,” International Journal of Production Economics, vol. 63, no. 2, pp. 147-159.

Fox, J., Gann, R., Shur, A., Glahn, L. V., and Zaas, B. (1998), “Process Uncertainty: A New Dimension For New Product Development,” Engineering Management Journal, vol. 10, no. 3, pp. 19-27.

Faulkner, T. W. (1996), “Applying 'options thinking' to R&D valuation,” Research Technology Management, vol. 39, no. 3, pp.50-56.

Hart, S., Hultink E. J., Tzokas N., and Commandeur H. R. (2003), ”Industrial Companies’ Evaluation Criteria in New Product Development Gates,” The Journal of Product Innovation Management, vol. 20, no. 1, pp.22-36.

Henriksen, A. D. and Traynor, A. J. (1999), “A Practical R&D Project-Selection Scoring Tool,” IEEE Transactions On Engineering Management, vol. 46, no. 2, pp.158-170.

Hise, R. T., and Groth, J. C. (1995), “Assessing the Risks New Products Face,” Research Technology Management, vol. 38, no. 4, pp. 37-41.

Howell, J. M., and Shea, C. M. (2001), “Individual differences, environmental scanning, innovation framing, and champion behavior: key predictors of project performance,” The Journal of Product Innovation Management, vol. 18, no. 1, pp. 15-27.

Hauser, J. R. (1998), “Research, Development, and Engineering Metrics,” Management Science, vol. 44, no. 12, pp. 1670-1689.

Hudson, R. G., Chambers J. C. and Johnston, R. G. (1977), “New Product Planning Decisions Under Uncertainty,” Interfaces, vol. 8, no. 1, pp. 82-96.

Infosino, W. J. (1986), “Forecasting New Product Sales From Likelihood Of Purchase Ratings,” Marketing Science, vol. 5, no. 4, pp. 372-384.

Jackson, B. (1983), “Decision Methods for Evaluating R&D Projects,” Research Management, vol. 26, no. 4, pp.16-22.

Kotler, P. (1994), Marketing Management: Analysis, Planning, Implementation and Control, 8th ed., Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey: Prentice-Hall.

Kumar, V., Persaud, A.N.S., and Kumar, U. (1996), “To Terminate or Not an Ongoing R&D Project: A Managerial Dilemma,” IEEE Transactions On Engineering Management, vol. 43, no. 3, pp.273-284.

Keizer, J. A., Halman, J. I. M., and Song, M. (2002), “From experience：applying the risk diagnosing methodology,” The Journal of Product Innovation Management, vol. 19, no. 3, pp. 213-232.

Larson, E. W., and Gobeli, D. H. (1988), “Organizing for Product Development Projects,” Journal of Product Innovation Management, vol. 5, no. 5, pp. 180-190.

Menke, M. M. (1994), “Improving R&D Decisions and Execution,” Research Technology Management, vol. 37, no. 5, pp. 25-32.

Narasimhan, C., and Sen, S. K. (1983), “New Product Models for Test Market Data,” Journal of Marketing, vol. 47, no. 1, pp. 11-24.

Ozer, M. (1999), “A Survey of New Product Evaluation Models,” The Journal of Product Innovation Management, vol. 16, no. 1, pp. 77-94.

Perdue, R. K., McAllister, W.J., King, P. V., and Berkey, B. G. (1999), “Valuation of R and D Projects Using Options Pricing and Decision Analysis Models,” Interfaces, vol. 29, no. 6, pp.57-74.

Pawar, K. S., and Driva, H. (1999), “Performance measurement for product design and development in a manufacturing environment,” International Journal of Production Economics, vol. 60-61, special issue, pp. 61-68.

Rosenau, M. D., Jr., and Moran, J. J. (1993), “Managing the Development of New Products,” Van Nostrand Reinhold, New York.

Raz, T. and Elnathan, D. (1999), “Activity based costing for projects,” International Journal of Project Management, vol. 17, no. 1, pp. 61-67.

Sivathanu Pillai, A., Joshi, A., and Srinivasa Rao K. (2002), “Performance measurement of R&D projects in a multi-project, concurrent engineering environment,” International Journal of Project Management, vol. 20, no. 2, pp. 165-177.

Souder, W. E., Sherman, J. D., and Davies-Cooper, R. (1998), “Environmental Uncertainty, Organizational Integration, and New Product Development Effectiveness: A Test of Contingency Theory,” The Journal of Product Innovation Management, vol. 15, no. 6, pp. 520-533.

Urban, G. L., and Hauser, J. R. (1993), Design And Marketing Of New Products, 2ed ed., Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey: Prentice-Hall.

Urban, G. L., Hauser, J. R., and Roberts, J. H. (1990), “Prelaunch Forecasting Of New Automobiles,” Management Science, vol. 36, no. 4, pp. 401-421.

Urban, G. L. (1968), “A New Product Analysis And Decision Model,” Management Science, vol. 14, no. 8, pp. B490-B517.