| 研究生: |
張祥麟 Chang, Hsiang-lin |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
由台指期貨選擇權未平倉量預測台灣加權股價指數 Forecasting Taiwanese Stock Market Based on the Open Interest on the Futures Option |
| 指導教授: |
李伯岳
Lee, Bo-ywe |
| 學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
| 系所名稱: |
管理學院 - 國際經營管理研究所碩士在職專班 Institute of International Management (IIMBA--Master)(on the job class) |
| 論文出版年: | 2008 |
| 畢業學年度: | 96 |
| 語文別: | 英文 |
| 論文頁數: | 95 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | 衍生性商品市場 、未平倉量 、倍數利潤 、台指期貨選擇權 、價格發現 |
| 外文關鍵詞: | Taiwanese Index Futures Option, Open Interest, Diploid Profit, Derivatives Market, Price Discovery |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:238 下載:2 |
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In recent years, Taiwanese Index Futures Option has drawn most investors’ attention and more and more investors join the Taiwan Index Futures Option market. Taiwan Index Futures option’s characteristics, limited risk and diploid profit, makes a lot of ordinary investors have dreams of being millionaires. However, in Taiwanese derivatives market, to be an ordinary investor is difficult to make money when trading with professional traders or institutes like banks or trust funds. In Sharleen’s book, Volume and open interest: cutting edge trading strategies in the futures markets (1991), he suggested that volume and open interest are important indicators when trading in derivatives market; according to the foreign empirical studies, it also proves that open interests is more referential that other passive indicators.
The first purpose of this research is to detect the changes in option market as trading references to help investors make decisions in Taiwanese stock market and derivatives market. By using one function of derivatives market, price discovery, we can forecast the price trend in the spot market. So, we can increase the probability of profitability. The second purpose of this research is to offer a warning signal for investors when there are extraordinary trading situation happened in option market.
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