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研究生: 張祥麟
Chang, Hsiang-lin
論文名稱: 由台指期貨選擇權未平倉量預測台灣加權股價指數
Forecasting Taiwanese Stock Market Based on the Open Interest on the Futures Option
指導教授: 李伯岳
Lee, Bo-ywe
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 國際經營管理研究所碩士在職專班
Institute of International Management (IIMBA--Master)(on the job class)
論文出版年: 2008
畢業學年度: 96
語文別: 英文
論文頁數: 95
中文關鍵詞: 衍生性商品市場未平倉量倍數利潤台指期貨選擇權價格發現
外文關鍵詞: Taiwanese Index Futures Option, Open Interest, Diploid Profit, Derivatives Market, Price Discovery
相關次數: 點閱:238下載:2
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  • In recent years, Taiwanese Index Futures Option has drawn most investors’ attention and more and more investors join the Taiwan Index Futures Option market. Taiwan Index Futures option’s characteristics, limited risk and diploid profit, makes a lot of ordinary investors have dreams of being millionaires. However, in Taiwanese derivatives market, to be an ordinary investor is difficult to make money when trading with professional traders or institutes like banks or trust funds. In Sharleen’s book, Volume and open interest: cutting edge trading strategies in the futures markets (1991), he suggested that volume and open interest are important indicators when trading in derivatives market; according to the foreign empirical studies, it also proves that open interests is more referential that other passive indicators.
    The first purpose of this research is to detect the changes in option market as trading references to help investors make decisions in Taiwanese stock market and derivatives market. By using one function of derivatives market, price discovery, we can forecast the price trend in the spot market. So, we can increase the probability of profitability. The second purpose of this research is to offer a warning signal for investors when there are extraordinary trading situation happened in option market.

    ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS IV ABSTRACT V TABLE OF CONTENTS VI LIST OF TABLES VIII LIST OF FIGURES IX CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 Research Background 1 1.2 Research Motivation 2 1.3 Research Questions 5 1.4 Research Purpose 6 1.5 Structure of Research 7 CHAPTER TWO LITERATURE REVIEW 10 2.1 Rationale: “Volume and Open Interest” by Kenneth H. Shaleen 10 2.2 Empirical Experiences of Foreign Option Market 12 CHAPTER THREE RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODOLOGY 18 3.1 Introduction: Qualitative Method 18 3.2 Empirical Evidence 21 3.3 Research Focus, Data Resource, and Limitation of Data Analysis 22 3.3.1 Research Focus and Data Source 22 3.3.2 Limitation of Data Analysis 23 3.4 Data Analysis Procedure 24 3.5 Pilot Study 25 CHAPTER FOUR RESEARCH FINDINGS 28 4.1 Introduction 28 4.1.1 Screening 28 4.1.2 Arranging 29 4.1.3 Analysis 29 4.2 Findings 31 4.2.1 The Long Side Market 31 4.2.2 The Short Side Market 42 4.3 Special Event 46 4.4 Simulation 48 CHAPTER FIVE CONCLUSIONS AND TRADING SUGGESTION 53 5.1 Conclusion / Suggestion 53 5.2 Recommendation For Future Research 55 REFERENCES 57 Appendix 1. Stable Short Side Market: Call 60 Appendix 2. Stable Short Side Market: Put 74 Appendix 3. Unstable Short Side Market: Call 90 Appendix 4. Unstable Short Side Market: Put 93

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