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研究生: 呂瑋
Lu, Wei
論文名稱: 應用生態足跡法於模糊永續評估模式之研究
Applying Ecological Footprint Method on the Sustainability Assessment by Fuzzy Evaluation Model
指導教授: 呂執中
Lyu, Jr-Jung
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 工業與資訊管理學系
Department of Industrial and Information Management
論文出版年: 2011
畢業學年度: 99
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 140
中文關鍵詞: 永續發展模糊永續評估法生態足跡
外文關鍵詞: Sustainable Development, Sustainability Assessment by Fuzzy Evaluation, Ecological Footprint
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  • 自工業革命人類的經濟與生活品質快速地發展,但此後人類所製造的污染物質也使得地球日漸不堪負荷,對地球施加壓力的同時也直接威脅到了生存環境;隨著地球資源日漸匱乏與全球氣候劇烈變遷,永續發展強調環境與發展並重一致乃確保兩者之唯一途徑,故其理念日漸獲得重視並成為各國在面對全球環境變遷與問題時的最高指導原則。然而,在全球推動永續發展的過程中,如何建立適當的永續發展評估系統以追蹤、評量國家發展的趨勢與成效,並作為國家決策預警、檢討、導引與改進未來策略的基礎,都是各國積極推動永續發展中的重要方向。
    但隨著永續領域的發展,永續發展的定義也日漸繁多且趨於分歧,其模糊的本質更讓許多永續評估方法備受挑戰;而由模糊理論發展的模糊永續評估法正嘗試解決此一問題且結果亦為永續程度的相對定義,進而評估環境資源的發展趨勢以作為未來政策執行與規劃之參考依據。而生態足跡則具有明確而且易操作的特性,已被國際間廣為引介、評估在落實環境永續行動時的成效,同時也是一種大眾生活中的教育工具,以簡單卻重要的概念讓人們知道日常生活的永續程度。
    研究模型以生態足跡消費之思維為出發點,並以國家環境為主要的實證對象,透過較宏觀的角度衡量各國的人類發展及對等的生態環境衝擊。研究結果顯示在1999至2009年之期間內22個經濟體的整體永續程度都落於0.5至0.6之區間,永續程度均尚未達完善,並顯示在快速發展的經濟體中環境負荷多半出現相對激增的現象,大部份生態與經濟系統之現況正處於失衡的狀態;面對逐年攀升的生態足跡量,各界應轉向使用可再生能源並推廣節能技術與建築,減碳行動的履行與規劃實乃降低生態衝擊之關鍵。該模型的評價結果可供政府確認執行辦法並協助思考政策發展之可能結果,以進一步作爲日後推動及監測永續發展進程實踐與否的系統性的量化工具,而管理者亦能根據評估結果提出相應的政策建議。

    Since the Industrial Revolution, although the quality of life and human economy have developed rapidly, human-made pollutants overburden the Earth, and the pressure we exert on the Earth is also a direct threat to our environment. With the increasing scarcity of the Earth's resources and dramatic changes in global climates, sustainable development emphasizes on paying equal attention to both conservation and development. And it’s the only way to ensure the balance of them, so the idea gradually gains global attention and become the guiding principle in the issue of facing global environmental changes. In the process of promoting the sustainable development to the world, it is important to establish appropriate analysis systems to track and evaluate the trend and effectiveness of national development. Additionally, they can be the bases of early warning, reviewing, guiding and improving in the future strategies of national decision-making.
    With the sustainability field developed, the definition of sustainable development has become numerous and diverse. Its confusing nature makes many sustainability assessment methods be challenging. The Sustainability Assessment by Fuzzy Evaluation method is used to solve this problem and its result is the relative definition of sustainability. Furthermore, it can be used to assess the trend of environmental resources as the reference of future policies and planning. The Ecological Footprint has the characteristics of clearness and easiness to use, so it has been widely introduced to assess the implemental results of environmental sustainability actions between countries. Moreover, it is also a public educational tool, because it uses a simple but considerable concept to let people know their sustainable level of daily life.
    The research model is constructed by the thinking of Ecological Footprint consumption, and experiments on the national environment with a macro perspective to measure human developments and the corresponding ecological environment impact for countries.The research results illustrate that the overall sustainability of 22 economies all fall in the range of 0.5 to 0.6 in the 1999-2009 period. It means that their sustainable levels are not mature yet. Additionally the results also display that the fast-growing economies are most likely to be in the relatively rapid increasing of the environmental loads, and their situation of the ecological and economic systems are in a state of imbalance.In facing of rising amount of the Ecological Footprint year by year, all social circles should shift to use renewable energy and promote energy-saving technologies. And the key point of reducing the ecological impact is to plan and execute carbon emission reduction.The evaluation results of this model can be provided to government to confirm the implementation approaches and to assist in thinking about possible outcomes of the policies. Besides, they can be a systematic and quantitative tool to decide whether doing further promotions and monitoring sustainable development. And managers also can make appropriate policy recommendations based on the assessment results.

    中文摘要 I 英文摘要 II 誌謝 IV 目錄 V 圖目錄 VIII 表目錄 IX 第一章 緒論 1 第一節 研究背景 1 第二節 研究動機 2 第三節 研究目的 3 第四節 研究範圍與限制 4 1.4.1. 研究範圍 4 1.4.2. 研究限制 4 第五節 研究架構與流程 5 1.5.1. 研究架構 6 1.5.2. 研究流程 7 第二章 文獻探討 8 第一節 永續發展之緣起 8 2.1.1. 永續發展興起之背景 8 2.1.2. 永續發展概念之演進 10 2.1.3. 小結 18 第二節 永續發展之內容與意涵 19 2.2.1. 永續發展之本質 19 2.2.2. 永續發展現行之國際定義 20 2.2.3. 永續發展的原則與面向 22 2.2.4. 永續發展的延伸定義 27 2.2.5. 永續發展的五種層面 29 2.2.6. 小結 35 第三節 永續發展的量測工具 36 2.3.1. 永續發展評估之重要性 36 2.3.2. 永續發展指標系統的發展 40 第四節 生態足跡之理論 45 2.4.1. 生態足跡的基本假設 47 2.4.2. 生態足跡之優勢 48 2.4.3. 小結 51 第五節 模糊永續評估法 52 2.5.1. 運用模糊邏輯於永續評估 52 2.5.2. 模糊永續評估法之理論 54 2.5.3. 模糊永續評估法相關研究之整理 56 2.5.4. 小結 61 第六節 本章小結 61 第三章 研究方法 62 第一節 模型概念 62 3.1.1. 模型基礎架構 62 3.1.2. 壓力-現狀-回應(PSR)架構 63 第二節 生態足跡應用內容 65 3.2.1. 生態足跡之定義與內容 65 3.2.2. 生態足跡法之功用 66 3.2.3. 生態足跡之土地分類 69 3.2.4. 生態足跡之運算來由 73 第三節 模糊邏輯之應用內容 77 3.3.1. 模糊化 79 3.3.2. 模糊規則與規則庫 80 3.3.3. 模糊推論引擎與去模糊化 83 第四節 模型系統之建構 84 3.4.1. 系統投入指標之內容 85 3.4.2. 語意變數與模糊函數 89 3.4.3. 小結 93 第五節 本章小結 93 第四章 模型驗證 94 第一節 背景概述與相關運算 94 4.1.1. 研究實證之範圍 94 4.1.2. 資料蒐集與來源 95 4.1.3. 投入指標正規化 96 第二節 研究結果之分析與討論 99 4.2.1. 整體評估結果概觀 99 4.2.2. 各國永續現況之比較 101 4.2.3. 人類系統之分析 104 4.2.4. 生態系統之分析 108 第三節 評價結果之差異比較 112 4.3.1. 與原SAFE模型分析結果之比較 112 4.3.2. 與其他永續方法之比較 114 4.3.2.1. 人類發展指數(HDI). 115 4.3.2.2. 環境永續指數(ESI). 119 第四節 本章小結 122 第五章 結論與建議 123 第一節 研究結論 123 第二節 後續研究建議 129 第三節 研究貢獻 132 參考文獻 134

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