極端氣候的威脅與多種致災條件的影響下，災害風險評估是提出減緩與調適策略的關鍵工具。本研究透過災害風險的理論與整合水患管理的概念指出災害風險的主要架構，強調災害風險評估程序應符合地方化的條件，根據研究範圍的在地環境特性，考量各種影響水患的變數，將其納入模擬程序中，選擇合適的模擬情境與設定在地參數，進行淹水模擬與風險評估。然而，回顧以往針對臺灣地區的災害風險地圖研究，指出過去的評估方法多僅考量氣候降雨因素，其餘影響水患的環境變數多未納入評估或視為外生變數處理。
因此，本研究針對北港溪流域範圍的環境特性，考量氣候、水文、地文三大領域，建立地方化之整合水患風險評估模型。透過颱風案例驗證地文性淹排水模式的解釋能力，並探討不同降雨雨型對淹水潛勢的影響。蒐集各雨量測站的歷史資料進行頻率分析，配合在地設計雨型，計算逐時雨量，並納入潮位資訊以及地層下陷沉陷量等各影響變數，模擬一日暴雨量100年重現期的整合淹水潛勢地圖，且分析地層下陷衝擊影響評估。最後，結合以生命安全考量下的評估因子，透過危害度、脆弱度以及暴露度分析計算各村里的風險值，產出整合水患風險地圖，希冀研究成果得提供該地區防救災策略規劃之參考與建議。

In addition to rainfall, the land subsidence and tide also affect flooding in Taiwan. The study reviews the disaster risk research that the rainfall is the main simulated variable, but the other environmental factors are not included in the simulation system. Some factors are used as exogenous variables, and simulated by overlaying or index calculation. They are not included in the flooding simulation process. However, the World Meteorological Organization proposed that every environmental factor should be included in the flooding simulation process.
Thus, there are three purposes in this study: (1) to establish the integrated flooding risk assessment concept model by reviewing the theory and development of disaster risk assessment and integrated flooding management. (2) to simulate the integrated inundation map through hydrologic frequency analysis, land subsidence analysis and the Physiographic Inundation Model with localized environmental factors, parameters and observed data. (3) to use hazard analysis, vulnerability analysis and exposure analysis to simulate the integrated flooding risk map.
The results show that the verification of the PI model is in line with the disaster reports. Second, in the design hyetograph parameter section, the different type of design hyetograph makes the different results in the flooding simulation. The SSGM design hyetograph of each rain station is more able to reflect the real rainfall situation.
Then, the study not only integrates climate, tide and land subsidence environment factors in the system to simulate first day 100 return period inundation map with local data and parameters, but also analysis the land subsidence impact assessment to point out the flood area affected by land subsidence. Finally, the study calculates the risk value of every village by hazard analysis, vulnerability analysis and exposure analysis. The integrated flooding risk map can provide useful, detailed information for the flooding risk management and local planning.

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