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研究生: 陳雅雯
Chen, Ya-Wen
論文名稱: 整合式都市運輸政策評估架構之建立與實例模擬
An Integrated Urban Transport Policy Evaluation Framework and Empirical Simulation
指導教授: 姜渝生
Chiang, Yu-Sheng
共同指導教授: 魏健宏
Wei, Chien-Hung
學位類別: 博士
Doctor
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 交通管理科學系
Department of Transportation and Communication Management Science
論文出版年: 2010
畢業學年度: 98
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 238
中文關鍵詞: 整合式運輸政策運輸規劃策略性運輸規劃運輸需求運量分配
外文關鍵詞: Integrated transport policy, transportation planning, evaluation, modal split
相關次數: 點閱:135下載:12
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  • 發展優質大眾運輸為解決都市運輸問題最具效力之良方,亦是朝向永續發展的重要策略。都市運輸政策之擬定須經完整之規劃程序,從目標及衡量指標之確立、到政策方案的研擬與評估,均須全盤考量且環環相扣,方能獲致理想且有具體內容的運輸政策而可發揮最大之效果。目前一般所使用的都市運輸規劃程序可大別為以投資為主的傳統運輸規劃程序以及涵蓋內容較廣的策略性規劃程序,二者各有其所長及不足。本研究擷取二者之優點,嘗試構建一整合式都市運輸政策評估架構,以作為連結目標、政策方案以及系統績效三者間之分析評估工具。其中,整合式都市運輸政策涵蓋投資、費率、補貼、管制等四政策構面,透過系統化程序將各構面下之策略予以配套,形成替選方案以進行評估作業;在政策目標方面,則建立都市運輸目標體系權重模式,用以歸納都市運輸之重要衡量指標,並作為其後績效評估之依據。

    再者,政策評估程序中須預測未來運輸需求,由於一般所使用的運具選擇模式有所不足,故本研究亦嘗試於運具選擇模式中納入都市環境變數並分析其可行性。先由因素分析選取步行空間及商圈環境作為重要都市環境屬性,續以敘述性偏好數據建立高雄都會區運具選擇模式,實證結果顯示模式解釋能力良好,都市環境變數顯著,且在大眾運具之選擇上有正向之影響。

    最後,本研究以高雄都會區作為個案,利用實際都市特性與運輸系統資料進行所構建的評估架構之操作評估。模擬結果顯示在單一政策構面中,運輸投資建設所帶來之成效未必一定高過費率策略;於多構面政策模擬中顯示,不論策略效果大小為何,均會產生一加一大於二之加成效果。多構面整合模擬之組合方案均可產生顯著之效果,大眾運輸使用率均可有效提高至30%以上。研究結果顯示,高雄都會區若欲提高大眾運輸使用率存在著相當多的做法,除積極建設軌道系統及強化公車外,同步佐以費率策略及私人機動運具使用管制策略,其加成效果將會更加之明顯。

    The most effective way to deal with urban transport problems is to develop an excellent public transport, and it is also an important way towards sustainability. To reach the idealized effects for transport policies, a comprehensive planning process of including the formulation of objectives and measurable indicators is necessary.
    Urban transport planning process can generally divided into two categories, i.e., traditional four steps transport planning process and strategic transport planning process. The traditional one pays more attention to investment projects evaluation and has the complete network coding to do traffic assignment and more precise calculation. The strategic one emphasizes the combinations of multi-dimensions transport policies and the linkage between urban development and transport. This research extracts the advantages of these two planning processes, with considering objectives, policy combinations and performances, to develop an integrated urban transport policy evaluation framework. Urban transport policies can be classified into four dimensions, namely, Investment, Pricing, Subsidies and Regulations. These four dimensions are systematically integrated in this research to generate the integrated transport policy alternatives for evaluation.
    Besides, an urban transport goal system weighting model is also proposed, with four hierarchies, total goal, goals, objectives, and measurable indicators. The weightings of seven indicators can be used to assess the optimal integrated urban transport policy through evaluation framework.
    Moreover, this research also estimated a mode choice model fully considering urban related environmental variables. Two attributes, walk space quality and commercial environment, are selected by the factor analysis. Then, a multi-logit model is established through SP data to construct the Kaohsiung metropolitan area mode choice model. The results show that urban environmental variables indeed had positive effects on public transportation choice.
    Finally, the Kaohsiung metropolitan is taken as an empirical case study site to illustrate the evaluation framework. The results show that an integrated transport policy with the four dimensions is more effective than the traditional single one. The optimal integrated urban transport policy can raise the public transport market share more than 30%. The contents of the policy are included to construct the LRT system, to improve the level of service of bus system, to increase the parking fee of private cars and motorcycles, to regulate the use of private cars and motorcycles in Kaohsiung. Form the empirical study can show that the proposed policy evaluation framework can be implemented in the commonly used urban transport planning process.

    第一章 緒論 1 1.1 研究背景與動機 1 1.2 研究目的 4 1.3 研究步驟與流程 5 1.4 研究範圍 10 1.5 研究限制 10 第二章 文獻回顧 12 2.1 都市運輸政策 13 2.2 運輸規劃程序 29 2.3 運輸政策績效評估 43 2.4 運輸與土地使用 55 2.5 永續運輸 60 第三章 整合式都市運輸政策評估架構及分析方法 69 3.1 評估架構之建立 69 3.2 目標體系之建立 75 3.3 替選方案之組成 79 3.4 需求預測及運量評估流程 87 第四章 都市運輸政策目標體系與衡量指標 89 4.1 都市運輸目標體系之研擬 89 4.2 都市運輸目標體系之評估分析 98 4.3 綜合分析 103 第五章 高雄都會區實例分析 104 5.1 高雄都會區現況 104 5.2 各政策構面之定義與政策內容 111 5.3 運輸需求模式 123 5.4 整合式政策模擬結果 127 5.5目標達成評估 152 5.6 綜合分析 166 第六章 考量都市環境之旅運行為分析 167 6.1都市環境構面粹取 169 6.2運具偏好調查 174 6.3運量分配模式校估結果分析 178 6.4重要變數敏感度分析 180 6.5 綜合分析 186 第七章 動態尋優回饋初步探討 187 7.1 基因演算法理論與應用回顧 187 7.2 績效評估架構動態微調 196 7.3 基因演算法執行步驟之設計 198 7.4 動態尋優模擬結果 201 7.5 綜合分析 203 第八章 結論與建議 204 8.1 研究貢獻 204 8.2 研究結論 205 8.3 研究建議 207 參考文獻 209 附錄A 參考圖表 A1 附錄B 問卷 B1

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