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研究生: 戴吟羽
Tai, Yin-Yu
論文名稱: 中國上市公司於三大交易所價格發現之研究
The Price Discovery of China Listed Company in Three Different Exchanges
指導教授: 黎明淵
Li, Ming-Yuan
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 財務金融研究所碩士在職專班
Graduate Institute of Finance (on the job class)
論文出版年: 2014
畢業學年度: 102
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 42
中文關鍵詞: 交叉上市價格發現誤差修正模型向量自我迴歸模型
外文關鍵詞: Cross Listing, Price Discovery, Vector Error Correction Model, Vector Autoregression Model
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  • 本研究主要根據Engle和Granger (1987) 提出的誤差修正模型(Vector error correction model)與Sims (1980) 的向量自我迴歸模型(Vector autoregression model,VAR)對於中國六家上市公司於上海、香港與紐約交易所進行價格發現的實證與分析。
    實證結果發現三地的股價存在長期的共整合關係,且根據向量誤差修正模型發現上海交易所與國外交易所股價,除兗州煤業外,其它都顯示出上海交易所較有價格領先效果,而比較香港市場與紐約市場,看到大致上是雙向回饋的情況。
    短期關係中,向量自我迴歸模型亦或是Granger因果關係檢定都顯示出上海與香港交易所較具備資訊領先功能,透過衝擊反應分析亦可看到面對短期資訊擾動,位於亞洲的上海交易所與香港交易所資訊傳遞的速度較快,反應時間較短。

    This paper examines the price discovery of six China listed companies in Shanghai, Hong Kong, and New York stock exchange with Engle and Granger’s (1987) Vector Error Correction Model and Sims’ (1980) Vector Autoregression Model, VAR.
    The research result shows a long-term stable equilibrium among the three exchanges. According to the empirical tests of Vector Error Correction Model, the price discoveries in Shanghai exchange, except for Yanzhou Coal Mining Company, are higher than those in the other exchanges. In respect to the prices in Hong Kong and New York stock exchanges, they make bi-directional contribution to the long-term equilibrium price.
    With regard to short-term relationship, both Vector Autoregression model and Granger causality reveal that Shanghai and Hong Kong exchanges take the lead in price discovery. Impulse response function also shows that when compared with the exchanges in New York, the exchanges in Shanghai and Hong Kong have shorter span of time for information delivery and faster reaction dealing with short-term information disturbance.

    摘要 I Abstract II 誌謝 III 目錄 IV 表目錄 VI 圖目錄 VII 第一章 緒論 1 第一節 研究動機與目的 1 第二節 研究結果 2 第三節 研究流程 3 第二章 文獻探討 5 第一節 交叉上市(Cross Listings)之文獻 5 第二節 價格發現(Price Discovery)之文獻 6 第三節 母國效應與世界中心假說之文獻 7 第四節 中國上市與海外上市股價關連之文獻 8 第三章 研究方法 10 第一節 資料來源與變數定義 10 第二節 研究設計與流程 11 第三節 研究方法介紹 12 壹、單根檢定(Unit root test) 12 貳、共整合檢定(Cointegration test) 13 參、最適落後期數選取 14 肆、向量自我迴歸模型 14 伍、誤差修正模型(Vector error correction model, VECM) 15 陸、Granger因果關係檢定 16 柒、衝擊反應函數(Impulse response function) 16 第四章 實證分析 18 第一節 資料特性分析 18 壹、股價波動圖 18 貳、敘述性統計分析 20 参、相關係數 21 第二節 資料檢定 22 壹、單根檢定 22 貳、共整合檢定 23 第三節 價格發現實證 24 壹、誤差修正模型 24 貳、向量自我迴歸模型 26 參、Granger因果關係檢定 27 肆、衝擊反應函數 28 第五章 結論 38 第一節 結論 38 第二節 未來研究建議 39 參考文獻 40

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