降雨入滲是造成邊坡不穩定的主要因素，降雨入滲的過程導致邊坡土壤含水量與內部應力改變，進而影響邊坡的穩定性。土壤持水曲線用來描述土壤含水量與基質吸力之間的關係與土壤保水特性，此特性在估算未飽和土壤特性中相當重要。因此，土壤持水曲線被視為描述未飽和土壤特性的重要資訊，但現地測量中僅能獲得有限的數據，使得土壤水力參數具有高度的不確定性。另外，土壤持水曲線主要受到土壤孔徑分布所影響，而具有單峰與雙峰特徵。雙峰土壤持水曲線適用於結構性或是具雙孔隙介質的土壤，能描述土體中微孔與大孔結構，了解不同孔隙尺度中的水力行為，並較符合現地土壤特性。本研究旨在探討土壤水力參數不確定性及考量雙峰土壤水力特性，對於降雨條件下未飽和土壤邊坡穩定性之影響。本研究採用貝氏更新針對模型與現地土壤進行後驗分布之更新，並以馬可夫鏈蒙地卡羅法產生隨機樣本，分析其參數不確定性。另外，建置不同信賴區間之水力參數模型，以量化參數不確定性對邊坡穩定性之影響。結果顯示百分位數越大時，土壤中的水力行為受降雨影響程度增加，而導致邊坡穩定性降低。另外，考量雙峰土壤水力特性條件下，結果顯示雙峰模式具有較好的保水能力，雙峰模式中的濕潤帶前緣向下移動速度較快，導致水力行為發生改變。由於保水能力的不同，結果指出雙峰模式的含水量與吸應力變化均高於單峰模式，在邊坡穩定性分析中，雙峰模式的潛在破壞深度高於單峰模式。根據上述結果，考量到土壤水力參數不確定性與雙峰土壤水力特性對未飽和邊坡穩定性之影響可作為未來岩土工程或是邊坡管理的參考依據。

Rainfall infiltration is the primary triggering factor of slope stability. The process of rainfall infiltration leads to changes in the water content and internal stress of the slope soil, thereby affecting slope stability. The soil water retention curve (SWRC) was used to describe the relationship between soil water content, matric suction, and the water retention characteristics of the soil. This characteristic is essential for estimating the properties of unsaturated soils. Thus, SWRC is regarded as important information for depicting the properties of unsaturated soil. However, there is high uncertainty in the SWRC parameters due to the limited amount of field data available. Additionally, the SWRC is primarily affected by the soil pore size distribution (PSD), and has unimodal and bimodal features. The bimodal SWRC is suitable for soils with structural or bimodal porous media. This model can describe the structure of micropores and macropores in the soil and understand the hydraulic behavior at different pore scales. Therefore, this model is more consistent with the properties of the field soil. This study aims to explore the impact of the uncertainty in the SWRC parameters and considering the bimodal soil hydraulic properties on unsaturated slope stability under rainfall conditions. In this study, Bayesian updating was initially used to update the posterior distribution of the model and field soil, after which a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method was used to generate random samples, and the uncertainty of the parameters was analyzed. In addition, SWRC parametric models with different confidence intervals were created, and used to quantify the impact of parameters uncertainty on slope stability. Results indicated that the larger the percentile of soil hydraulic parameters, the more the soil hydraulic behavior was affected by rainfall, leading to a decrease in slope stability. Furthermore, considering the bimodal soil hydraulic properties, the results showed that the bimodal model had a better water retention capacity than the unimodal model. The wetting front of the bimodal model moves down faster. The results showed that the water content and suction stress changes of the bimodal model were higher than those of the unimodal model due to the difference in water retention capacity. Based on the stability of the slope, the results indicated that the potential failure depth of the bimodal model was deeper than that of the unimodal model. According to the above results, the influence of the uncertainty of soil hydraulic parameters and considering the bimodal soil hydraulic properties on the stability of unsaturated slopes can be used as a reference for future geotechnical engineering or slope management.

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