| 研究生: |
王詩緯 Wang, Shih-Wei |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
Enron失敗對能源產業及AA客戶所帶來的衝擊:傳染效果是否存在? The Impact of Enron Failure on Energy Industry and AA Clients:Is there any Contagion Effects ? |
| 指導教授: |
王萬成
Wang, Wann-Cherng |
| 學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
| 系所名稱: |
管理學院 - 會計學系 Department of Accountancy |
| 論文出版年: | 2003 |
| 畢業學年度: | 91 |
| 語文別: | 中文 |
| 論文頁數: | 94 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | 累積平均異常報酬 、看似無關的迴歸模型 、訊息性的傳染效果 、純粹恐慌性的傳染效果 、Arthur Andersen 、安隆失敗 |
| 外文關鍵詞: | cumulative abnormal returns, SUR model, Enron failure, information contagion effects, Arthur Andersen, pure panic contagion effects |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:117 下載:2 |
| 分享至: |
| 查詢本校圖書館目錄 查詢臺灣博碩士論文知識加值系統 勘誤回報 |
傳染效果向來為國內外學者在企業失敗方面(尤以金融業更盛)所探討的重要議題之一,2001年號稱美國史上最大破產案的安隆失敗剛好提供了一個極佳的機會去檢驗資訊移轉是否存在於能源產業內抑是相關負面訊息是否已蔓延到查核事務所Andersen的客戶。
本研究利用2001年不同能源產業範圍內之公司共248天的連續日報酬資料,挑選出Enron失敗期間中16個與Enron呈現直接相關及4個與Andersen呈現直接相關的重要事件,並輔以非AA客戶的比較,以看似無關的迴歸模型於平均或累積異常報酬等方面觀察公眾對能源產業整體體系或是AA查核品質的信心衝擊程度。
本研究發現雖然多件市場未預期的宣告未能對能源產業(SIC= 5172)或是Andersen的客戶於宣告當日都造成顯著負平均異常報酬的結果,但不令人意外地,就長期(累積異常報酬)而言,兩者的確因Enron失敗這三個月以來的信用危機、財務危機及破產危機而蒙受不同顯著水準程度的傳染效果;除此之外,若就與Andersen直接相關事件的累積異常報酬而言,AA與非AA客戶明顯的差異逐步出現於「面臨股東損害求償的負債」的事件中,在交雜著「Andersen總裁承認判斷錯誤」事件的影響下市場上的反應出現了兩極化的方向。最後,由於「純粹恐慌」或「訊息性」的傳染效果長期以來一直是研究爭論的焦點之一,然而於本研究額外的區域或產業檢驗中可以明確地釐清出其實Enron失敗對Andersen的客戶僅造成「訊息性」或「特定區域性」的傳染效果且其可能僅存於能源產業內AA的受查者。
This paper examines the impact of the collapse of Enron Corp. on the performance of the energy industry and Arthur Andersen clients. In addition to investigating the effects of bankruptcy announcements on the equity value of the influenced competitors, it is useful to clarify the essence of discussed contagion effects.
That is to say, a distinction is made between the Enron failure that might have been caused by adverse activities whose revelation is assumed to be uncorrelated across corporations and failures caused by problems common to many firms in the industry. The analysis uses stock prices of several solvent energy groups of different SICs, and limits the AA condition, to measure their average and cumulative abnormal returns on individual announcements and the full event period. Critical events related to the Enron failure are detected for this purpose.
The findings still support the presence of contagion effects exist, even if there is evidence that the capital markets do not react to all events. Generally speaking, if new information came out into days close to those with announcements, it would be useful to look at the surrounding period, and the tests results with the full event-period cumulative abnormal returns are as satisfying as those with five trading days during the most important announcement period, especially at the end of November. In sum, empirical results indicate that energy industry and Andersen clients experienced significant negative cumulative abnormal returns around the event date, furthermore, more clear evidence is found to support a negative reaction to the Enron failure resulting from problems common to other corporations called information contagion effects.
壹、中文部份:
李明昱、王慧蘭、張忠琳,2002年,安隆事件對財會準則及審計之衝擊及與省思,會計研究月刊,第197期:26-30。
李淑惠,民國89年,日本產業之蔓延效應,國立中正大學財務金融研究所未出版之碩士論文。
林柄滄,2002年,安隆(Enron)破產事件引發的會計危機,會計研究月刊,第195期:21-28。
──,2002年,SPE是啥玩意兒,會計研究月刊,第196期:28-32。
陳依蘋,2002年,美國史上最大破產案:安隆(Enron)深度報導,會計研究月刊,第195期:16-20。
黃金澤,2002年,Enron案省思-會計及揭露,會計研究月刊,第196期:33-42。
貳、英文部份:
Aharony, J., and I. Swary. 1983. Contagion Effects of Bank Failures: Evidence from Capital Market. Journal of Business 56 (3): 305-322.
Agrawal, J., and W. A. Kamakura. 1995. The Economic Worth of Celebrity Endosers: An Event Study Analysis. Journal of Marketing 59: 56-62.
Aharony, J., and I. Swary. 1996. Additional Evidence On the Information-Based Contagion Effects of Bank Failures. Journal of Banking& Finance 20: 57-69.
Arndorfer, J. B. 2002. Corporate Scandals Zap Local Economy. Crain's Chicago Business 25 (27): 3.
Ball, R., and P. Brown. 1968. An Empirical Evaluation of Accounting Income Numbers. Journal of Accounting Research 6: 159-178.
Benston, G. J. 1973. Bank Examination. Bulletin of the Institute of Finance (New York University): 89-90.
Binder, J. 1985. Measuring the Effects of Regulation with Stock Price Data. Rand Journal of Economics 16: 167-183.
Binder, J. 1985. On the Use of the Multivariate Regression Model in Event Studies. Journal of Accounting Research 23: 370-383.
Bodily, S. E., and R. F. Bruner. 2002. Enron: 1986-2001. Working Paper, University of Virginia.
Bowen, R., R. Castanias, and L. Daley. 1983. Intra-Industry Effects of the Accident at Three Mile Island. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 18: 87-111.
Bowman, R. G. 1983. Understanding and Conducting Event Studies. Journal of Business Finance & Accounting 10 (4): 561-584.
Brown, S., and J. Warner. 1980. Measuring Security Price Performance. Journal of Financial Economics 8: 205-258.
Brown, S., and J. Warner. 1985. Using Daily Stock Returns: The Case of Event Studies. Journal of Financial Economics 14: 3-31.
Burns, A. F. 1974. Maintaining the Soundness of our Banking System. Federal Reserve Bank of New York Monthly Review (November): 263-267.
Burr, B. B. 2002. Shareholder Activism Hot in Poor Business Climate. Pensions & Investments 30 (14): 4-5.
Callen, J. L., and M. Morel. 2002. The Enron-Andersen Debacle: Do Equity Markets Reaction to Auditor Reputation. Working Paper, University of Toronto.
Chang, R., and M. Giovanni. 2002. Financial Crisis: Fundamentals, Beliefs and Financial Contagion. European Economic Review 46: 801-808.
Chari, V., and R. Jagannathan. 1988. Banking Panics, Information, and Rational Expectation Equilibrium. The Journal of Finance (July): 305-322.
Clark, T. A., and M. I. Weinstein. 1983. The Behavior of the Common Stock of Bankrupt Firms. The Journal of Finance 38 (May): 489-504.
Clark, T. A., and M. Weinstein. 1983. The Behavior of the Common Stock of Bankrupt Firms. Journal of Finance 38: 489-504.
Cornell, B., and A. Shapiro. 1986. The Reaction of Bank Stocks to the International Debt Crises. Journal of Banking and Finance 10: 55-73.
Cornett, M. M., and H. Tehranian. 1990. An Examination of the Impact of the Garn-St. Germain Depository Institutions Act of 1982 on Commercial Banks and Savings and Loans. The Journal of Finance 45: 95-112.
Dettmer, J. 2002. Audit Crisis Casts Pall over Wall Street. Insight on the News 18 (24): 15-18.
Diamond, D. W., and P. H. Dybyig. 1983. Bank Runs, Deposit Insurance, and Liquidity. Journal of Political Economy 91: 401-419.
Dickinson, A., D. Peterson, and W. Christiansen. 1991. An Empirical Investigation into the Failure of FirstRepublic Bank: Is There A Contagion Effect? Financial Review 26: 303-318.
Dyckman, T., D. Philbrick, and J. Stephan. 1984. A Comparison of Event Study Methodologies Using Daily Stock Returns: A Simulation Approach. Journal of Accounting Research 22 (3): 70-85.
Elvin, J. 2002. A Look at What the Powerful Worry about. Insight on the News 18 (28): 34.
Fama, E. F. 1976. Foundations of Finance. New York: Basic Books.
Firth, M. 1976. The Impact of Earnings Announcements on the Share Price Behavior of Similar Type Firms. Economic Journal 86: 296-306.
Fraser, D. R., and J. P. McCormack. 1978. Large Bank Failures and Investor Risk Perceptions: Evidence from the Debt Market. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 13 (September): 527-532.
Gay, G. D. 1991. Bank Failure and Contagion Effects: Evidence from Hong Kong. Journal of Financial Research 14 (2): 153-165.
Gibbons, M. R. 1980. Econometric Models for Testing a Class of Financial Models-An Application of the Nonlinear Multivariate Regression Model. Ph. D. Dissertation, University of Chicago.
Gorton, G. 1985. Bank Suspension and Convertibility. Journal of Monetary Economics (March): 289-304.
Impson, M. 2000. Contagion Effects of Dividend Reduction or Omission Announcements in the Electric Utility Industry. The Financial Review 41: 121-136.
Jayanti, S. V., A. Marie Whyte, and A. Quang Do. 1996. Bank Failures and Contagin Effects: Evidence from Britain and Canda. Journal of Economics and Business 48: 103-116.
Karafiath, I., and J. Glascock. 1989. Intra-Industry Effects of a Regulatory Shift: Capital Market Evidence from Penn Square. The Financial Review 24 (February): 123-134.
Karafiath, I., R. Mynatt, and K. L. Smith. 1991. The Brazilian Default Announcement and the Contagion Effect Hypothesis. Journal of Banking and Finance 15: 699-716.
Kramer, L. A. 2000. Alternative Methods for Robust Analysis in Event Study Applications. Working Paper, University of Simon Fraser.
Lamy, R. E., and G. R. Thompson. 1986. Penn Square, Problem Loans, and Insolvency Risk. Journal of Financial Research 9: 103-111.
Lang, L. H. P., and R. M. Stulz. 1992. Contagion and Competitive Intra-Industry Effects of Bankruptcy Announcements. Journal of Financial Economics 32: 45-60.
Madura, J., A. L. Tucker, and E. Zarruk. 1992. Reaction of Bank Share Prices to the Third-World Debt Reduction Plan. Journal of Banking and Finance 16: 853-868.
Madura, J., and K. Bartunek. 1994. Contagion effects of the Bank of New England’s Failure. Review of Financial Economics 4 (1): 25-37.
Meltzer, A. H. 1967. Major Issues in the Regulation of Financial Institutions. Journal of Political Economy 75 (July/Auguest): 482-501.
Morse, D., and W. Shaw. 1988. Investing in Bankrupt Firms. The Journal of Finance 43 (December): 1193-1206.
Peavy, J. W., III, and G. H. Hempel. 1988. The Penn Square Bank Failure: Effect on Commercial Bank Security Returns-A Note. Journal of Banking and Finance 12: 141-150.
Pettway, R. H. 1976. The Effects of Large Bank Failures upon Investors’ Risk Cognizance in the Commercial Banking Industry. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 11 (September): 465-477.
Poruban, S. 2002. Industry Takes First Post-Enron Steps towards Modifying Risk Techniques. Oil&Gas Journal 100 (27): 22-25.
Rick, W. E. 1984. Discussion of Comparison of Event Study Methodologies Using Daily Stock Returns: A Simulation Approach. Journal of Accounting Research 22 (3): 31-33.
SAS Institute. 1984. SAS/ETS User’s Guide, Version 5 Edition. Cary, N.C.: SAS Institute.
Saunders, A., and M. Smirlock. 1987. Intra and Interindustry Effects of Bank Securities Market Activities: The Case of Discount Brokerage. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 22: 467-482.
Schwarcz, S. L. 2002. Enron, and the Use and Abuse of Special Purpose Entities in Corporate Structures. Working Paper, Duke Law School.
Schweitzer, R. 1989. How Do Stock Returns React to Special Events. Business Review (Jul/Aug): 17-29.
Smith, R. L., and J. R. Booth. 1985. The Risk Structure of Interest Rates and Interdependent Borrowing Costs: The Impact of Major Defaults. Journal of Financial Research 8: 83-94.
Solvin, M. B., and S. V. Jayanti. 1993. Bank Capital Regulation and the Valuation Effects of Latin American Debt Moratoriums. Journal of Banking and Finance 17: 159-174.
Stevenson, S. 2000. Contagion effects and Intra Industry Information Flows: the Example of Olympia&York. Journal of Property Research 17 (2): 133-145.
Stewart, G. 2000. The Spillover Effect. Best's Review, Oldwick 101 (4): 81.
Swary, I. 1986. Stock Market Reaction to Regulatory Action in the Continental Illinois Crises. Journal of Business 59: 451-473.
Theil, H. 1971. Principles of Econometrics. New York: Wiley.
Wall, L., and D. Peterson. 1990. The Effect of Continental Illinois’ Failure on the Financial Performance of Other Banks. Journal of Monetary Economics 26: 77-99.
Weigand, R. A., D. R. Fraser, and B. G. Baradwaj. 1999.
FDICIA and Bank Failure Contagion: Evidence From the two Failures of First City Bancorporation. Journal of Economics and Finance 23 (1): 99-111.
Zellner, A.. 1962. An Efficient Method of Estimating Seemingly Unrelated Regressions and Tests for Aggregation Bias. Journal of the American Statistical Association 57: 348-368.