央行進行決策前，必須考慮決策所帶來的連動效果，市場參與者往往會根據央行決策者的態度和對未來經濟走勢的預期進行反應，若經濟體系劇烈波動，會導致整體社會付出慘痛的代價，是故央行之決策相當重要。各國研究人員為央行提供重要的研究成果，協助中央銀行歸納出好的政策方向，我們認為央行研究能力與決策品質密切相關。由於現今並沒有準確衡量決策品質的標準，我們以1999~2017年22個國家中央銀行之未發表論文作為央行研究能力，並以此代表央行決策品質。又因物價穩定為央行相當關注的重點，故本論文以消費者物價指數年增率做為央行政策表現的衡量，本研究旨在探討央行決策品質對政策表現的影響效果。

在混合最小平方法下，不考慮內外部作者加權前，我們可以得出以未發表論文頁數衡量的央行研究能力，對CPI年增率的影響顯著有益處，當一國中央銀行研究部門研究產出內容越多，這些研究成果能夠有效幫助政府政策表現。而考慮作者加權後，將這些未發表論文中真正由內部作者所貢獻的部分獨立出來分析，央行未發表論文數量及頁數均不影響CPI年增率。整體而言，以未發表論文所代替的央行研究能力，對政策表現無實質上的幫助。

在假設條件更嚴格的固定效果模型下，央行研究能力對消費者物價指數年增率的影響效果一樣為不顯著，可能代表央行的研究能力並非影響央行政策表現的主因，亦可能是以央行研究能力作為央行決策品質的衡量不是那麼恰當。如何更恰當地挑選用來衡量央行決策品質標準之變數，也許是未來可進一步延伸的議題。

In this thesis, we aim to examine whether good decision quality help to improve the central bank's policy performance. As there exists no accurate measure of decision quality, we propose to use the research of central bank as a proxy of decision quality. Also, we use inflation as a measure of policy performance.

Using pooled OLS regression model, we have found a positive relationship between the central bank's policy performance and its research capability, which is measured by the pages of working papers. However, under fixed-effect models, the effect of the central bank's research capability on the policy performance becomes insignificant.

From empirical results, the relationship between central bank's decision quality and its policy performance is uncertainty. Maybe some factors can represent central bank's decision quality more appropriate. How to measure the central bank's decision quality will be an issue that can be extended in the future.

李沃牆、林惠娜、劉雅鳳 (2013)，「公股銀行放款集中度對經營績效及逾放之影響分析」，朝陽科技大學商管評論。

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