這篇文章主要從兩個觀點來探討預告與宣告此種行銷策略對於股價長期表現的影響。第一，從預告與宣告新聞是否提到未來上市時間與價錢來觀察。第二，從新聞分析此新產品是否屬於突破性創新產品策略（對其產業與世界來說是否採用嶄新科技，或開創前所未有的市場定義之）或漸進式產品策略（就公司層面而言是否為其原有科技或原有市場改良定義之）探討。在新產品文獻中，宣告與預告在短期(發布後一星期內)股價多為顯著正向異常報酬。尚無文獻從產品策略角度與不特定產業的情況下，來衡量三年與五年的長期結果。

　　　　對於1998到2004年間在LexisNexis database發布的122筆預告與242筆宣告進行實證。研究發現，就個別長期表現來看皆為負向；比較兩者的長期表現時，預告公司在Fama and French 三因子與四因子模型中，結果較宣告公司顯著為負，但使用BHAR時，呈現部份顯著的情形。此外，當預告中提到時間，價錢，與採用突破性創新產品策略時，其長期股價與未提到者相比，結果呈現顯著為負。最後，宣告樣本結果較不顯著。印證預告才是有效的溝通工具的說法。此結果能與許多探討長期股價相關文獻相印證。這裡以市場過度樂觀與代理理論詮釋之。

We discover the influence of product strategies and preannouncement information on new product preannouncements (NPPAs) and new product announcements (NPAs) in the long-run. First, we test the impact of “time to market” and “price of new product” provided by NPPAs and NPAs. Then, we validate the impact of new product strategies on firms’ long-term abnormal returns. Unlike the product announcement short-term literature, our results are consistent with the pattern of IPOs in the long-run- having negative abnormal returns following NPPAs and NPAs in three-year and five-year period.
　　
　　The predictions are supported by an empirical analysis of 122 NPPAs and 242 NPAs in LexisNexis database from1998 to 2004. The outcomes indicate that NPPAs which with price, time, and radical strategy will have significant negative abnormal returns in most cases. However, under certain situations, NPAs are partially supported. This article uses over-optimism and agency theory to explain these negative abnormal returns.

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