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研究生： 范國恩
Fan, Guo-En
論文名稱： 行動電話服務市場之轉換用戶市場區隔研究－以台北市地區為例
The study of market segmentation of switching users in the mobile phone service market－A case study for Taipei Area
指導教授： 魏健宏
Wei, Jian-Hong
沈清文
Chen, Qing-Wen
學位類別： 碩士
Master
系所名稱： 管理學院 - 電信管理研究所
Institute of Telecommunications Management
論文出版年： 2004
畢業學年度： 92
語文別： 中文
論文頁數： 128
中文關鍵詞： 行動電話 、集群分析 、資料探勘 、市場區隔 、類神經網路
外文關鍵詞： Data Mining, Mobile Phone, Cluster Analysis, Artificial Neural Networks, Market Segmentation
相關次數： 點閱：79  下載：2 
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    • 　　我國自1997年交通部開放行動通訊服務以來，國內電信產業的競爭狀態愈趨於激烈，其中以行動電話業務尤甚。根據電信總局所公佈之數據顯示，2004年3月底為止，我國行動電話之普及率已達104.51%，高居世界排名第一，充份顯示我國行動電話市場幾乎已達飽和的狀態，也表示電信業者不能再以開發新的客源為主要營運目標，必須著重在其用戶數之維持，尤其在買賣雙方之間長期關係的維持方面，唯有從建立此關係而產生的資料，可進一步瞭解用戶特性，並進行市場區隔以因應其不同需求特性。
    　　再者，從世界其他各國已實施號碼可攜性之服務來觀之，可發現此措施會對用戶轉換其原有的行動服務業者有明顯提高之意願。由於此政策將大幅地降低用戶的轉換成本，台灣也將於2005年初實施行動號碼可攜之服務，屆時將會產生更多的轉換用戶於行動電話服務市場中，因此，各業者無不將其行銷策略鎖定在轉換用戶身上。
    　　目前國內行動電話市場中相對缺乏轉換用戶之特性研究，故本研究問卷設計乃針對曾轉換行動電話服務業者之用戶，利用轉換用戶相關心理、行為、資訊來源與人口統計等構面資料，採用統計方法之集群分析與人工智慧之類神經網路作為資料探勘的工具，將轉換用戶做市場區隔。並進一步地分析各區隔群組間之屬性差異，可幫助我們了解到轉換用戶之各群組特性，提供行動服務業者們作為擬定行銷策略之重要參考。

    　　The deregulation of telecommunication industry in 1997 urged the competition especially in the mobile phone service market. The penetration rate of mobile phones in Taiwan was 112% on June in 2003. The highest rate in the world means that the market for mobile phones was saturated. The main goal of operators is to maintain the long term relationship with the customers. The operators intend to further understand subscribers’ characteristics and use market segmentation to satisfy different demands. Moreover, many countries have intiated the phone number portability policy which makes subscribers have apparent volition to switch the original opeator. When Taiwan applies this policy in 2005, there will be more switching users. The operators will try every effort to prevent that from happening and focus their marketing strategies on them.
    　　There is no similar research in Taiwan about how the carrying numbers affect the switching users. This study established a database and conducted cluster analysis with statistical methods and artificial neural networks as our tools of data mining. The results clearly indicate sensible market segmentation and the assessments between clusters were made. All of these information will help us better understand the characteristics of switching users. The operators may take advantages of these findings to enhance the customers’ relationship.

    中文摘要..................................................I 英文摘要.................................................II 第一章 緒 論..............................................1 1.1 研究背景與動機........................................1 1.2 研究目的..............................................3 1.3 研究範圍與限制........................................3 1.4 研究流程..............................................4 第二章 行動電話服務業現況分析與文獻回顧...................6 2.1 國內各行動電話服務公司簡介............................6 2.1.1 中華電信............................................7 2.1.2 台灣大哥大..........................................7 2.1.3 遠傳電信............................................8 2.1.4 和信電訊............................................8 2.1.5 泛亞電信............................................9 2.1.6 東信電訊............................................10 2.2 關係行銷.............................................11 2.3 資料探勘.............................................13 2.4 類神經網路...........................................14 2.4.1 監督式學習網路（Supervised learning network）......15 2.4.2 非監督式學習網路（Unsupervised learning network）..15 2.4.3 聯想式學習網路（Associate learning network）.......15 2.4.4 最適化應用網路（Optimization application network）.15 2.5 市場區隔之定義和重要性...............................17 2.5.1 市場區隔的定義.....................................17 2.5.2 市場區隔模式.......................................17 2.5.3 市場區隔的效益.....................................18 2.5.4 市場區隔的構面.....................................19 2.6 消費價值觀之理論.....................................20 2.6.1 功能性價值..........................................21 2.6.2 社會性價值..........................................21 2.6.3 情感性價值..........................................21 2.6.4 嘗新性價值..........................................21 2.6.5 情境性價值..........................................22 2.7 滿意度之理論.........................................23 2.8 資訊來源之理論.......................................23 第三章 研究方法之建構.....................................25 3.1 分群方法之介紹與選擇比較..............................25 3.1.1 統計集群分析........................................25 3.1.2 模糊集群分析........................................26 3.1.3 分群方法之選擇說明.................................26 3.2 研究架構..............................................27 3.3 各變數之操作性定義、衡量問項.......................................................30 3.3.1 心理構面........................................30 3.3.2 行為構面........................................31 3.3.3 資訊來源構面....................................32 3.4 問卷設計................................................33 3.4.1 問卷設計流程....................................33 3.4.2 問項使用的衡量尺度..............................34 3.5 調查方法................................................37 3.5.1 調查範圍及對象..................................37 3.5.2 資料蒐集方法....................................37 3.5.3 問卷數量........................................37 3.6 資料分析方法............................................38 3.6.1 敘述性統計分析..................................39 3.6.2 信度分析........................................39 3.6.3 效度分析........................................40 3.6.4 因素分析........................................41 3.6.5 集群分析........................................41 3.6.6 區別分析........................................41 3.6.7 變異數分析（analysis of variance, ANOVA）.......42 3.6.8 自我組織映射圖網路分析（Self-Organizing Map, SOM）42 第四章 基本資料分析與討論......................................46 4.1 樣本特性分析............................................46 4.1.1 人口統計構面....................................46 4.1.2 行為構面........................................48 4.1.3 心理構面........................................51 4.1.4 資訊來源構面....................................52 4.2 信度分析................................................54 4.3 效度分析............................................55 第五章 統計方法之分群研究................................56 5.1 因素分析................................................56 5.1.1 滿意度構面之因素分析............................56 5.1.2 消費價值觀之因素分析............................59 5.1.3 行動加值服務之使用偏好..........................62 5.2 各因素之信度分析....................................65 5.3 集群分析..............................................66 5.3.1 集群一：「全方位族群」...........................68 5.3.2 集群二：「生活休閒族群」.........................68 5.3.3 集群三：「務實族群」.............................69 5.3.4 集群四：「隨性族群」.............................69 5.4 區別分析.............................................71 5.5 ANOVA分析..........................................72 5.5.1 資訊來源構面之各群群組分析......................72 5.5.2 人口統計構面之各群群組分析......................73 5.5.3 一般行為構面之分群群組分析......................75 5.6 統計方法小結......................................77 5.6.1 各群組特性......................................77 5.6.2 在資訊來源方面，除了集群一「全方位族群」外，其餘皆受外部資訊來源影響.....................................79 5.6.3 各集群間在人口統計方面，皆不具有顯著差異的存在..795.6.4 在轉換原因方面，唯有集群四「隨性族群」較受網內互打的優惠措施所吸引.......................................79 5.7 統計方法分析結果對業者之建議........................79 5.7.1 對著重功能性價值的轉換用戶，業者應儘量提供核心性質的服務.................................................79 5.7.2 對大多數轉換用戶而言，外部資訊仍是最有效的行銷傳播工具...................................................80 5.7.3 手機搭配門號的促銷方案最受多數轉換用戶的青睞....80 第六章 SOM網路之分群研究...............................81 6.1 SOM之分析設定.......................................81 6.2 SOM網路分群結果....................................83 6.2.1 集群一：「理性學生族群」.........................85 6.2.2 集群二：「感性學生族群」.........................86 6.2.3 集群三：「行動加值服務之重度使用族群」...........87 6.2.4 集群四：「偏好轉換之族群」.......................89 6.3 SOM網路小結........................................90 6.3.1 各群組特性......................................90 6.3.2 關於轉換方面，極穩定的集群一「理性學生族群」與極不穩定的集群四「偏好轉換族群」皆著重功能性和情境性等理性價值......................................................91 6.3.3 不同的分群方法，會產生不盡相同的分群群組之特性..92 6.4 SOM網路分析結果對業者建議.........................92 6.4.1 行動入口網站是改善用戶轉換之重要工具............92 6.4.2 顧客資料庫應保持更新............................92 6.4.3 業者應積極與異業結合，持續地推陳出新各加值服務項目，以提升「加值服務重度使用族群」之ARPU值.............93 6.5 統計分群與SOM分群之群組比較........................93 6.5.1 統計分群「務實族群」與SOM分群「理性族群」的分析比較......................................................94 6.5.2 統計分群「隨性族群」與SOM分群「感性學生族群」的分析比較......................................................97 6.5.3 統計分群「生活休閒族群」與SOM分群「加值服務重度使用族群」的分析比較..........................................100 6.5.4 兩分群結果比較對業者的建議........................102 第七章 結論與建議.......................................104 7.1 研究結論............................................104 7.2 未來研究建議........................................106 參考文獻................................................108 附錄一 正式問卷.........................................115 附錄二 各家業者之行動加值服務彙整表.....................120 附錄三 華德法之集群分析樹狀圖...........................122 附錄四 SOM之其他分群矩陣................................124

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