本篇研究探討的是在世界原油價格上漲趨勢明顯、波動趨於和緩的時期，美國的煉油公司是否應該繼續利用遠期外匯等金融商品從事避險的動作。換句話說，本篇研究以使用衍生性金融商品避險與公司風險曝露值為兩大研究主軸，其中公司風險曝露值中，本研究利用資本資產定價模型中的風險係數當作依變數、公司是否使用衍生性避險工具為自變數，再以不同的石油價格趨勢為區隔，比較不同價格趨勢之下，自變數與依變數之間的關係。

本研究分別自世界原油價格趨勢中選取兩段研究時間點，各為兩千年到兩千零二年與兩千零五年到兩千零七年，兩千年到兩千零二年的世界原油價格波動幅度大，沒有明顯的上漲或是下跌趨勢，市場上投資人並不知道油價會有什麼樣的變動，這個時候若是產油公司使用遠期外匯合約針對油價為標的進行避險，穩定公司內部現金流，有效避免破產成本，如此能降低公司風險曝露值；然而，本研究關切的是在石油價格有明顯上漲趨勢的兩千零五年到兩千零七年間，公司使用遠期外匯避險，鎖住石油交易價格，是否造成公司無法因高漲的石油價格而大量獲利，加上因付出可觀的金融商品權利金，致使投資人對其避險做法感到沒信心，公司風險曝露值出現高度不穩定性。

本研究結果的方向與預期相同，也就是在兩千年到兩千零二年的世界原油價格波動大的情況下，公司使用衍生性金融商品避險，能降低股票報酬的波動性，兩者呈現負向效果；而在兩千零五年到兩千零七年間，石油價格穩定成長下，公司使用衍生性金融商品避險，將使公司風險曝露值增大，增加股票報酬的不穩定性。

This study attempts to answer the question of whether oil producers should hedge by forward selling or not during the period of constant growth and low volatility in gold prices. This study discusses and examines the relationship between the two constructs in the U.S. oil producing industry － forward selling usage and the stock price exposure to change in the price of oil. The negative relationship between derivative use and the stock price exposure to change in the oil price is very obvious. Even more, we wonder whether the trend and volatility of oil price influence the relationship between the two constructs.
The study selects two different time periods to examine the effect that derivative usage influences the exposure to change in the oil price. One window is from 2000 to 2002, and the other one is from 2005 to 2007. In our sample, we pick up 53 U.S. oil producers which are both in the two time windows. On our anticipation, we not only expect that there is general negative relationship in the time windows 2000-2002 which is normal volatile trend of oil price, but also think that there is diminishing negative relationship in the time windows 2005-2007 which is increasing trend of oil price. And this part is never mentioned before in any other literatures.
We want to clarify this new concept in the oil producing industry. And allow the managers to gain insights into the effect of volatility on a company’s return given its particular cost structure which in turn, supports more informed decision making. The directions of the study’s two main structures are correspondent to our expectations and it means that the study explains the situation that when the oil price constantly goes up, investors will not think hedging firms as a suitable target to invest.

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