台灣經濟研究院 (2002)指出台灣百貨流通業已從過去「百貨對百貨」的競爭走向「商圈對商圈」的競爭態勢。台北都會在多年的商業環境變遷之下，已形成了多個大型商圈；其中信義商圈更是吸引了共十一個商場進駐，並持續有新的品牌業者未來計畫在此拓點。

本研究之動機，為探討百貨聚集對於消費者偏好之影響，了解台北都會百貨商圈是否存在規模經濟，以解釋近期百貨業者不斷在幾個主要商圈聚集的現象。故本研究透過問卷調查，蒐集消費者的商圈選擇及百貨偏好，利用兩階段的量化模式，分析影響消費者選擇商圈的因素，及影響百貨偏好的因素，最後透過彈性分析，推論台北都會百貨商圈是否存在規模經濟。

本研究提出的商圈選擇模式，與百貨偏好模式，對於台北都會消費者的偏好均有相當傑出的解釋能力，顯著的變數除了常見的百貨/商圈規模、交通可及性變數，本研究也首度使用了包括：主力品牌數量、同業聚集程度、其他零售業聚集程度作為變數，並發現三者均有顯著解釋力。

由彈性分析，本研究發現「規模經濟」僅在台北都會的部分商圈中出現，其中又有區別：在信義商圈，單靠增加賣場面積，就能大幅提升吸引力；對於其他台北的群聚型商圈而言，規模擴大時還須搭配良好的招商(引進主力品牌)，才能有條件地達到規模經濟；而有些商圈則處在規模不經濟的階段，即使加強招商，仍然無法讓商圈在擴張時，獲得相同比例的客源成長。

本研究提出的商圈選擇模型，亦可用於模擬評估未來台北都會商圈變遷時，商圈之間的競合關係，也可協助規劃者及零售業者，規劃挑選適合發展百貨零售業的區位。

The shopping environment in Taipei metropolitan have transformed throughout decades. Many large clusters of malls have formed. Among which, Xinyi shopping district alone, have agglomerated over 11 shopping centers/malls. And, there would be even more to come in the future.

This study, aims to discuss the agglomeration effect on consumer preference, and to unveil whether economies of scale exists in the shopping clusters of Taipei. This can help explain the tendency of shopping centers agglomerated together these years. In this study, consumers’ shopping preference were collected through survey. Consumers’ shopping preference were separated into two hierarchical stages, shopping district choice and the mall choice. Mathematical models were used to find out the influencing factors of consumer preference. Last but not least, whether economies of scale exist would be inferred from the elasticity analysis.

The two model: the shopping district choice model and the mall choice model, proposed in our study, have decent performance in matching the survey data. Significant factors in the model include some commonly used factors like: the “magnitude of the mall/district”, “accessibility”. In addition, some significant factors are firstly discovered, like “the number of anchor stores”, “degree of agglomeration”, “degree of agglomeration of other retail type”.

Inferred from the elasticity analysis, scale economies are only present in some shopping districts of Taipei. Among which, there are still two sub-types. In Xinyi district, attractiveness increase rapidly when shopping space is increased. For other shopping clusters, scale economies are present only when the number of anchor stores increase along with shopping area. In some other shopping districts, diseconomies of scale are present.

The models proposed in our study, can also be used to simulate future co-opetition among the shopping clusters of Taipei. It can also serve as a tool to assist planners to pick suitable location for commercial development.

Arentze, T., Borgers, A., & Timmermans, H. (1998). Extending spatial DSS with spatial choice models of multipurpose shopping trip behaviour.
Borgers, A., & Timmermans, H. (1987). Choice model specification, substitution and spatial structure effects: A simulation experiment. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 17(1), 29-47.
Boulding, K. E. (1966). Economic Analysis. Vol. I Microeconomics: Harper & Row.
Chang, P.-C., Wu, P.-J., & Fan, C.-Y. (2007). Study on the competitiveness indices of Taiwan's department stores. Journal of the Chinese Institute of Industrial Engineers, 24(5), 414-427.
Evans, J. R., & Berman, B. (1995). Principles of marketing: Prentice Hall.
Fotheringham, A. S. (1985). Spatial competition and agglomeration in urban modelling. Environment and planning A, 17(2), 213-230.
Gruen, V., & Smith, L. (1960). SHOPPING TOWNS USA; THE PLANNING OF SHOPPING CENTERS.
Howe, B. M., Runciman, K., & Secan, J. A. (1998). Tomography of the ionosphere: Four‐dimensional simulations. Radio Science, 33(1), 109-128.
Huff, D. L. (1963). A probabilistic analysis of shopping center trade areas. Land economics, 39(1), 81-90.
Huff, D. L. (1964). Defining and estimating a trading area. The Journal of Marketing, 34-38.
IWASAKI, K. (1996). Spatial Agglomeration Effect of Shopping Destinations and Consumer Spatial Behavior. Studies in Regional Science, 26(1), 125-137.
Kumar, V., & Karande, K. (2000). The effect of retail store environment on retailer performance. Journal of Business Research, 49(2), 167-181.
Li, Y., & Liu, L. (2012). Assessing the impact of retail location on store performance: A comparison of Wal-Mart and Kmart stores in Cincinnati. Applied Geography, 32(2), 591-600.
Litz, R. A., & Rajaguru, G. (2008). Does small store location matter? A test of three classic theories of retail location. Journal of Small Business & Entrepreneurship, 21(4), 477-492.
Mahajan, V., Sharma, S., & Srinivas, D. (1985). An application of portfolio analysis for identifying attractive retail locations. Journal of Retailing, 61(4), 19-34.
Marianov, V., & Eiselt, H. A. (2014). On agglomeration in competitive location models. Annals of Operations Research, 1-25.
Nelson, R. L. (1958). The selection of retail locations: FW Dodge Corporation.
Orpana, T., & Lampinen, J. (2003). Building spatial choice models from aggregate data. Journal of Regional Science, 43(2), 319-348.
Peralta, F. UNDERSTANDING LOCATION PREFERENCES AMONG DUTCH FASHION RETAILERS.
Ripley, B. D. (1976). The second-order analysis of stationary point processes. Journal of applied probability, 13(02), 255-266.
Schrantz, K. P. (2013). Location and Competitive Strategy in Retail: The Case of GameStop in Michigan.
Simona Damian, D., Dias Curto, J., & Castro Pinto, J. (2011). The impact of anchor stores on the performance of shopping centres: the case of Sonae Sierra. International Journal of Retail & Distribution Management, 39(6), 456-475.
Stahl, K. (1982). Differentiated products, consumer search, and locational oligopoly. The Journal of Industrial Economics, 97-113.
Stewart, F. A., & O'Kelly, M. E. (1989). Spatial interaction models: formulations and applications: Kluwer Academic Publishers, Boston.
Turhan, G., Akalın, M., & Zehir, C. (2013). Literature review on selection criteria of store location based on performance measures. Procedia-Social and Behavioral Sciences, 99, 391-402.
Wolinsky, A. (1983). Prices as signals of product quality. The Review of Economic Studies, 50(4), 647-658.
台北市商業處. (2013). 臺北市商圈發展策略 輔導規劃計畫委託研究案研究報告.
台灣經濟研究院. (2002). 21 世紀霸主 爭奪戰開打百貨公司之現況與未來
台灣經濟研究院. (2009). 我國百貨公司暨購物中心業現況.
林嘉容. (2015). 建構都會區便利商店高密度展店策略下的利潤模型-以改制前台南市 7-ELEVEn 為例. 成功大學交通管理科學系學位論文, 1-89.
張新立, & 沈依潔. (2005). 民眾步行行為意向之研究-以台北市民為例. 運輸學刊, 17(3), 233-260.
梁炳琨. (1987). 台北市購物街商業群聚與使用者空間行為：鴻源百貨公司-先施百貨公司段個案. 中國文化大學地理學系所學位論文.
許令亞. (2009). 從零售多樣性探討大型零售不動產內部空間配置. 臺北大學不動產與城鄉環境學系學位論文, 1-114.
陳志嘉. (2005). 不同區位大型購物中心之消費者行為比較研究—以台茂家庭娛樂中心與京華城為例. 臺灣大學地理環境資源學研究所學位論文, 1-128.
陳映如. (2006). 消費者行為與消費空間關係之研究-以台北市商圈為例. 政治大學地政研究所學位論文, 1-168.
陳淑美. (1994). 購物中心設置區位選擇之研究－以台灣地區北部區域為例. 政治大學地政研究所學位論文, 1-141.
陳振順. (2002). 利用多變量分析估計台中地區量販店經營之經濟績效. 中華大學建築與都市計畫學系碩士班學位論文, 1-88.
彭怡君. (2003). 台北市百貨公司的空間結構及其變遷探討--捷運站設立之衝擊. 中華大學建築與都市計畫學系碩士班學位論文, 1-107.
黃幹忠, & 葉光毅. (2007). 台南地區消費者之商圈選擇模式建構. 中華民國建築學會「建築學報」第 60 期, 71-88.
黃薇文. (2014). 探索便利商店於都會區高密度展店策略-以改制前台南市 7-11 超商為例. 成功大學交通管理科學系學位論文, 1-82.
葉佳宜. (2001). 大型購物中心之區位與消費者生活型態對消費行為之影響研究. 國立交通大學管理科學系碩士學位論文, 1-126.
葉建甫. (2000). 一個商業造街的形塑與蛻變-由 [仕紳化] 角度看台中市精明一街. 東海大學建築學系, 1-132.
伍廷蔚(2014). 便利商店選址與商店績效之實證研究. 國立雲林科技大學資訊管理系學位論文, 1-33.
鄭育廷(2015). 購物旅次之迄點選擇模式. 逢甲大學運輸科技與管理學系學位論文, 1-48.
蔣志偉(2015).台北「信義商圈」全球密度最高百貨區. TVBS NEWS. 取自https://news.tvbs.com.tw/life/625138