極端氣候的影響，降雨量及降雨強度屢屢超越以往紀錄，以往透過工程的方法應對極端氣候造成之洪水有所極限，並且工程建設耗費時間長及經費龐大。淹水警報是透過預測未來淹水深度及範圍，提早通知淹水區域民眾預先防範，以達到減災防災之效，發布淹水警報是非工程方法一項有效的手段。
淹水模擬對於都市地區淹水，為一有效之評估方式，惟淹水模擬係屬連續性方程式演算，需先將完整雨量資料輸入後，連續計算後求得，目前氣象尚無法提供長時間之降雨型態預測，並且淹水模擬演算時程亦長，故難以透過淹水模擬，達成即時預測淹水範圍，進而發布警報做為防災之用。
本文採用淹水模式進行模擬，於模式內輸入設計雨型，經淹水模擬求得降雨量與淹水面積相關資料。本研究之淹水模式採用淺水波方程式，同時模擬一維下水道水流和二維地表逕流，進行細緻化的都市淹水模擬。
為能將淹水模擬結果應用於發布淹水警戒，本文嘗試透過大量淹水模擬，以計畫性的雨型設計，進行各種淹水模擬。再將各設計雨型之淹水模擬結果，分析出淹水歷程、退水歷程及其相應之淹水範圍進行數據分析，建立出降雨強度與淹水面積增加減少之關係式。在透過本研究建立之關係式，可由氣象局未來2小時之降雨預測，即時計算出相應之淹水面積，並透過淹水面積對應及淹水範圍圖，獲得淹水區域以進行淹水預警發布。
關鍵字: 淹水預警、即時推估淹水範圍

Due to extreme climate, the amount of rainfall and precipitation intensity have broken the records on a frequent basis. There was a limit to the flood and waterlogging control caused by extreme climate through previous engineering methods, moreover, the project construction takes a long time and costs a lot. In the aim of minimizing and preventing immediate damages caused by floods, flood alarm system is an effective non-engineering method that informs people in flooded areas to take precautions by estimating the water level and extent of a flood in real-time.
Flood simulation is one of the most effective evaluation methods to assess floods in urban areas, whereas the input of complete rainfall data is a necessity to obtain the data after a series of calculations. The weather forecast nowadays does not offer predictions of long-term rainfall patterns, and accordingly, it is difficult to help predict how extensive and damaging a flood might become in real-time through flood simulation. Moreover, flood simulations require time-consuming computations.
This paper applies the flooding model for flood simulation, and collect the relevant data of rainfall and detect flood areas through the simulation of different patterns of rain thereof. The flooding model uses the shallow water wave equation to simulate one-dimensional sewer flow and two-dimensional surface runoff, and then to carry out detailed urban flooding simulation.
Various flooding simulations with programmatic design of rain patterns were carried out in this paper in order to apply the flood simulation results to flood alarm warning in real life. The processes of a flood, its subsidy, and the flooding range in the simulation were analyzed to establish the correlational formula between the precipitation intensity and the increase and decrease of the flooded area. The flooded area can be calculated in time from the weather forecast of rainfall in the next two hours released by the Central Weather Bureau; furthermore, alerts can be released for potentially flooded areas through the forecasting results of the flooded area.
Key words: flood warning, real-time estimation of flood Scope

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