自2008年開放大陸旅客來台旅遊，大陸來台旅客人數佔總來台旅客人數很大的比重，因此兩岸政治經濟關係影響台灣觀光業影響甚遠，2016年蔡英文上台，兩岸政治關係緊張造成陸客來台人數銳減，其影響台灣觀光旅遊業之程度將是本文研究之重點，本研究將加入兩岸政治事件、總體經濟事件及其他相關因素做更深入的探討。
本文主要目的在探討兩岸政治經濟關係對台灣觀光事業股價指數之影響，研究對象為2008年7月至2017年1月台灣觀光事業股價指數，研究方法為最小平方法進行多元迴歸模型，自變數包含總體經濟變數台幣兌人民幣匯率、國際油價、中國消費者信心指數、台灣名目GDP，政治事件加入習近平上台、蔡英文上台、開放陸客來台自由行，其他變數季節因素及2008年金融海嘯。
實證結果顯示，總體經濟變數人民幣對台幣匯率對台灣觀光事業股價呈負向顯著影響，國際油價及台灣GDP對台灣觀光事業股價呈正向顯著之影響，政治事件習近平上台與蔡英文上台與習近平上台對台灣觀光事業股價指數沒有顯著之影響，而開放陸客來台有顯著負向之影響，其他因素季節因素與2008年金融海嘯對台灣觀光事業股價則沒有顯著之影響。

Since the opening of tourism from mainland China to Taiwan in 2008, the number of Chinese visitors has accounted for a large proportion of the total number of visitors to Taiwan, so cross-strait political and economic relations have a significant influence on the Taiwan’s tourism industry. In 2016, after Tsai Ing-wen became president, Chinese tourism declined due to the cooling off of cross-strait relations. This impact on Taiwan's tourism industry is the focus of this study, and we add cross-strait political events, macroeconomic variables and other related factors to do more in-depth discussion of their impact on Taiwan’s tourism industry.
The purpose of this research is to discuss the impact of economic policy across the Taiwan Strait on the Stock Index of Taiwan Tourism. The dependent variable is the Stock Index of Taiwan Tourism, and a multiple regression analysis is conducted that includes OLS methods. The independent variables include the RMB to NTD exchange rate, Oil price, the China Consumer Confidence Index, Taiwan’s GDP, the election of Xi Jinping, the election of Tsai Ing-Wen, Seasonal factors, FIT (free independent travel) policy for Chinese tourists, and the 2008 Financial Crisis.
The empirical results indicate that the RMB to NTD exchange rate is significantly negatively related to Stock Index of Taiwan Tourism, while oil price and Taiwan’s GDP are significantly positively related to the index. However, the election of Xi Jinping, and the election of Tsai Ing-Wen are not shown to be significant. In addition, the FIT policy for Chinese tourists and seasonal factors were found to have significantly negative effects on Stock Index of Taiwan Tourism. Finally, the 2008 Financial Crisis had no significant effect.

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