生命週期評估的應用，可以考量不同階段的範疇、資料品質、生命週期評估數值方法、環境衝擊評估及最佳化方法應用於產品生產之改善參考。本研究目的以生命週期評估與不確定性分析方法，探討火力發電廠個案在溫室效應、酸雨效應及其他環境問題之改善及不確定分析，期能提供電廠生命週期評估在應用方法上的技術改善，以提高生命週期評估與不確定性分析結果的價值。
本研究以生命週期評估結合蒙地卡羅不確定性分析、數值分析及生態效益等方法應用於火力電廠評估與燃料選擇，研究內容包括：第一部份，以生命週期評估Eco-indicator 95方法及一千度(MWh)為功能單位，探討不同發電機組，不同系統範疇之生命週期評估比較；第二部份，以生命週期擾動分析，探討不同發電機組在環境及經濟效益之差異；第三部份，以蒙地卡羅統計方法進行火力電廠不確定性分析，並以蒙地卡羅分析模擬探討火力電廠燃料選擇之最佳方案，分析不同情境之環境效益。
研究結果包括：
1.在資料品質方面，以傳統汽力發電廠可提供較好的資料品質，尤其是能源投入及二氧化碳排放；而複循環發電之操作時程較短，氣渦輪發電與柴油發電規模較小，二者在資料品質之不確定性較大，且排放係數與功能單位之一致性較弱。
2.生命週期評估以Eco-indicator 95方法分析結果，顯示以燃煤汽力在發電階段之溫室效應最高(894 kgCO2-eq.)，其次是氣渦輪發電，再其次為燃油汽力發電；而燃氣複循環發電之溫室效應最小，為492 kgCO2-eq.。在酸雨議題方面，以柴油機發電之酸雨效應最高，其效應值為3.2 kgSO2-eq.，其次燃油複循發電；若以發電總量觀點，燃煤汽力發電仍為溫室效應與酸雨效應之貢獻度最大者。
3.在火力電廠燃料替代方案之情境分析中，主要考量為溫室效應與酸雨效應之環境衝擊，研究結果顯示，以燃氣複循環發電取代燃煤汽力發電方案，明顯優於燃氣複循環發電取代燃油汽力發電。
4.考量環境與經濟影響，燃氣複循環發電取代燃油汽力發電之經濟與環境效益最大，其次是燃氣複循環取代燃煤汽力發電。若以燃煤汽力取代燃油汽力發電，雖成本較低與夏季煙霧獲得改善外，其餘的環境衝擊皆較為惡化。
5.考量發電階段的酸雨效應，以蒙地卡羅分析與最佳化模擬，結果顯示當燃料成本提升約15%時，可獲得最大的酸雨效應減量，其減量效應約為9.4~10.5%，減量的驅動力主要來自燃煤汽力發電配比的減少。
6.在考量不同火力電廠與燃料選擇之方案中，以二氧化碳減量作最佳化模擬，顯示當降低燃煤汽力發電6~7%的發電比例，發電之燃料價格提昇約12.5~12.8%時，則二氧化碳之下降幅度約為2.85~3.89%，若略提升燃油複循環及燃氣汽力發電之比例，則結果更好。
7. 若同時考量酸雨效應與二氧化碳減量目的，以減少燃煤汽力之發電配比（下降幅度為6~7%），燃料價格將提高12.5%~12.8%，減量結果在酸雨效應及二氧化碳上可獲得最大的效果。

Life cycle assessment (LCA) can be applied as a methodology to analyze and to improve the life cycle of products under various boundaries, data qualities, and impact assessment. However, uncertain problems related to data quality, assessment methods and LCA procedures are frequently occurred. The aims of this study are focused on LCA by applying Eco-indicator 95 and using Monte Carlo (MC) simulations to compare the uncertainties of various power plants and to simulate options for fuel selection.
Numerical methods applied in this study include contribution analysis, perturbation analysis, MC uncertainty analysis and optimization. The first part of LCA study was conducted to compare results of various fossil power plants with a functional unit (MWh) and different boundaries. Then, the perturbation analysis was applied to evaluate alternative fuel mixes regarding environmental and economic aspects. The third part was based on the results of LCA and MC simulations to explore better fuel mixes for fossil power plant operations. Significant results include the followings:
1.In general, the traditional steam turbine powers have more stable quality regarding energy intensity and carbon dioxide emission factors. The combined cycle, the gas turbine and diesel generation have higher degrees of uncertainties due to shorter period operations and smaller generation scales.
2.Resulted from Eco-indicator 95 analysis indicate that coal-fired steam turbine power plants has the highest global warming potential (GWP=894 kgCO2-eq.), followed by gas turbine(850 kgCO2-eq.) and oil-fired steam turbine (725 kgCO2-eq.); In terms of acidification, diesel generation has the highest at 3.2 kgSO2-eq. followed by oiled fired combined cycle.
3.Results of fuel selection analysis indicated that by substituting gas-fired combined cycle for coal-fired steam turbine can improve the most in the environment aspect when considering different conditions of LCA boundaries. Regarding economic and environmental aspects, the best selection is the gas-fired combined cycle substituted for oil-fired steam turbine.
4.Regarding the acidification reduction, results of simulations have shown that by increasing 15 % of fuel cost would reduce the acidification effect from 1.39 to 1.24 kg SO2-eq./MWh. The reduction benefit is around 9.4-10.5% more than the reference year.
5.Considering the environmental and economical impacts, results indicated that the ratio of coal-fired steam turbine should be reduced.
6.The MC simulations and optimization model were constructed for carbon dioxide minimization; results suggest that if the fuel price were increased by 12.5-12.8%, and CO2 reduction effect would be around 16-20 kg/MWh, and CO2 reduction would be achieved by 2.85-3.89 %.
7.Results of simulations for both carbon dioxide and acidification improvement indicated that by lowering 6-7% of coal-fired steam turbine, the fuel price would be increased by 12.5-12.8%, which would generate most significant reductions for both carbon dioxide and acidification.

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