消費者行為會因企業資源投入事件價值會因為能量價值變動而受到影響。當產品投入資源處在事件變數下，預測模式根據情境演變進行合理的調整是必須的；老化理論(Aging Theory)的提出，提供對一連續事件的生命行為評估；其理論把任何欲評估之項目視為事件(Event)，而包含在此事件中的能量價值(Energy Value)表示此事件的熱門程度，一旦此能量價值隨著時間衰退且沒有新資源挹注的話，事件的熱門性將會遞減，代表事件的價值也將衰退。本研究擬以專利數量及產品銷售量分別代表此老化理論中的事件能量價值支援事件，輔以老化理論中所提出的兩種情境模式融合消費者行為階段性模式，建構普適性的產品事件評估模型，即時地預測其能量價值，以動態的觀點評估特殊事件內含變數，進而利用化妝品產業市場機制與產品策略評估整體產業之事件週期與潛在價值，並透過研究結果提供產品的發展策略。由於產品生命階段各具有不同特性，研究結合老化理論與系統動力學，提供一個動態且完整的事件週期趨勢分析模式；此外，系統動力學(System Dynamics)建構模型可分析各階段銷售變化重要影響因素，並了解其中因果關係，建立系統性思考架構，利用不同的情境分析，了解對於不同型態事件資源投入重要性，並且幫助決策者了解系統間互動與關聯性，做出良好的決策。

Customer behaviors will change because of the event energy effected by the enterprise resource distribution. The aging theory maps the development of an event into an energy value, which indicates the event’s status and is used to predict its possible life span. A high energy value implies that the event is popular, while a low energy value implies that it is out of favor. This study will use the patent number and sale data to estimate the event energy value. We present two aging schemes, growth only and constant decay (CD), to calculate an event’s accumulative support about customer behaviors. Using dynamic view constructs a suitable structure to estimate the market mechanism and product strategies. In order to the product life stages have different characteristics, our study is designed to propose system dynamics aging model that provides a dynamic and more integrated model to analysis the target trend about the event life cycle. Otherwise, system dynamics model could analysis the key variables which affect the graduations of customer behaviors, finding out the relation between cause and effect and building systemic thinking structure. By using different simulation situations, we could find out the resource distribution’s importance about different event, and help policy-makers to establish suitable decisions.

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