自2008年7月兩岸政策鬆綁，允許大陸旅客來臺觀光，除了改變臺灣觀光產業之型態，更影響近年來產業的發展，已於2011年突破178萬人次，位居來台旅客人數第一名，截至2012年7月更帶來68.5億美元的外匯收入；另一方面，隨著陸客大量的湧入台灣，旅遊品質的下降、遊覽車司機的不足以及一房難求的新聞也就時有耳聞。由此可見，對台灣而言，陸客在觀光市場上，具有舉足輕重的角色。
任何產業的發展規劃都需依照該產業之需求來評估設計，唯有清楚認知觀光需求的現況，才能使市場行銷人員制定更有市場競爭力的價格，同時做為政府單位評估觀光發展的效益以及編列預算的依據。因此，本研究將嘗試以動態擴散模型為基礎，結合經濟因素與政策的變動影響到潛在使用者人數，進而影響市場潛量的假設來建構預測大陸觀光客來台人數的模式，同時，討論臺灣的遊憩承載量，期望能夠提供政府制定政策以及未來產業發展之規劃，此外，做為觀光相關產業制定行銷策略之參考。
研究結果顯示，陸客來台的觀光市場是以口碑的傳播為主要傳播管道且季節波動明顯，市場潛量的影響則以兩岸相對價格為主，政策的干預尚未對整體市場造成顯著變化；接待力評估上，旅館住房、旅行社、導遊及遊覽車等四方面皆為充裕，在未來惟有會受到政策人數限制的影響，以及需積極解決客層過於集中的問題。
臺灣深受觀光客的喜愛，然而受限地狹人稠的地理環境，使得景區快速發展的同時，無法兼顧旅遊品質，因此政府在推行觀光的同時，應對整體環境作一全盤的規劃，使能打造一無縫的永續服務觀光環境。

Since July, 2008, the new tourism’s policy permitted mainland tourists to sightsee in Taiwan. This innovative policy not only changed the Taiwan tourism industry type, but also throve the whole industry development. In 2011, the mainland tourists were over 178 million and brought 6.85 billion US dollars till July, 2012. However, some travel quality declined problems were discussed on this issue, and, it can be seen that mainland tourists play an important role in tourism market in Taiwan.
The development and planning of all industry depend on their demand. Therefore, this study is based on dynamic diffusion model, and combines economic factors with policy variables to forecast the number of mainland tourists. Moreover, we consider the issue about recreational carrying capacity in Taiwan to provide suggestions for the government and tourism-related industry.
The results show the market of mainland tourists is fluctuated by word-of-mouth information diffusion and has obvious seasonal fluctuation. The market potential is affected with the relative price and does not cause a significant variation by policy variables. Besides, in the carrying capacity part, all capacities of the four aspects are abundance for hotel, travel agency, tour guide, and tourist coach. In the future, the development of tourism market will be restricted by the limitation of tourist number policy and the government will need to positively solve the question of same tourist group.

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