在具有高度不確定性與複雜性的海洋環境中，以極限強度與系統可靠度為基準的分析方法是評估結構安全性較佳的方法之一。一般船體結構通常使用板架做為船殼主體，故本研究以典型的板架結構系統為主要的分析模型來進行系統可靠度分析。
本研究擬用一階二次矩可靠度方法進行船體結構系統可靠度分析。本研究將首先考慮一箱型板架結構中板加強材以及加強板架之並聯組合系統分析，最後以一散裝貨輪之縱向結構進行可靠度分析，以期求得船體結構的整體失效機率。

One of the best ways to evaluate the safety of structures in highly uncertain and complicated ocean environment is to use the ultimate strength analysis and the system reliability analysis. Generally, the ship hulls are made of stiffened plates. In this study, two typical box girders with various stiffeners are employed as ship-type models for system reliability analysis.

In this research the first order second-moment reliability method is applied to evaluate the system reliability of ship structures. First, a ship-type box girder is selected as examples to evaluate the system reliability. Parallel system of plates and stiffeners with associated plates are considered. Finally, the failure probability on the midship section of bulk carrier is evaluated by using the system reliability method. It is believed that the global probability of failure of a ship can be obtained by utilizing the above system reliability analysis method.

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