本研究旨在探討全球低軌衛星網路（Low Earth Orbit, LEO）於未來非地面網路（Non-Terrestrial Networks, NTN）與第六代行動通訊（6G）架構中的發展可行性，聚焦於技術成熟度、發展趨勢與財務可行性之綜合分析。隨著通訊技術邁向地空整合，非地面網路已被3GPP納入5G-Advanced及6G標準核心架構，成為實現全球網路無縫連接的重要途徑。
本研究首先分析文獻，整理3GPP技術規範、國際主要低軌衛星業者（Starlink、OneWeb、Amazon Kuiper）之發展資料，評估低軌衛星在技術可行性上的發展現況與瓶頸。接著透過動態軌道演算程式分析Starlink在軌衛星之空間分佈，評估其產能利用率；隨後採用情境分析法與羅吉斯成長模型（Logistic Curve），以Starlink歷史數據為基礎，推估不同情境下的潛在用戶數需求規模。最後運用成本效益分析法（CBA）中的淨現值法（NPV），綜合評估在不同經濟環境下的財務可行性與長期營運穩定性。
研究結果顯示，低軌衛星雖在技術上已成功發射上萬顆衛星，基礎通訊上具備高度可行性，但在經濟層面上，其龐大的初期資本支出與高達 80% 的產能閒置率，導致其在純一般大眾 (B2C) 市場中極難達成財務損益平衡，產業之長期經濟收益來源不能單純仰賴住宅用戶規模，而是需要在技術進步打破自然獨占後，積極拓展航空、海事與國防等高利潤的企業 (B2B) 與政府 (B2G) 市場，將飛越海洋與極地的閒置產能有效變現，方能實現長期的獲利與營運穩定。

This study evaluates the global development feasibility of Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite networks within the evolving Non-Terrestrial Network (NTN) and sixth-generation (6G) communication frameworks. As 3GPP standards increasingly integrate space-based infrastructures into the core 5G-Advanced and 6G architectures, LEO satellites represent a vital technological frontier for achieving universal digital inclusion and network resilience.
The research adopts a structured multi-methodological approach. It begins with a document analysis of major international operators to identify current technical hurdles and industry bottlenecks. Subsequently, scenario analysis and Logistic growth models are utilized to forecast global market penetration and potential subscriber demand trajectories. Finally, a Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) using the Net Present Value (NPV) method provides a rigorous financial assessment of the industry’s long-term sustainability.
The investigation focuses on the strategic balance between technological advancement and economic reality. Specifically, it addresses the challenges posed by high fixed capital expenditures and the inherent geographic constraints of orbital capacity allocation. The study aims to identify the critical conditions and market strategies, particularly the potential transition from mass-market residential services toward high-value vertical sectors—required to ensure the financial and operational stability of LEO constellations in a competitive global landscape.

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