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研究生: 余美萱
Yu, Mei-Hsuan
論文名稱: 應用機器學習於巨量建築特徵資料之冷熱負荷預測分析
Machine Learning-Based Prediction and Analysis of Cooling and Heating Loads Using Large-Scale Building Feature Data
指導教授: 林軒丞
Lin, Hsuan-Cheng
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 規劃與設計學院 - 建築學系
Department of Architecture
論文出版年: 2025
畢業學年度: 113
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 87
中文關鍵詞: 冷負荷(CL)熱負荷(HL)機器學習監督式技術特徵工程
外文關鍵詞: Cooling Load (CL), Heating Load (HL), Machine Learning, Supervised Techniques, Feature Engineering
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  • 本研究旨在利用建築分析軟體模擬並分析 12 種不同類型的建築物,探討影響能源負荷需求的關鍵因素,並建立精確的預測模型。透過建築特徵與形狀組合,生成 768 種建築形狀,分別分析冷負荷(Cooling Load, CL)與熱負荷(Heating Load, HL),兩者分別代表維持濕熱環境穩定與室內溫度舒適所需的能源需求核心。我們收集多項建築特徵,包括玻璃面積、屋頂面積、地板面積、牆體材料、建築高度與長寬比等。這些參數在不同建築中差異顯著,並深刻影響能源需求,例如玻璃面積影響熱傳導與日照吸收,屋頂面積與材料決定保溫與散熱性能。為系統化分析其對冷、熱負荷的貢獻,本文採用特徵工程方法,進行數據清理、篩選與標準化,提取與能源負荷高度相關的關鍵特徵。
    在方法層面,研究進一步應用監督式機器學習技術,採用多種迴歸模型建模與預測,包括線性迴歸(Linear Regression)、隨機森林迴歸(Random Forest Regression)、支援向量迴歸(SVR)與梯度提升機(GBM),以捕捉建築特徵與負荷需求的線性與非線性關係。為提升準確性與穩定性,進一步採用堆疊式策略(Stacking Strategy)整合多模型預測結果,並以交叉驗證檢驗泛化能力。模型評估使用均方誤差(MSE)、平均絕對誤差(MAE)與決定係數(R²)等指標,全面衡量預測精度與穩健性。結果顯示,本方法可有效預測能源負荷,並為建築設計與能源管理提供可靠依據。
    在應用層面,研究成果可協助設計師於建築初期選擇合適的材料、結構與形狀,優化冷、熱負荷配置,降低能源浪費與運行成本。同時,本方法補足傳統建築設計在經濟性、材料選擇與節能策略上的不足,並可推廣至智慧建築、能源調度及低碳城市規劃,促進環境友善與永續發展的建築實踐。

    This study simulates and analyzes twelve building types with 768 shape variations to identify the critical factors affecting cooling load (CL) and heating load (HL). Building parameters such as glazing area, roof and floor area, wall material, height, and aspect ratio were collected, as they strongly influence building energy performance. For instance, glazing significantly affects heat transfer and solar gain, while roof characteristics determine insulation and heat dissipation.Feature engineering techniques—including data cleaning, selection, and standardization—were applied to extract the most relevant predictors. Supervised machine learning methods (Linear Regression, Random Forest, Support Vector Regression, Gradient Boosting Machines) were adopted to capture both linear and nonlinear effects. A stacking strategy and cross-validation further enhanced accuracy and generalization. Model performance, measured by MSE, MAE, and R², confirms that the proposed framework can achieve accurate and robust predictions of building energy loads.The findings provide practical guidance for early-stage building design by optimizing material selection, structural forms, and geometries to reduce energy waste and costs. The framework also supports smart building development, energy scheduling, and sustainable urban planning, contributing to low-carbon and environmentally responsible architecture.

    摘要i 誌謝viii 目錄ix 表目錄xii 圖目錄xiii 第一章、緒論1 1.1. 研究背景1 1.1.1 城市級別的建築能效評估2 1.1.2 實際案例:歐洲被動式建築(Passive House)2 1.2. 研究動機3 1.3 研究目的5 1.3.1 探勘建築特徵對冷負荷與熱負荷的影響機制5 1.3.2 構建多模型集成的冷熱負荷預測框架5 1.3.3 評估冷熱負荷預測對建築能源效率的應用價值6 第二章、文獻探討7 2.1 冷負荷和熱負荷預測方法7 2.2 特徵工程和特徵選擇7 2.3 集成式模型和堆疊策略8 2.4 建築能源管理中的應用8 第三章、研究方法9 3.1 研究架構9 3.1.1 數據集分析與說明9 3.1.2 特徵值挑選方法9 3.1.3 監督式技術應用10 3.1.4 集成式技術整合10 3.1.5 堆疊式與投票法策略10 3.1.6 模型評估與比較10 3.1.7 研究價值與挑戰10 3.2 數據集分析與說明13 3.3 資料探索性分析 (Exploratory Data Analysis, EDA)18 3.4 特徵值挑選方法21 3.4.1. 相關係數計算22 3.4.2. 相依矩陣分析23 3.5 監督式技術25 3.5.1 SVR 支援向量(Support Vector Regression,SVR)迴歸25 3.5.2 KNN 鄰近法(K-Nearest Neighbors,KNN)26 3.5.3 隨機森林(Random Forest,RF)26 3.5.4 MLP 多層感知器(Multilayer Perceptron,MLP)27 3.5.5 GBoost 梯度提升(Gradient Boosting,GBoost)28 3.5.6 XGBoost 梯度提升決策樹(eXtreme Gradient Boosting,XGBoost)28 3.6 堆疊式策略30 3.7 投票法策略31 3.8 機器學習演算法之比較32 3.8.1SVR(支援向量回歸)和 KNN(K 近鄰法)32 3.8.2 隨機森林(Random Forest)和 XGBoost32 3.8.3 多層感知器(MLP)33 3.8.4 梯度提升(GBoost)33 3.8.5 堆疊策略(Stacking)和投票法(Voting)33 3.9 模型評估指標34 3.9.1 平均平方差(Mean Square Error)34 3.9.2 方均根差(Root Mean Square Error) 34 3.9.3 平均絕對誤差(Mean Absolute Error)35 3.9.4 決定係數36 3.10 模型評估指標的重要性與應用37 第四章、實驗結果39 4.1 相依矩陣分析39 4.2 特徵值重要性分析41 4.2.1 冷負荷的特徵值重要性41 4.2.2 熱負荷的特徵值重要性42 4.2.3 結果分析與比較43 4.3 建築冷熱負荷關鍵特徵44 4.4 監督式技術實驗結果47 4.5 集成式技術實驗結果49 4.6 堆疊式策略實驗結果51 4.7 投票法策略實驗結果52 4.8 各模型於熱負荷和冷負荷視覺化分析54 4.9 實驗結果說明62 第五章、結論64 5.1.建築特徵與能源效益的關聯性分析65 5.1.1 降低外表面積的熱交換影響66 5.1.2 提升自然通風與遮陽設計66 5.1.3 材料選擇與絕緣層設計67 5.1.4 應用能源負荷預測模型進行設計優化67 5.2 人工智慧方法導入建築資訊67 5.3 機器學習應用於建築設計68 第六章、參考文獻70

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