都市化是一個涉及土地利用和人口變化的多維度複雜過程。隨著都市化的持續擴張，伴隨的是自然環境的快速消耗轉換以滿足日益增長人口的基本需求。這種增長主要受到城市人口、資源與經濟活動的推動，進而促進產業與經濟轉型創新和社會互動以增加城市的可居住性。然而，都市化也帶來了諸多負面影響，例如土地利用的不經濟、都市蔓延（urban sprawl）及高人口密度等問題。這些轉變經常破壞人為建成環境與自然環境的生態系統，而導致自然災害風險尤其是都市洪患風險的加劇。儘管過去已有許多關於洪患風險的防減災研究，但對於城市發展與洪患風險之間的關聯性仍然理解有限。都市化與洪患風險之間的複雜因素尚未被充分探討，特別是在都市化動態的影響方面。
本研究旨在理解城市發展與洪患風險之間的關係，重點關注都市化如何影響快速成長城市的洪患易發性。研究分析都市洪患風險的關鍵特徵以及都市化的動態變化，強調風險元素、地理位置特性與洪患事件在塑造都市洪患風險中的作用。本研究提出了一個整合定量方法與地理資訊系統（GIS）空間分析技術的綜合框架，包括雙變量空間自相關（bivariate spatial autocorrelation）及 K-means 分群技術，以評估空間分佈模式及洪患風險強度特徵。研究方法包含四個步驟：(1) 確定都市洪患風險因素以量化洪患風險要素；(2) 使用二維洪患模擬模型（2D flood simulation model）來模擬都市化所導致地文變化的洪患災害圖；(3) 定義洪患風險並建立洪患風險地圖操做模型；(4) 應用雙變量局部空間自相關（BiLISA）來探討都市化與洪患風險之間的空間關聯性，以分析空間及時間的紅患風險趨勢變遷；並透過 K-means 分群技術界定洪患風險特徵，以釐清都市化與都市洪患風險之間的空間動態關係。本框架中的「風險要素對立因子法」（Opposite Factors of the Risk Elements Method）有助於改善風險規劃及決策制定。透過三種整合方法分析都市洪患風險，可針對特定洪患動態量身訂製應對策略，以增強城市韌性。
本研究以泰國呵叻府（Nakhon Ratchasima）為案例，利用都市洪患風險映射數據來評估都市化的影響。該框架可為未來可持續城市規劃與發展的決策過程提供資訊，且不需要大規模數據集，使其能適應當數據稀缺時的洪患分析需求。本研究的貢獻在於釐清都市化與都市洪患風險之間的複雜關係。通過探討這些關聯性而發展出一個全面的量化分析框架，以深入理解都市化如何影響呵叻府的都市洪患風險。
該框架提供了對都市洪患風險動態的深入見解，特別強調快速都市化如何擾亂自然水流並擴大高風險區域。儘管某些案例中災害嚴重程度有所下降，但由於高風險區域的擴大，洪患風險仍在增加，尤其是在人口密集及低窪地區。城市擴張往往延伸至高風險區域，原因包括土地使用限制、規劃缺陷及監管約束，這些因素降低了城市的適應力並增加其脆弱性。
在呵叻府，計劃內與計劃外的發展皆對都市化進程產生了重大影響。政府於 2011 年推出第二次城市綜合土地使用法規，以促進經濟發展，最初確實推動了城市擴張，使指定發展區域增加 500%。然而，由於缺乏綜合性土地規劃及法規執行，導致城市擴展失控。這種擴張超出了城市邊界，特別是在北部的洪患易發區。這一趨勢主要受到南部的國有土地影響，其中包括軍事區域與農業改革區，這些地區因法律限制無法開發，迫使城市發展向更具風險及高暴露度的區域擴展。儘管該框架具備優勢，但仍受限於數據可得性、尺度及模型簡化，可能影響評估準確性，並可能忽略關鍵風險趨勢。
未來研究應聚焦於三個策略領域，以應對這些挑戰。首先，提高數據能力至關重要，應利用先進技術來提升數據收集的準確性、效率及即時監測能力。其次，透過縱向研究分析時間動態變化，能夠深入了解洪患風險如何隨著城市發展、土地利用變化及環境條件而演變。最後，擴展風險評估方法，例如引入多準則分析（multi-criteria analysis），可對不同風險因子進行更全面的評估，確保基於數據的風險管理。此外，推動以社區為中心的韌性發展至關重要，強調公眾積極參與洪患風險規劃與準備工作。整合氣候適應策略將進一步增強該框架應對未來氣候風險的能力。同時，制定政策導向解決方案並鼓勵跨學科合作，將有助於建立更具韌性、可持續性及適應性的城市系統。最終，這些努力將顯著提升城市韌性，幫助城市應對日益嚴峻的都市洪患與氣候變遷挑戰。

Urbanization is a complex and multi-dimensional process involving land use and demographic changes. As cities continue to grow, they consume natural resources quickly to satisfy the basic needs of their growing residents. Consequently, this growth is mainly driven by urban citizens, resources, and the economy, which has resulted in advancements in knowledge, innovation, and social activities in an attempt to enhance urban livability. However, urbanization also has negative effects like inefficient land use, urban sprawl, and high population density. These challenges disrupt the local and urban ecosystems and increase the risk of natural disasters, particularly flooding. Despite previous studies on flood risk prevention and mitigation, there remains a limited understanding of the connection between urban development and flood risk within cities. The complex factors linking urbanization to flood risk are not fully understood, especially regarding urbanization dynamics.
The study aims to understand the relationship between urban development and flood risk, focusing on how urbanization patterns influence flood susceptibility in rapidly growing cities. It examines key characteristics of urban flood risk and urbanization dynamics, emphasizing the roles of at-risk elements, location attributes, and flood events in shaping urban flood risk. The study proposes a comprehensive framework, integrating quantitative methods with GIS-based spatial analysis techniques, including bivariate spatial autocorrelation and K-means clustering, to assess the spatial distribution patterns and flood risk intensity characteristics. The methodology consists of four steps: (1) identifying three essential urban flood risk factors, especially using a 2D flood simulation model that aims to generate flood disaster maps; (2) quantifying flood risk elements relative to two key factors in each element; (3) creating flood risk maps to monitor spatial patterns and trends; and (4) applying BiLISA to investigate the spatial correlation between urbanization and flood risk, along with defining flood risk characteristics through K-means clustering, aims to clarify the spatial dynamics between urbanization and urban flood risks. This framework’s Opposite Factors of the Risk Elements Method can improve risk planning and decision-making. Examining urban flood risk through three integrated approaches customizes strategies to address specific flood dynamics, enhancing resilience.
The research employs a case study in Nakhon Ratchasima, Thailand, using data on urban flood risk mapping to assess urbanization's impact. This framework can then inform inclusive decision-making processes in future sustainable urban planning and development without the need for large datasets, making it adaptable in data-scarce environments. The contribution of this research is grounded in its potential to clarify the complexities surrounding the relationship between urbanization and urban flood risk. By addressing these complexities, the study presents a comprehensive quantitative framework, aiming to provide guidance for a deeper insight into how urbanization influences flood risk in the urban areas of Nakhon Ratchasima.
The framework provides insights into the dynamics of urban flood risk, emphasizing how rapid urbanization disrupts natural water flow and expands hazard-prone areas. Although disaster severity has decreased in some cases, increased hazard exposure has heightened flood risks, especially in densely populated and low-lying regions. Urban growth frequently extends into high-risk zones due to land use limitations, planning deficiencies, and regulatory constraints, which reduce resilience and increase vulnerability.
Both planned and unplanned development have significantly influenced urbanization in Nakhon Ratchasima. The second set of comprehensive city land use regulations, designed to promote economic growth, initially facilitated urban expansion by enlarging designated development areas by 500%. However, the lack of comprehensive land use planning and regulatory enforcement since 2011 has led to rapid and uncontrolled growth. As a result, this expansion extends beyond city boundaries, particularly northward into flood-prone zones. This trend is mainly shaped by state-owned land to the south, including military zones and agricultural reform areas legally restricted from development, limiting growth options and pushing development into more hazard and exposure areas. Despite its strengths, the framework has limitations concerning data availability, scale, and model simplifications, which may impact assessment accuracy and miss key risk trends.
Future research should focus on three strategic areas to address these challenges. Improving data capabilities is essential, as is using advanced technologies to enhance data collection, accuracy, efficiency, and real-time monitoring. Studying temporal dynamics through longitudinal research will provide insights into how flood risks evolve and change over time, influenced by urban growth, land use changes, and environmental conditions. Expanding risk assessment approaches by including multi-criteria analysis will enable a more comprehensive evaluation of different risk factors, ensuring thorough, data-driven risk management. Moreover, promoting community-centered resilience is crucial, highlighting the importance of active public involvement in flood risk planning and preparedness. Integrating climate adaptation strategies will strengthen the framework’s ability to handle future climate-related risks effectively. Developing policy-driven solutions and encouraging interdisciplinary collaboration will also help create more robust, sustainable, and adaptable urban systems. Ultimately, these efforts will significantly improve urban resilience, helping cities manage the growing challenges of urban flooding and climate change.

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