本研究旨在透過反事實模擬比較單一定價、變動定價與類動態定價三種策略下之模型推估門票收入，探討中華職棒不同門票定價策略的收入差異。本研究使用 2024 與 2025 年賽季逐場資料，結合多元迴歸模型與對數迴歸模型，分析影響進場人數及與之相關的因素，並模擬各場次在不同定價策略下之門票收入。實證結果顯示，非大巨蛋場次之平均票價指標與進場人數呈負向關聯，且價格彈性偏低。人氣啦啦隊成員出席、假日賽事與主題日活動均與進場人數呈顯著正相關；勝率、先發投手防禦率與明星球員出賽等賽場上表現變數則未與進場人數顯著相關，此結果與大眾對於中華職棒從傳統競技導向轉向娛樂體驗導向的印象相呼應。在定價策略模擬方面，變動定價相較於單一平日定價具有較高的推估門票收入；若進一步進行類動態定價模擬，六支球團之推估門票收入皆有增加。如果球團的目標不在最大化門票收入，那麼目前的門票收益管理可能已經達到最適境界。

This study uses counterfactual simulations to compare estimated ticket revenue under three pricing strategies: uniform pricing, variable pricing, and quasi-dynamic pricing, thereby examining revenue differences across ticket pricing strategies in the Chinese Professional Baseball League. Using game-level data from the 2024 and 2025 seasons, this study combines multiple regression and log-linear regression models to analyze factors associated with attendance and simulate ticket revenue for each game under different pricing strategies. The empirical results show that, for non-Taipei Dome games, the average ticket price index is negatively associated with attendance, while price elasticity is relatively low. The presence of popular cheerleaders, holidays, and theme days is significantly and positively associated with attendance; in contrast, on-field performance variables such as win probability, starting pitchers’ ERA, and star player appearances are not significantly related to attendance. This finding may be consistent with the public perception that CPBL has shifted from a traditional competition-oriented model toward an entertainment-experience-oriented model. In the pricing simulations, variable pricing generates higher estimated ticket revenue than uniform weekday pricing. When quasi-dynamic pricing is further simulated, estimated ticket revenue increases for all six teams. However, if teams pursue objectives other than maximizing ticket revenue, their current ticket pricing strategies may still be reasonable.

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