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研究生: 邱映菱
Chiu, Ying-Ling
論文名稱: 基於隨機需求與排放交易規範的閉環雙通路供應鏈之研究
Study of a Closed-Loop, Dual-Channel Supply Chain with Stochastic Demand Rates and Cap-and-Trade Regulations
指導教授: 林仁彥
Lin, Jen-Yen
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 工業與資訊管理學系
Department of Industrial and Information Management
論文出版年: 2025
畢業學年度: 113
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 110
中文關鍵詞: 閉環式雙通路供應鏈隨機需求定價策略碳排放限額與交易賽局理論
外文關鍵詞: Closed-loop dual-channel supply chain, stochastic demand, pricing strategy, cap-and-trade, game theory
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  • 氣候變遷的關鍵原因之一在於溫室氣體排放過高,導致全球暖化,各國政府逐漸意識到環境污染的嚴重性,紛紛推動碳排放相關政策以達成減碳目標。隨之,許多企業開始重視回收與再製造,推動循環經濟的發展。過去的文獻大多集中於消費者使用後產品的回收,與此不同的是,本研究參考製造商的內部回收系統,專注於企業將生產過程中的邊角料或下腳料再製成新產品。本研究以此為出發點,構建不同的策略模型,假設供應鏈中包含製造商、零售商與消費者,並納入雙銷售通路、需求不確定性和碳排放限額與交易,以滿足市場需求並兼顧永續發展。

    本研究運用Stackelberg 賽局理論,探討以製造商為領導者、零售商為跟隨者的雙通路供應鏈,製造商如何在隨機需求結合排放交易規範下決定最佳定價與生產量。考量到多生產雖有助於因應不穩定的需求、降低缺貨風險,卻可能導致碳排放上升,因此本研究將生產量納入決策變數,以期達到提升利潤與降低環境污染的雙重目標。本研究同時建構回收與非回收兩種策略下之定價與生產決策模型,並比較其在分散式與集中式架構中的表現。我們發現回收策略無論於何種架構下皆可提升整體利潤並降低碳排放,但是同時發現若企業回收材料的再生材料轉換率偏低、實際回收量有限或製程本身碳排放較高,回收策略可能無法發揮預期的減碳效果,因此,在推動回收策略時,企業須整體評估回收效益與製程特性,以確保策略目標的實質落實,並為實務管理提供具體參考。

    One main cause of climate change is too much greenhouse gas, which leads to global warming. Governments have realized the problem and started to push carbon policies to cut emissions. In response, many companies now focus on recycling and remanufacturing, helping build a circular economy.Unlike most past studies that look at how consumers recycle used products, this study looks at how manufacturers recycle their own scraps to make new products.Based on this foundation, this study constructs two strategic models for a supply chain involving manufacturers, retailers, and consumers, integrating dual channels, stochastic demand, and cap-and-trade regulations to balance market responsiveness with environmental sustainability.

    This study uses Stackelberg game theory to analyze a dual-channel supply chain, where the manufacturer is the leader and the retailer is the follower. Under random demand and cap-and-trade regulations, it examines how the manufacturer determines optimal pricing and production quantity. While increasing production can reduce the risk of stockouts, it may also raise carbon emissions. Therefore, production quantity is included as a decision variable to balance profit maximization and environmental impact minimization.

    This study develops pricing and production models under recycling and non-recycling strategies, comparing their performance in both decentralized and centralized settings. Results show that recycling improves profit and reduces emissions in all cases. However, if the recycling rate is low, the volume is limited, or production is highly polluting, the benefits may not materialize. Firms should therefore assess both recycling effectiveness and production traits to ensure strategic goals are met and guide decision-making.

    摘要 I 英文延伸摘要 II 致謝 VI 目錄 i 表目錄 iv 圖目錄 v 第一章 緒論 (Introduction) 1 1.1 研究背景與動機 (Research Background and Motivation) 1 1.2 研究目的與問題 (Research Purpose and Question) 3 1.3 研究範圍 (Research Scope) 3 1.4 研究流程與架構 (Research Organization) 4 1.5 研究貢獻與結果 (Research Contributions and Results) 5 第二章 文獻探討 (Literature Review) 7 2.1 閉環式雙通路供應鏈 (Closed-loop Dual-Channel supply chain) 7 2.2 再生金屬材料 ( Recycled Metal ) 9 2.3 碳排放限額與交易 ( Cap and Trade ) 12 第三章 研究方法 (Research Methodology) 18 3.1 決策變數與參數定義 (Decision Variables and Parameter Definitions) 18 3.2 情境假設 (Situational Assumptions) 20 3.3 問題描述 (Problem Description) 21 3.4 需求函式 23 3.5 回收策略下之分散式雙通路供應鏈模型 24 3.5.1 分散式回收模型之情況一 30 3.5.2 分散式回收模型之情況二 32 3.6 非回收策略下之分散式雙通路供應鏈模型 33 3.6.1 分散式非回收模型之情況一 37 3.6.2 分散式非回收模型之情況二 39 3.7 回收策略下之集中式雙通路供應鏈模型 40 3.8 非回收策略下之集中式雙通路供應鏈模型 42 第四章 數值結果與分析 (Numerical Results and Analysis) 45 4.1 演算法建構 45 4.1.1 求解流程: 回收模型與非回收模型之情況一 46 4.1.2 求解流程: 回收模型與非回收模型之情況二 47 4.1.3 製造商最佳價格策略流程 47 4.2 機率密度函數 49 4.3 數值結果 50 4.4 敏感度分析與管理意涵 54 4.4.1 單位原生材料排放量之敏感度分析 54 4.4.2 單位製程排放量之敏感度分析 55 4.4.3 回收率之敏感度分析 57 4.4.4 再生材料轉換率之敏感度分析 58 4.4.5 比較不同市場需求對策略的影響 59 4.4.6 比較需求隨機變數平均數 mϵ 對策略的影響 61 第五章 結論與未來方向 (Conclusions and Future Research) 65 5.1 結論 (Conclusions) 65 5.2 未來研究方向 (Future Research) 67 參考文獻 67 附錄 A — 期望缺貨量與期望存貨量之推導過程 72 附錄 B — 分散式雙通路供應鏈回收模型求解推導過程 77 附錄 C — 分散式雙通路供應鏈非回收模型求解推導過程 86 附錄 D — 集中式雙通路供應鏈模型求解推導過程 93

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