| 研究生: |
施鈞明 Shih, Jyun-Ming |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
應用系統模擬於平交道之風險分析 |
| 指導教授: |
李治綱
Lee, Chi-Kang 林佐鼎 Lin, Tzuoo-Ding |
| 學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
| 系所名稱: |
管理學院 - 交通管理科學系 Department of Transportation and Communication Management Science |
| 論文出版年: | 2004 |
| 畢業學年度: | 92 |
| 語文別: | 中文 |
| 論文頁數: | 105 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | 平交道 、風險 、系統模擬 、固定警示時間 |
| 外文關鍵詞: | Grade crossing, Risk, Simulation, Constant warning time |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:54 下載:8 |
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平交道事故之發生頻率與事故規模使其平交道具有高度風險,避免其所造成龐大的生命、財產損失為平交道安全工作之重點。為提升平交道之安全性,許多學者提出理論與實測結果。為確保平交道改善策略能降低平交道之風險,同時避免實地安裝與佈設耗費時間與金錢的浪費。本研究建構平交道模擬系統,將平交道設施與交通狀況以模式表示,以驗證改善策略之成效。
本研究同時採用「連續性時間模擬」與「不連續事件模擬」進行,藉由模擬語言SLAMⅡ,以AweSim軟體為模擬環境,建構模擬模式。模式包括軌道系統、公路系統與平交道設施三個子系統,並描述三子系統間之交互作用關係。案例分析則以台南市生產路平交道為藍本,輸入實際之平交道號誌設施佈設、軌道與公路線型、列車與車輛資料,進行實證分析。
相對於生產路平交道現行之固定距離警示方式,改善策略以「固定警示時間」(Constant Warning Time)為對照。實驗後比較其事故發生率,並根據生命價值與時間價值計算事故成本與延滯成本,進行風險分析,驗證固定警示時間策略對提升平交道安全之整體成效。
The consequence and the frequency of grade-crossing accidents lead to the high risk of grade crossings. Reducing the lost at grade-crossing accidents is the important measure of grade-crossing safety. The study developed a simulation model including grade-crossing facilities and the traffic. Besides, it also demonstrates effects of the strategy of improve safety.
The study used both “Continuous Time Simulation” and “Discrete Event Simulation” to develop the model by simulation language SLAM Ⅱ and the software AweSim. The model includes railway system, highway system and grade-crossing facilities, describing their mutual relation. It also takes No.244 grade-crossing at Tainan for case study, and inputs all the data of facilities, geometric and vehicles for demonstration.
Contrast to the current “Fixed Distance Warning”, we use “Constant Warning Time” (CWT) modeling improve strategy. The probability of accident could be get, then we measure “Accident Cost” and “Delay Cost” by VOL (value of life) & VOT (value of time) for risk analysis. Thus, we verify the total effects of CWT improving grade-crossing safety.
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