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研究生： 李思嫻
Lee, Szu-Hsien
論文名稱： 航空貨物期權合約之定價和預留問題
Air cargo pricing and reservation under option contract
指導教授： 張秀雲
Chang, Shiow-Yun
學位類別： 碩士
Master
系所名稱： 管理學院 - 工業與資訊管理學系
Department of Industrial and Information Management
論文出版年： 2018
畢業學年度： 106
語文別： 中文
論文頁數： 58
中文關鍵詞： 航空貨物 、期權合約 、容量定價 、預留問題
外文關鍵詞： Air cargo, Option contract, Capacity pricing policy, Capacity reservation problem
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    • 期權合約在航空貨運業越來越多被應用，因為它能有效降低貨運航空公司的產能利用率風險。航空貨運承攬業根據貨運航空公司發布的預留價格與行使價格預先保留特定的容量，並當市場需求確定後，再決定欲執行的數量。當航空貨運承攬業預訂的數量不能滿足其合約市場需求時，可以從現貨市場以現貨價格購買所需的數量。
    本研究考慮了五項行為因子，作為航空貨運承攬業向貨運航空公司預留其貨位數量的評估，分別為：「價格」、「貨物安全」、「運送效率」、「客戶服務」、「設備便利性」，以提供航空公司供給端因應方案，並作為其行銷策略上之參考與借鏡。此外，我們討論多家航空貨運承攬業及多家貨運航空公司相互競爭的情形，以求出彼此的最佳定價與預留政策。
    透過數值分析的結果，我們注意到當貨運代理商的數量增加時，會因為價格戰的競爭而利潤下滑，因此貨運代理商可以考慮互相合作甚至是合併的方式，以提高市場力量，獲得聯合最佳利潤。另一方面，承運人的重點不應只侷限於產能利用率，因為更高的利用率並不總是導致更好的利潤，應該考慮和貨運代理商合作，藉由降低營運成本、提供更好的服務品質以及培養忠實顧客，降低客戶對價格的敏感性等來提升利潤，本研究的數據結果也顯示，當客人不再是價格導向主義，了解一分錢一分貨的道理，對於品質好的承運人，縱使價格偏高，顧客也都願意買單。因此，如果雙方合作能獲得更大的市場及更忠實的客戶，那麼對彼此來說皆是有利的。

    Option contracts are increasingly applied in the air cargo industry because it effectively reduces the capacity utilization risk of cargo airlines. The air freight forwarder reserves a certain amount of capacity based on the reserve price and execute price offered by the air cargo carrier, and determines the quantity to be executed after the market demand is realized. When the amount of capacity reserved by the forwarder does not meet the contract market demand, the required quantity can be purchased from the spot market at the spot price. In addition to price, the study considered four behavioral factors, goods security, transport efficiency, customer service, and equipment convenience, as assessment criteria of the amount of capacity reserved by forwarders. We discuss multiple air freight forwarders and air cargo carriers competing with each other and determine the optimal pricing and reservation policy for each of them. Through the results of numerical analysis, we noticed that when the number of forwarders increases, the profits will decline due to the price wars. Therefore, forwarders can consider cooperation or even mergers to increase market power. On the other hand, the carrier's focus should not be limited to capacity utilization because higher utilization does not always lead to better profits, and should consider cooperation with forwarders which can increase profits by reducing operating costs, providing better service quality and cultivating loyal customers.

    摘要.................................................................................................i 目錄..............................................................................................viii 圖目錄.............................................................................................x 表目錄............................................................................................xi 第一章 緒論.....................................................................................1 1.1 研究背景與動機..........................................................................1 1.2 研究目的....................................................................................2 1.3 研究範圍與限.............................................................................3 1.4 研究流程....................................................................................3 第二章 文獻回顧..............................................................................5 2.1 航空貨運業................................................................................5 2.2 期權合約...................................................................................6 2.3 託運選擇行為............................................................................7 2.4 航空貨運收入管理....................................................................10 第三章 期權合約之定價和預留模型.................................................12 3.1 問題與背景描述........................................................................12 3.2 假設與限制式...........................................................................13 3.3 符號定義..................................................................................14 3.4 模式建構..................................................................................16 3.5 小結.........................................................................................18 第四章 數值分析.............................................................................20 4.1 單一貨運代理商與單一承運人....................................................20 4.2 多家同質性貨運代理商與單一承運人.........................................21 4.2.1 多家同質性貨運代理商的數值分析..........................................22 4.2.2 多家同質性貨運代理商對總容量的變動...................................23 4.2.3 多家同質性貨運代理商對平均現貨市場價格的變動..................24 4.2.4 多家同質性貨運代理商對合約市場需求不確定性的變動...........24 4.3 多家異質性貨運代理商與單一承運人.........................................27 4.3.1探討多家異質性貨運代理商對合約市場最大需求量的變動.........28 4.3.2探討多家異質性貨運代理商對合約市場價格變化量的變動.........29 4.3.3探討多家異質性貨運代理商對合約市場價格競爭敏感性的變動..30 4.4 單一貨運代理商與多家承運人.....................................................32 4.4.1單一貨運代理商與多家承運人之分開收費模型分析...................32 4.4.2單一貨運代理商與多家承運人之統一收費模型分析....................36 4.5 多家貨運代理商與多家承運人.....................................................41 4.5.1多家貨運代理商與多家承運人之總合約市場最大需求量為300...41 4.5.2多家貨運代理商與多家承運人之總合約市場最大需求量為600..45 4.6 小結............................................................................................49 第五章 結論與未來研究方向...............................................................52 5.1 結論與建議..................................................................................52 5.2 未來研究方向..............................................................................53 參考文獻...........................................................................................54

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