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研究生: 姜蕙瑜
Chiang, Hui-Yu
論文名稱: 每股盈餘、石油價格變動率及消費者信心指數對股票報酬率之影響
The Effect of Earnings Per Share, The Oil Price Change Rate and Consumer Confidence Index on Stock Returns
指導教授: 蔡群立
Tsai, Chun-Li
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 社會科學院 - 經濟學系
Department of Economics
論文出版年: 2017
畢業學年度: 105
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 67
中文關鍵詞: 星期效果最小平方法之面板修正標準差估計量股票報酬率盈餘宣告日
外文關鍵詞: the week effect, panel-corrected standard error, stock returns, earnings announcement date
相關次數: 點閱:105下載:12
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  • 每股盈餘、石油價格或是消費者信心指數,對於股票報酬率都有一定程度的關聯,但由於先前文章大多只有研究股票報酬率本身的星期效果,並沒有著重在其他變數的星期效果對股票報酬率之影響。因此本文欲以美國為研究對象,探討每股盈餘在宣告日當天、石油價格變動率,以及消費者信心指數分別對股票報酬率的影響,並加入星期效應之觀察。

    本文首先對每股盈餘、石油價格和消費者信心指數的相關研究進行整理;接著透過對文獻研究方法與模型設定的回顧,借鑒參考基礎上提出本文的模型設定。使用Compustat資料庫取得美國各產業2000-2009年資料,分別對每股盈餘、石油價格變動率和消費者信心指數與股票報酬率的關係進行實證研究,最後對實證結果進行分析解釋。

    本文實證結果顯示,每股盈餘之宣告日為星期一與星期五時,廠商每股盈餘對廠商的股票報酬率有非常顯著的正向關係,這表示廠商股票報酬率可能受到星期效果影響,且每股盈餘的上升對於廠商有提高股票報酬率。金融危機爆發前,石油價格變動率與股票報酬率並沒有太顯著的關係存在,而在金融危機爆發後,石油價格變動率對股票報酬率是有顯著的正向關係存在。另外,消費者信心指數的上升對於廠商有提高股票報酬率的效果。

    This study mainly examined the relationship between earnings per share, the oil price change rate, consumer confidence index and stock returns, also adding the observation of the week effect.

    We use the data of US industry from 2000-2009 to conduct empirical research.

    The result shows that there is a positive relationship between earnings per share and stock returns on Monday and Friday. Before the financial crisis, there is no significant relationship between the oil price change rate and stock returns. However, after the financial crisis, there is a significant positive relationship between the oil price change rate and stock returns. Moreover, the increase of consumer confidence index will increase stock returns for the manufacturers.

    目錄 第一章 緒論 1 第一節 研究背景與動機 1 第二節 研究問題 5 第三節 研究流程與架構 5 第二章 文獻回顧 7 第一節 盈餘與股票報酬率之關聯性 7 第二節 石油價格與股票報酬率之關聯性 10 第三節 消費者信心指數與股票報酬率之關聯性 12 第四節 星期效果與股票報酬率之關聯性 14 第三章 研究方法 16 第一節 追蹤資料(Panel Data) 16 第二節 最小平方法之面板修正的標準差估計量(PCSE) 18 第三節 每股盈餘與股票報酬率分析 20 第四節 石油價格變動率與股票報酬率分析 22 第五節 消費者信心指數與股票報酬率分析 25 第六節 每股盈餘、石油價格變動率、消費者信心指數與股票報酬 率分析 28 第四章 實證結果與分析 32 第一節 資料來源與基本統計分析 32 第二節 實證結果分析 36 第五章 結論與建議 58 第一節 結論 58 第二節 建議 61 參考文獻 62

    一、中文部分
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    3. 鄭雅文(1993),「盈餘宣告時點與股價報酬關聯性之研究」,國立台灣大學會計學研究所未出版碩士論文。
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    10. 黃旭淳(2005),「國際原油價格對總體經濟變數之影響」,國立交通大學經營管理所碩士論文。
    11. 李呈穎(2005),「消費者情緒對於股票報酬的預測能力」,國立中央大學財務金融研究所碩士論文。
    12. 張偉諒(2007),「消費者信心指數與台灣股票市場相關性之研究」,國立中央大學財務金融學系碩士在職專班碩士論文。
    13. 林瑞怡(2009),「消費者信心指數、股票市場與總體經濟波動之研究─以美國市場為例」,私立世新大學財務金融學研究所碩士論文。
    14. 劉張旭(2010),「日曆異常效應:國際主要股票市場之比較研究」,國立臺灣大學國際企業學研究所碩士論文。
    15. 卓孟瑾(2010),「消費者信心指數與台灣股市及總體經濟指數之相關性研究」,私立世新大學財務金融研究所未出版碩士論文。
    16. 劉妤珊(2012),「通膨與股價之關聯分析-台灣案例」,國立中正大學國際經濟研究所碩士論文。
    17. 劉冠宏(2012),「股票報酬與消費者信心指數及廠商營業氣候關係之探討」,私立逢甲大學財務金融學所碩士論文。
    18. 廖瑩靜(2014),「探討原油價格、美元指數、消費者物價指數、消費者信心指數關聯性之研究」,國立中正大學財務金融研究所碩士論文。
    19. 林彥豪(2016),「油價、ISM製造業指數、消費者信心指數、股價及實質生產之研究」,國立臺灣大學經濟學研究所碩士論文。

    二、西文部分
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