大眾運輸導向發展(Transit-Oriented Development, TOD)為近年全球城市規劃的重要策略，強調透過提升公共運輸節點周邊土地使用效率與混合性，以減少對私人運具的依賴並促進永續交通發展。為檢視此理念在臺灣都會區的適用性與實證表現，本研究以臺中都會區之27座臺鐵車站為研究對象，探討不同距離範圍內建成環境特性對車站運量之影響。研究中利用QGIS劃設步行等時圈(0-5分鐘、5-10分鐘、10-15分鐘)並擷取土地利用現況，搭配多項空間變數如商業、住宅、公共設施面積、土地混合使用熵值、人口密度與交通區位變數，建立解釋車站運量的統計模型。分析方法包含普通最小平方法(OLS)、Ridge、Lasso、Elastic Net以及隨機森林等多元迴歸模型，並以K-means集群分析解構車站發展樣態。
研究結果顯示，不同距離範圍內的土地利用密度對運量具不同的影響，且模型間預測效能存在差異，顯示車站運量受多層次空間因素交互影響。研究成果可為未來鐵路車站周邊土地規劃與交通整合政策提供具體參考，並補足臺灣TOD實證研究在地區尺度與模型應用上的研究缺口。

Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) emphasizes improving land-use efficiency and mixed-use development around public transit nodes to reduce private vehicle dependence and promote sustainable transportation. To assess its applicability in Taiwan, this study investigates 27 Taiwan Railway (TRA) stations in the Taichung metropolitan area, analyzing the influence of built environment characteristics on station ridership across different distance ranges. Pedestrian isochrones (0–5, 5–10, and 10–15 minutes) were delineated using QGIS, and current land-use data were extracted. Spatial variables, including commercial, residential, and public facility areas, land-use mix entropy, population density, and transportation accessibility, were incorporated into multiple regression models (Ordinary Least Squares, Ridge, Lasso, Elastic Net, and Random Forest), supplemented by K-means clustering to classify station development patterns.
Results reveal that land-use density within different distance ranges exerts varying effects on ridership, and predictive performance differs among models, highlighting the interactive influence of multi-level spatial factors. These findings provide practical references for land-use planning and transportation integration policies around railway stations and help address the regional-scale and modeling gaps in empirical TOD research in Taiwan.

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