簡易檢索 / 詳目顯示

研究生: 賴鈺婷
Lai, Yu-Ting
論文名稱: 未來設計對地方產業發展的時間偏好影響研究
The Impact of Future Design on the Time Preference for Local Industrial Development
指導教授: 郭彥廉
Kuo, Yen-Lien
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 社會科學院 - 經濟學系
Department of Economics
論文出版年: 2023
畢業學年度: 111
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 122
中文關鍵詞: 跨代回溯觀點時間偏好率地方產業發展
外文關鍵詞: Intergenerational retrospective viewpoints, Time preference, Local industry development
相關次數: 點閱:121下載:1
分享至:
查詢本校圖書館目錄 查詢臺灣博碩士論文知識加值系統 勘誤回報
  • 地層下陷是不可逆現象,本實驗假設地方政府設立永續經營地方產業提案,透過外部效益的補貼,減緩環境遭受衝擊,衡量受試者的時間偏好率差異。然而,時間偏好率等同於受試者對時間的期望報酬率。因此,本研究結合有無跨代回溯實驗、居住地遭受地層下陷衝擊、教育程度、社會價值傾向與風險趨避程度等等的因素,探討哪些因素能有效降低受試者對永續產業提案的期望報酬率。
    本研究將實驗地點分為社區與學校實驗,社區實驗以社區居民為受試者,在遭受地層下陷衝擊地區與沒有地層下陷的地區進行,學校實驗則以學生為受試者,兩實驗皆隨機選取各半數受試者進行跨代回溯觀點,並使用 Tobit model 分析受試者時間偏好率會受到哪些變數影響。實證結果發現社區實驗中,學歷、年齡越高受試者以及曾連署環保議題請願書之受試者,傾向支持此提案讓地方產業永續,願意遞延至未來領取報酬,時間偏好率降低;學校實驗發現,居住最久地區為外國之受試者,對於產業造成的環境衝擊意識較低,時間偏好率提高。雖然跨代回溯實驗效果僅在學校實驗中出現,但與過去相關的環境態度,影響受試者對地方產業永續提案的看法,仍表示回顧過去的行為有一定的效果。

    Land subsidence is irreversible phenomenon. As a consequence, This experiment assumes that the local government establishes a sustainable local industry proposal to mitigate environmental impacts through subsidies of external benefits, and measures the difference in time preference rates of the subjects. And then, the rate of time preference is equivalent to the expected rate of return. So The subjects' time preference may be affected by the non-retrospective viewpoints or retrospective viewpoints treatment, the impact of land subsidence in their place of residence, education level, social value orientation and risk aversion, etc. This research examine which factors are effective in decreasing the expected rate of return on the proposal of the sustainable industry.
    In this research, the experimental sites were divided into community and school experiments. The community experiments were conducted with community residents as subjects who suffered from the impact of land subsidence and without land subsidence, and then the school experiments were conducted with NCKU students as subjects. In both experiment sites, half of the subjects were randomly selected for the intergenerational retrospective viewpoints, and then the Tobit model was used to analyze the data. The analysis result of community experiment reveals that the subjects who is higher education, age and those who had signed a petition about environmental issues. They tended to support the proposal to make local industries sustainable, deferring the payment to the future and reducing the time preference rate. The school experiment found that the subjects who had lived abroad for long time, be less awareness of environmental and therefore they had higher time preference rates. Furthermore, the effect of the intergenerational retrospective viewpoints experiment was only seen in the school data, and then the environmental attitudes associated with the past influenced the subjects' perceptions of local industry sustainability proposals, indicating that the retrospective behavior has some effect.

    第一章 緒論 1 第一節 研究背景 1 第二節 研究動機 2 第三節 研究目的 3 第二章 文獻回顧 5 第一節 跨代回溯觀點與想像未來世代相關文獻 5 第二節 社會價值傾向相關文獻 8 第三節 時間偏好相關文獻 8 第四節 文獻總結 10 第三章 研究方法 11 第一節 理論模型 11 第二節 變數處理 12 第三節 實驗地點的選擇 16 第四節 問卷設計 19 第五節 焦點團體及試測 26 第六節 社區實驗受試者報酬計算 30 第四章 實證分析 31 第一節 樣本蒐集與變數選取 31 第二節 敘述統計 35 第三節 變數說明 49 第四節 分析結果 51 第五章 結論與建議 73 第一節 結論 73 第二節 政策建議 74 第三節 研究限制 75 參考文獻 76 附錄 80 附錄一 國立成功大學人類研究倫理審查委員會—審查通過證明 80 附錄二 實驗問卷 84 附錄三 社區實驗受試者問卷之統計 99 附錄四 學校實驗受試者問卷之統計 106 附錄五 兩實驗地點資料合併之迴歸結果 112 附錄六 Interval Regression 迴歸結果 116

    Abe, Makoto, and Mitsuru Kaneko. 2022. "Preference reversal: Analysis using construal level theory that incorporates discounting." Journal of Choice Modelling 45. doi: 10.1016/j.jocm.2022.100384.
    Ali Esfahbodi, Yufeng Zhang, and Glyn Watson. 2016. "Sustainable supply chain management in emerging economies:Trade-offs between environmental and cost performance." Int. J. Production Economics:350-366. doi: 10.1016/j.ijpe.2016.02.013.
    Andersen, Steffen, Glenn W. Harrison, Morten I. Lau, and E. Elisabet Rutström. 2008. "Eliciting Risk and Time Preferences." Econometrica 76 (3):583-618. doi: 10.1111/j.1468-0262.2008.00848.x.
    Cohen, Jonathan, Keith Marzilli Ericson, David Laibson, and John Myles White. 2020. "Measuring Time Preferences." Journal of Economic Literature 58 (2):299-347. doi: 10.1257/jel.20191074.
    Doyle, John R. 2013. "Survey of time preference, delay discounting models." Judgment and Decision Making 8 (2):116-135.
    Doyle, John R., Catherine H. Chen, and Krishna Savani. 2011. "New designs for research in delay discounting." Judgment and Decision Making 6 (8):759-770.
    Eckel, Catherine C., and Philip J. Grossman. 2008. "Forecasting risk attitudes: An experimental study using actual and forecast gamble choices." Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 68 (1):1-17. doi: 10.1016/j.jebo.2008.04.006.
    Hardisty, David J., Katherine F. Thompson, David H. Krantz, and Elke U. Weber. 2013. "How to measure time preferences: An experimental comparison of three methods." Judgment and Decision Making 8 (3):236-249. doi: 10.1017/s1930297500005957.
    Ioannou, Christos A., and Jana Sadeh. 2016. "Time preferences and risk aversion: Tests ondomain differences." Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 53 (1):29-54. doi: 10.1007/s11166-016-9245-8.
    Kuroda, Masashi, Michinori Uwasu, Xuan-Thanh Bui, Phuoc-Dan Nguyen, and Keishiro Hara. 2021. "Shifting the perception of water environment problems by introducing “imaginary future generations”—Evidence from participatory workshop in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam." Futures 126. doi: 10.1016/j.futures.2020.102671.
    Mentzakis, Emmanouil, and Jana Sadeh. 2021. "Experimental evidence on the effect of incentives and domain in risk aversion and discounting tasks." Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 62 (3):203-224. doi: 10.1007/s11166-021-09354-9.
    Nakagawa, Yoshinori, Real Arai, Koji Kotani, Masanobu Nagano, and Tatsuyoshi Saijo. 2019. "Intergenerational retrospective viewpoint promotes financially sustainable attitude." Futures 114. doi: 10.1016/j.futures.2019.102454.
    Nakagawa, Yoshinori, Koji Kotani, Mika Matsumoto, and Tatsuyoshi Saijo. 2019. "Intergenerational retrospective viewpoints and individual policy preferences for future: A deliberative experiment for forest management." Futures 105:40-53. doi: 10.1016/j.futures.2018.06.013.
    Nishimura, Naoko, Nobuhiro Inoue, Hiroaki Masuhara, and Tadahiko Musha. 2020. "Impact of Future Design on Workshop Participants’ Time Preferences." Sustainability 12 (18). doi: 10.3390/su12187796.
    Saijo, Tatsuyoshi. 2020. "Feture Design:Incorporating Preferences of Future Generations for Sustainability." In: Springer Singapore.
    Sardar, Ziauddin. 2010. "The Namesake: Futures; futures studies; futurology; futuristic; foresight—What's in a name?" Futures 42 (3):177-184. doi: 10.1016/j.futures.2009.11.001.
    Thaler, Richard. 1981. "SOME EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE ON DYNAMIC INCONSISTENCY." Economics Letters:201-207.
    Uwasu, Michinori, Yusuke Kishita, Keishiro Hara, and Yutaka Nomaguchi. 2020. "CitizenParticipatory Scenario Design Methodology with Future Design Approach: A Case Study of Visioning of a Low-Carbon Society in Suita City, Japan." Sustainability 12 (11). doi: 10.3390/su12114746.
    Van Lange, Paul A. M. 1999. "The pursuit of joint outcomes and equality in outcomes: An integrative model of social value orientation." Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 77 (2):337-349. doi: 10.1037/0022-3514.77.2.337.
    雲林縣口湖鄉公所。"口湖鄉志 上冊"。國家圖書館臺灣記憶系統。2012。<https://tm.ncl.edu.tw/> 。(2023-07-02)
    地層下陷防治資訊網。第一期地層下陷防治執行方案(84 年核定本)。無日期。〈http://www.lsprc.ncku.edu.tw/zh-tw/strategy.php?action=view&id=1 〉。(2023-6-27)
    地層下陷防治資訊網。第二期地層下陷防治執行方案(92 年核定本)。無日期。〈http://www.lsprc.ncku.edu.tw/zh-tw/strategy.php?action=view&id=2〉。(2023-6-27)
    地層下陷防治資訊網。雲林縣境高鐵沿線 3 公里寬範圍內公有合法水井封移實施計畫(94 年核定本) 。無日期。〈http://www.lsprc.ncku.edu.tw/zhtw/strategy.php?action=view&id=5〉。(2023-6-27)
    地層下陷防治資訊網。雲林地層下陷現況。無日期。〈http://www.lsprc.ncku.edu.tw/zh-tw/trend.php?action=view&id=18〉。 (2023-7-02)
    地層下陷防治資訊網。全台下陷狀況—110 年顯著下陷面積與最大下陷速率。無日期。〈http://www.lsprc.ncku.edu.tw/zh-tw/trend.php?action=view&id=4〉。(2023-7-02)
    食農教育資訊整合平台。在地特色—元長花生。無日期。〈https://fae.coa.gov.tw/food_item.php?type=AS02&id=121&local_id=176〉(2023/6/27)
    經濟部水利署。地層下陷狀況。無日期〈https://www.wra.gov.tw/cp.aspx?n=3679〉。(2023-7-02)

    下載圖示 校內:2025-08-01公開
    校外:2025-08-01公開
    QR CODE